The involution of the convertible bond subscription is too serious, tens of millions of troops are fighting in a melee, and it is a typical situation where there are more monks than more people. Whether it hits or misses depends entirely on the face. This has caused many people to start buying the underlying shares to allocate bonds when convertible bonds are issued. However, many friends report that debt allocation fails in most cases. In fact, careful analysis of past data will reveal that the success of latent debt allocation will still be affected by many factors such as the timing of intervention, the market environment, the fundamentals of the underlying stock, the theme of the underlying stock, position management, safety cushion and so on. .
Today we will briefly introduce the impact of intervention timing and the market environment on debt allocation.
1. Regarding the timing of intervention, there is a saying that is most appropriate - the mantis stalks the cicada before the oriole follows.
Rank 1: Friends in this rank only start buying on the day when the convertible bonds are released and the underlying stocks open higher, and then allocate the bonds and sell the underlying stocks the next day. As far as the current debt allocation environment is concerned, There is a high probability of losing money at this level, and the reason for losing money is that the players at higher levels take over. In fact, this position is the cicada mentioned above.
Level 2: After the convertible bonds are approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, choose the opportunity to buy latently. When the underlying stock is announced to open higher, sell decisively to take profits, or keep the bottom position for allocation. This level cannot be guaranteed to be foolproof, and it will also be subject to risks such as the delay in issuance of convertible bonds and the bear market.
Rank 3: This is played by high-ranking masters. After the convertible bonds are approved by the issuance review committee, they will choose the opportunity to lurk. After the convertible bonds are approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the announcement of a higher opening for subscription, they will be sold in batches and will be retained depending on the situation. Partially allocate debt. This level cannot be guaranteed to be foolproof, and it will also be subject to risks such as the delay in issuance of convertible bonds and the bear market.
At present, most of the debt allocation players have begun to move from the first rank to the second and third ranks. It is conceivable that the debt allocation environment in the future will become more involuted and complex.
2. Let’s talk about the market environment:
When the overall market situation is very good, especially when it gradually comes out of the bottom of the bear market, latent debt allocation does have a high success rate. However, when the bear market falls, or the market begins to adjust from highs, latent allocations can easily be hung at the top of the mountain. For example, the market has been fluctuating and adjusting downward recently, which has resulted in the situation where many friends' latent positions were severely beaten.
So, is debt allocation a money-losing craft? A more accurate answer would be that benevolent people have different opinions. Factors such as rank, position, timing, environment, etc. will all affect the success rate of debt allocation. Therefore, bond allocation is not as profitable as winning a new bond lottery. This requires a certain understanding of the stock market and the ability to analyze and summarize oneself before it is recommended to participate. We will have the opportunity to gradually analyze other factors affecting debt allocation in the future.
Let’s talk about the recent information that players in the potential second position of debt allocation may be concerned about.
Just a few days ago, four good students from Bohui Shares, Zhongda Mining, Zhongtian Rockets, and Ruihuatai were sent away. This week, there is another good news. , the application of three new students to issue convertible bonds was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, namely Megmeet , Dongjie Intelligent, and Huiyun Titanium.
Previously approved (approved before August 18):
Latest approved (as of August 21):
The above convertible bonds have been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The specific subscription time will be updated and posted as soon as the company announces it ( Under normal circumstances, it ranges from 20 to 40 days after the approval announcement. In abnormal cases, it may take several months. issuance or final termination of issuance, so this is also one of the risks to be considered in potential debt allocation).
Under the new regulations, Shanghai-listed convertible bonds can still be allotted by the first party, but the stability of the allocation is affected by whether the major shareholders allot the full amount and the small shareholders rush to allocate the bonds.
Special statement: This article only represents personal research views and opinions. The content is also shared free of charge and does not constitute any investment advice. The data in this article are also excerpts compiled by individuals. If there is any discrepancy, please refer to the listing announcement.
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