Global macro
US stock Three major stock index futures both rose before the market
The number of people asking for unemployment benefits in the United States to December 3 was 230,000, and the previous value was 230,000. After the initial data was released, U.S. stock futures rose slightly, Nasdaq futures rose 0.56%, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.49%, and Dow futures rose 0.37%.
Dalio: The market underestimated Fed , and the interest rate may rise to a "destructive" level of 6%
The world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater founder Dalio warned on Wednesday that the Fed may push interest rates to a "very heavy damage and extremely destructive" level. The market underestimated this and did not respond, and US stocks may be about to fall. Dalio said that since inflation may remain in the range of 4.5%-5%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target, this means that the Fed will have to push the interest rate level to a level close to 6%. However, the stock market has not yet responded to the Fed's overshoot. On the contrary, the market has digested expectations of interest rate cuts and future inflation cooling.
Previously, Dalio had predicted that interest rates above 4.5% would trigger an economic recession, and U.S. stocks may plummet by 20%, consistent with the forecasts of Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank .
Bloomberg : 2023 global economic tragedy is rare in 30 years
Bloomberg Economic Research Economist Scott Johnson predicts that with the continued impact of the energy shock caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the growth rate of the US economy will be only 2.4% next year, a sharp decline from the estimated 3.2% this year, and it is also a new low since 1993 (excluding 2009 and 2020 affected by the financial crisis and the epidemic); at the beginning of next year, the euro area will fall into recession, and at the end of next year, the United States will fall into recession. In contrast, China's economy is expected to grow by more than 5% next year, mainly due to the rapid optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the government's support for real estate.
"Doctor of Doomsday" Roubini : If the US economy falls into a severe recession, the S&P 500 index will fall 25%
"Doctor of Doomsday" Nuriel Roubini said that if the US economy falls into the worst recession in more than 10 years, the S&P may fall 25%, the worst level in this bear market. He said that as the Fed raises interest rates with high inflation and low unemployment, it is unlikely that the United States, the world's largest economy, will avoid a recession; during short-term and mild recessions, the S&P 500 will usually fall 30% from its peak, while major stock indexes fell 50% during the 2008 global financial crisis. If we encounter a situation that is more serious than a short-term mild recession, but not as severe as the global financial crisis , the market still has 25% potential downside.
Bank: tech stocks are a "value trap". Investors should not rush to withdraw from US stocks
Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian believes that it will not be until December at least that professional investors will give up their long-term favor for growth stocks and instead accept inflation trading.
The current reality is that fund managers still have a largely prefer Internet and software companies compared to oil and gas producers. Although the classification index that tracks technology in the S&P 500 has fallen by 27%, Subramanian still believes that technology stocks are a "value trap." One of the main reasons why there is still a lot of room for rotation to the energy industry is that the industry is facing supply shortages, she said. In contrast, technology companies are facing overcapacity due to the increased demand caused by the epidemic and now have to lay off employees.
survey shows that most individual investors bet on the stock market bottoming out next year and plan to buy large technology stocks
A new survey by Finimize, London investment insight platform Finimize, despite facing a cost-of-living crisis, most individual investors plan to invest the same or more funds into the stock market in 2023 as they do this year.
survey shows that only 1% of individual investors said they plan to sell their investments in the new year, 65% said they would continue to invest, and 29% planned to increase their portfolio. Most (72%) of the respondents plan to increase their holdings of in stocks next year, and 64% prefer large technology stocks such as $ Apple (AAPL.US)$, $ Microsoft (MSFT.US)$, $ Google -C (GOOG.US)$ and $Meta Platforms (META.US)$.
Russia: Oil price ceiling has limited impact on oil production
Russia's Ministry of Energy refuted concerns that the oil price ceiling implemented by the G7G7 (G7) will put Russian oil production into chaos. "Our products have sufficient market principles in most markets," said Pavel Sorokin, first deputy minister of the Russian Ministry of Energy. "No fluctuations in oil production "are higher than those in the spring." Oil watchers are tracking Russia's oil production, fearing that the price cap imposed this week could force Russia to limit supply. Russia currently accounts for about 10% of global crude oil production. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country will not sell crude oil to any buyer who comply with the production restrictions, a decision that could lead to production cuts.
Hot News
Star tech stocks generally rose before the market
Oil stocks strengthened before the market till now, ExxonMobil rose more than 2%
$ExxonMobil (XOM.US)$, $Total (TTE.US)$ rose about 2%, and $BP (BP.US)$ and $Shell PLC (SHEL.US)$ rose more than 1%. On the news front, international oil prices rebounded after adjustments in the previous few trading days. The US and Blanc oil short-term rose by $0.4, and are now at $74.05/barrel and $78.26/barrel respectively. In terms of
stocks, ExxonMobil announced that the scale of its stock repurchase plan by 2024 will be expanded to US$50 billion, including US$15 billion in 2022.
Tesla China head Zhu Xiaotong promoted to Tesla CEO? Foreign media: Musk asked him to come to the Texas factory to capture the production capacity of
According to the media, $TSLA (TSLA.US)$CEO Elon Musk has "named" Zhu Xiaotong to the United States to help run the Texas Gigafactory. Sources said that Zhu Xiaotong has led a Chinese engineering team to the Texas Gigafactory this week to help supervise its capacity expansion. People familiar with the matter said it was not clear how long Zhu Xiaotong would stay here, nor whether he would retain his position in Asia. As of press time, Tesla fell by more than 1% before the market.
news said that Tesla's Shanghai factory shortened its working hours next week, and new employees were postponed to take up their jobs
According to reports, many people familiar with the matter said today that Tesla will shorten the working hours of production line workers in Shanghai as early as next Monday, and has postponed the work hours of some new employees. This further shows that the market demand for Tesla electric vehicles has not met expectations. The people familiar with the matter said that Tesla's Shanghai factory currently has two working shifts a day, each working 11.5 hours. After the adjustment, there were two shifts, but the working hours of each shift were reduced to 9.5 hours.
Bankers who promise to help Musk acquire Twitter are considering providing margin loans for mortgages using Tesla stock
According to market news, bankers who promise to provide financing for Musk's acquisition of $ Twitter (TWTR.US)$ are considering providing margin loans for mortgages using Tesla treasury to reduce Twitter's debt risks. They said margin loans are one of several options discussed by the banking group led by Morgan Stanley and Musk’s advisers to ease Twitter’s burden as Musk’s debts for the acquisition, focusing on how to replace $3 billion in unsecured debt.
sources said the current negotiations are preliminary and no decision has been made. Musk's representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
GameStop Q3 revenue hit the biggest decline in two years, and the game market overall declined this quarter
$GMEStop (GME.US)$Q3 net sales fell 8.5% to US$1.186 billion, compared with US$1.297 billion in the same period last year, lower than the US$1.39 billion forecast by analyst ; net loss was US$94.7 million, compared with US$105.4 million in the same period last year; adjusted loss per share was 31 cents, lower than expected 29 cents.
, Ryan Cohen, who became chairman last year, has been working to revive GameStop's growth, which has slowed as players move from buying game discs to digital downloads. Worse, GameStop's retail business was cancelled during the pandemic lockdown, and the supply restrictions on gaming consoles further affected performance. As of press time, GameStop has fallen slightly before the market trading.
Amazon , Google, Microsoft and Oracle were contracted by the US Department of Defense cloud computing
The US Department of Defense said $AMAZN.US, $Google-C (GOOG.US)$, $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ and $OrCL.US)$ will share a $9 billion hybrid contract to provide the US Department of Defense with global security cloud services. It is understood that the above four companies jointly provide the US Department of Defense with its Joint Combat Cloud Capacity (JWCC), and the relevant work will be carried out in Reston, Virginia and will be completed by June 8, 2028. It is worth mentioning that the contract awarding results, known as the "joint combat cloud capability" strategy, is in line with the efforts of the US Department of Defense to rely on multiple remote operating infrastructure technology providers rather than relying on a single company, a strategy advocated by Trump during his administration.
Asmai fell nearly 2% before the market. It is reported that Dutch wants to promote new chip equipment export ban on
$Asmai (ASML.US)$ fell 1.8% before the market was held at $590.55. It is reported that Dutch government officials plan to introduce control measures on China for new export chip manufacturing equipment, which may ban the sale of equipment that manufactures 14 nanometers or more advanced chips, and will reach an agreement with the United States as early as next month. The ban could hit Asmay. The latest annual report shows that China contributed about 15% of ASMA's revenue last year.
British American Tobacco: American consumers are turning to buying cheaper cigarette brands
$British American Tobacco (BTI.US)$ said that with rising prices and falling consumer disposable income, more and more consumers in the United States are turning to buying lower-priced cigarette brands. As inflation rates in parts of the United States and parts of Europe reach the highest levels in decades, consumer goods companies' business volume is extremely vulnerable to customers' budget reductions in order to save cash flow and then lower their budgets. The consumption level of tobacco market is gradually overflowing from high-priced high-quality products to products with lower profit margins.
focus Chinese stocks
Popular Chinese stocks collectively rose before the market
Bilibili rose more than 10% before the market, and the " Three-Body " animation was scheduled to be broadcast on Saturday
$Bilibili (BILI.US)$ rose more than 10% before the market to US$23.97. The "Three-Body Problem" animation will be broadcast at 11:00 this Saturday, with two episodes being broadcast on the first day. "Three-Body Problem" animation is produced by Yihua Kaitian as the co-producer. Yihua Kaitian Culture Communication Co., Ltd. is owned by , a subsidiary of , Tencent , and Bilibili affiliated company holds about 30%.
Shell rose nearly 4% before the market, and institutions are expected to return to positive for the whole year
$ Shell (BEKE.US)$ rose 3.88% before the market to $16.62. The first Shanghai Development Research Report pointed out that since Q4 2022, the country has improved the financing environment for real estate companies in many aspects such as credit, bonds, equity, and . Coupled with the continuous demand-side stimulus, the real estate industry is recovering. Beike's Q3 performance fully reflects that the company still has strong operational and profitability under the sluggish real estate market and epidemic prevention and control measures. The bank believes that with the recovery of the real estate industry and the optimization of epidemic prevention and control, the company's performance in 2022 is expected to return to positive.
Ctrip released the "2023 Tourism Revitalization Plan"
$ Ctrip (TCOM.US)$ officially launched the "2023 Tourism Revitalization Plan" and announced that it will launch a "triple strategy" to help industries and destinations "reunited" with travelers: by building 10 cultural and tourism industry incubation centers, "reconstructing the industrial ecology"; by creating thousands of destinations "reunited" experiences through thousands of local guides, "reconstructing brand value"; by promoting trillions of tourism consumption through 10 billion traffic four-season marketing, "revitalizing consumption confidence." As of press time, Ctrip rose by more than %.
Zhiwen Group Q3 net revenue exceeded expectations, with net profit of 535.8 million
$Zhiwen Group (MOMO.US)$ rose more than 14% before the market. The financial report shows that in the third quarter of 2022, Zhiwen Group's net revenue reached 3.233 billion (about US$454.5 million), exceeding the Wall Street 's expected 3.1341 billion yuan. Not measured in accordance with US General Accounting Standards, the net profit attributable to Zhiwen Group was 535.8 million (about US$75.3 million), and continued profit for 31 quarters.
U.S. stocks pre-market turnover TOP20
US stock macro calendar reminder:
21:30 Number of initial unemployment claims in the week ending December 3 (10,000)
23:30 The United States announced EIA natural gas inventory
02:00 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde delivered a speech
to be determined The Biden administration and U.S. oil industry executives held an online meeting to discuss how to support Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
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