On December 13, the RMB mid-price was 6.9746, down 181 points. The intermediate price on the previous trading day was 6.9565, and the onshore RMB closed at 6.9757 on the previous trading day.
Federal Dec The probability of hiking interest rates by 50 basis points in December is 74.7%
CME "Federal Observation": The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points to the range of 4.25%-4.50% is 74.7%, and the probability of hiking interest rates by 75 basis points is 25.3%; the probability of hiking interest rates by February next year is 35.0%, the probability of hiking interest rates by 100 basis points is 51.5%, and the probability of hiking interest rates by 125 basis points is 13.5%.
Goldman Sachs : The Federal Reserve will raise the bitmap to a new high of 5 to 5.25% this week. The United States is expected to raise interest rates three times next year.
The Federal Reserve will settle interest rates on Tuesday and Wednesday. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 0.5% on Thursday. Goldman Sachs expects that the bitmap may show that the economy will decline sharply in 2023, but the long-term and medium-term interest rate may rise. The Federal Reserve will raise the median bitmap by 50 basis points this week, that is, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times in 2023, to a new high of 5 to 5.25%, which is consistent with the bank's forecast of the US rate hike pace next year. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's statement that it will "continue" interest rate hikes are a reasonable move, which will become a "further" interest rate hike.
Goldman Sachs said that although the market generally expects a 0.5% interest rate hike in February next year, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently focused on falling rents, which is another indicator of inflation that the authorities are happy to see a slowdown in inflation and will not overreact to official data lagging next year.
Guan Tao : The rise and fall of the RMB does not depend on the strength of the US dollar and the interest rate spread between China and the United States, but on the fundamentals of the Chinese economy,
The rapid adjustment of the RMB exchange rate since March this year is a spontaneous correction of the market. So far, exchange rate adjustment has not affected domestic financial and price stability, and is not a constraint on the domestic monetary policy. On the contrary, the flexibility of exchange rate has increased, timely released market pressure, avoided expectations, played a role as a "shock absorber" that absorbs internal and external shocks, enhanced monetary policy autonomy, reduced the dependence on administrative intervention, and enhanced investors' confidence. The autonomy of domestic monetary policy next year depends to a certain extent on our tolerance for RMB exchange rate fluctuations.
At any time, factors affecting the rise and depreciation of the exchange rate are at the same time. Do not call "where to where to refer". The RMB exchange rate may rise or fall next year. The rise and fall of the RMB does not depend on the strength of the US dollar and the interest rate gap between China and the United States, but on the fundamentals of China's economic situation. It depends on whether we can do a good job in the "three stability" next year and promote the overall improvement of economic operation .
