Fundamental analysis:
Even under the protection of supply policies, safety accident inspections are the prerequisite for frequent disturbances in domestic coal mines. Increasing production lacks flexibility. The domestic guaranteed supply and production increase fell short of expectations, and the daily output growth rate was modest. The high price of imported coal has curbed the import enthusiasm of traders, and the rainy season in Indonesia is nearly one month earlier than in previous years. Natural disasters have occurred, actual production and shipping have been affected, and the supply of imported coal has been limited.
In the downstream, although the electricity consumption of the whole society fell by 2% month-on-month in August, it still increased by 3.6% year-on-year. The daily consumption of downstream power plants has always been maintained at 2 to 2.2 million tons, while the factory inventory has always been maintained at a low level. In October, the Daqin line is about to open for maintenance, and the pressure of power plant replenishment is becoming more and more significant.
technical analysis:
performance, the intraday double focus price oscillated higher and sentiment eased compared to the previous diving. Although there is a willingness to strengthen, it is under pressure again near the right shoulder of the head-to-point pattern. This is in line with our judgment of market pressure. Therefore, continue to pay attention to the performance of coal rebound in the evening, but there are still bearish opportunities under pressure.
Among them, the coking coal focuses on the 2800 integer pressure on the right shoulder, the short-term target is 2670, and the trend target is near 2600. Coke pays attention to the pressure near the right shoulder at 3450, and the short-term target near 3270.
hot rolled threaded
fundamental analysis:
Recently, there has been continuous energy consumption dual-control information fermentation, steel mills have strict production restrictions, and market confidence has been boosted. Last week's steel co-production stock data also showed that the inventory decline has expanded, and the demand for watches has increased. However, since the weekend, spot epidemics in some areas of Fujian and the impact of typhoons in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai have disturbed short-term demand. In addition, the price of bifocal disks at the raw material end plummeted, which affected the speculative sentiment of the bulls, and the steel disks of futures were also affected to a certain extent.
Generally speaking, the average daily output of crude steel and pig iron on the supply side in August continued to decline sharply year-on-year. The data shows that the current steel market is still in a situation where both supply and demand are weak. Pay attention to the specific implementation of the production reduction policy in various regions.
Technical analysis:
recently oscillated and fell,The hourly line has formed a downward channel. Expect prices to rebound in the evening, and focus on the pressure on the upper edge of the channel. If the pressure fails, prices may still step back. Based on the August data performance, the thread is mainly to seize high-altitude opportunities in the evening.
hot volume recently fell below the trend line support, and rebounded to near the trend line within the day and fell under pressure, indicating that the market's bull sentiment is not high. In the evening, pay attention to the price rebound to near the trend line to seize the short-term opportunity.
methanol
fundamental analysis:
dual control, environmental protection and the like Games Under the influence of this aspect, the supply in Northwest and other places has decreased, and some downstream enterprises in Shandong and other places are also subject to certain restrictions on loading and unloading trucks. The logistics freight is high and it is difficult for traders to operate cautiously.
Under the background that stocking continues, the strong state of the mainland market is unsolvable, and it will support the port market and disk to a certain extent. Whether and when imported goods can flow back has become a crucial node. At present, the receiving price of some parts of Shandong has reached the same level as Taicang spot. If the mainland continues to rise strongly, once the reversal space is opened, the port market will not be able to make a big dive.
technical analysis:
methanol bottomed out and rebounded,After closing the Zhongyang Xianxian, it returned to above the 3100 integer mark in late trading. The short-term bullishness continues after the daily yang and yin, the first support below is near 3060-3065, and the pressure above is the contract high near 3144. Pay attention to the 3060-3145 interval oscillating operation.
glass
Fundamental analysis:
recent North Shahe market traded flat, trade Business operations are flexible, downstream on-demand procurement is the main focus, and the wait-and-see attitude is relatively strong; most companies in the East China market focus on stable prices, and some companies' production and sales are still weak; the business investment sentiment in the central China market is average, and the overall production and sales are weakly balanced; the overall production and sales of companies in the South China market are still However, the transaction center is on the upside.
Under the expectation of peak demand season, the downstream rigid demand support has kept the domestic raw film prices strong, but some processing plants have tight funds and are still not motivated to take orders. Traders sell off. Domestic float glass companies have accelerated their inventory accumulation last week.
technical analysis:
rebounded after the glass daily test 2300-2310! But the daily line is still a bearish trend,The first pressure in the evening is at the integer 2390-2400 mark, just rebound and choose the high altitude!
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