For investment clues, under these three cycles, we need to look for four alphas: penetration, import substitution, internationalization and supply and demand gap. The three cycles determine that this is an era of industrial transformation. In this era, A-shares will also face met

Chen Guo, chief analyst of strategy at CITIC Securities

In summary, the background of the era we are living in now is three cycles: population cycle, Jugla cycle and carbon neutrality cycle.

For investment clues, under these three cycles, we need to look for four alphas: penetration , import substitution, internationalization and supply and demand gap. The three cycles of

determine that this is an era of industrial transformation. In the context of this era, A shares will also face metabolism. Therefore, when there is more and more evidence for the market to expect and believe in transformation, the dominance of small and medium-cap styles is A natural consequence.

The industry allocation of A shares needs to follow the principles of prosperity first, valuation second, and congestion third from the perspective of capital attributes and practice. In addition to tracking the prosperity, it is to follow the penetration rate, import substitution, internationalization and supply and demand gap. Waiting for and laying out the next prosperous track.

Under this principle, we believe that the new energy sector is heading towards differentiation. Its business outlook is slowly rising but is still relatively attractive. The valuation level is not low but has not shown obvious bubbles. The degree of institutional allocation is at a high level. Historically, this feature will not simply end here. Now we need to focus on industries and companies in new energy that can last longer or have more obvious advantages in rising prosperity.

Military industry is relatively speaking, in an era of uncertainty, the direction of prosperity logic is relatively certain. Its shortcoming is its investability at the micro level. Therefore, in addition to the industrial boom, what we need to observe is the advancement of military-civilian integration and military industry state-owned enterprise reforms. The continued advancement of these two fields will improve the performance realization and investability of military industry stocks. We are optimistic about this. We expect that the allocation ratio of military industry stocks among institutions will gradually increase.

and above are the latest information shared by Chen Guo, CITIC Securities Managing Director, Deputy Director of the Research Committee, and Chief Strategy Officer, at the CITIC Securities "Intelligent Future Focused on Growth" Multi-Industry Joint Strategy Conference on August 30. point of view.

Chen Guo proposed the "Golden Pit" and the "Recovery Bull" at the bottom of the market under the impact of the epidemic in 2020. In 2021, he proposed the move from the Mao Index to the Ning Portfolio, and was the pioneer of the "Ning Portfolio".

CITIC Securities Research Product Center compiled the key points of the speech and shared them with everyone.