In fact, several negative factors have appeared for a few days, including the recent strength of the US dollar, the depreciation trend of the RMB and non-US currencies, and the global market is also in the midst of a wave of adjustments. In addition, some economic data were not a

In fact, several negative factors have appeared for a few days, including the recent strength of the US dollar, the depreciation trend of the RMB and non-US currencies, and the global market is also in the midst of a wave of adjustments. In addition, some economic data were not as good as expected. Although the central bank cut interest rates in disguise, the market reaction was not big.

From a market perspective, after bottomed out for the second time, the second wave of rebound did not increase the volume, indicating that the market is still dominated by stock funds , because after a sustained rebound, the volume cannot be enlarged, and there is the possibility of adjustment at any time. . Another point is that the rotation of hot spots has accelerated in recent days, which is also a signal of adjustment.

Market adjustment expectations have been formed, and adjustments will come at any time. It may have been yesterday. The reason why it happened today is that some impact events have occurred.

Although we cannot say how influential these impact events are, they have changed the expectations of more and more funds to a certain extent. This is what happens with every market adjustment.

In this adjustment, the impact of northbound funds is considered to be one. It is inherently forward-looking to the index trend. This is also because some of the funds in it belong to large institutions. When large institutions operate frequently, you can see the direction of northbound funds. It will be used as a reference by many people.

In the past two days, northbound funds have begun to flow out continuously. More than 9 billion were sold on Tuesday, and more than 7 billion were sold today. Conditions for continuous selling have been formed. Now that funds like to gather in some leaders in the wind and photovoltaic industry, changes in northbound funds will have a greater impact on key stocks .

For example, CATL opened nearly 3 points higher and closed down nearly 6 points, an amplitude of almost 9%, which still has an impact on the wind and solar industry stocks.

There are also some factors, such as Huawei Ren Zhengfei’s low expectations for the global economy in the next three years, which will also stimulate the pessimism of funds, and many track stocks have been over-hyped recently. When pessimism appears, There is a need to adjust .

Another question, will the wind and solar industry stocks end?

This is the most difficult question to answer. Super sectors such as wind and photovoltaics have hundreds of billions of funds playing in it. Generally, it is "you finish singing and I will appear on the stage." A big drop or even a deep one. None of the adjustments can mean that track stocks have ended .

During the adjustment in March this year, many leading track stocks also experienced in-depth adjustments. However, after waiting for the market to improve, many leading stocks have doubled again, and Fengguang Electronics Chu has also experienced a second burst of speculation. This shows that One or two big drops or adjustments cannot be used as a verification of the end of the track..

There is also a signal to be wary of . This signal is that the super leader on the track adjusts at a high level. Especially when several leaders on the track make collective adjustments, it can at least mean that a high point in this track has appeared.

At the beginning of 2021, traditional white horse stocks were adjusted heavily, represented by Kweichow Moutai , China Duty Free, etc. Since then, these group stocks have gone through an adjustment cycle for more than a year and a half. Since then, track stocks have replaced grouping and become New style .

If we want to look at the situation of track stocks, we still need to look at leaders in the track such as wind and photovoltaics, such as Tianqi Lithium , CATL, etc. If there is a collective heavy volume adjustment at a high level, we should be careful.

Today, the stock price of CATL has a relatively large amplitude, and the volume has been huge in the recent period. In the later period, if continues to adjust the volume, we still need to pay attention to the risks..

Whether it is group stocks or track stocks, their rise is due to fundamental factors, but the dominance of funds, especially large funds, is a prerequisite. Recently, the manager of Huashang Fund talked about this strategy in the survey.

When some big funds begin to withdraw, the differentiation of funds will begin, and the adjustment cycle for group stocks and track stocks will arrive. We must pay attention here that the hype and trend of track stocks should not only look at fundamentals and profits, but also focus on the expectations of big funds.

Will the depreciation of the RMB affect the market's major adjustment trend?

This wave of depreciation of the RMB is still very large. From March to now, it has depreciated a total of 8.87%. If calculated on an annual basis, such a range is actually very large. .

In 2018 and 2019, the RMB devalued for two consecutive years, with the highest depreciation of 7.63% in 2018 and the highest depreciation of 4.77% in 2019. The depreciation was only 12% in two years. It depreciated by 8.87% in 5 months this year. The RMB is under pressure. Definitely .

In recent years, the depreciation of the RMB has rarely affected market trends. Since 2019, the market's expectations for the long-term depreciation of the RMB have not been that strong.. In particular, the central bank's actions at several critical moments have also reduced expectations of a sharp depreciation of the RMB.

In short, a one-day adjustment is not terrible. Although and Shanghai Composite Index also fell below the half-year line, the short-term trend is not optimistic. The key depends on whether the market can return to a stable state in the next few days. If a chain reaction forms, Then you should pay attention to the risks .