Gold market analysis next week:
Gold news analysis: Spot gold hit a new high since August 10 to $1,804.34/ounce, as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave the green light this week to slow down interest rate hikes . The dollar index continued its decline last week, setting a low since June 29 to 104.367. However, there is uncertainty about the final peak of the Fed's interest rate , and the US non-farm data in November is improving, and the labor market tension is expected to become long-term. The Fed has a long way to go to fight inflation, which has reduced the rise in gold prices. Gold has restarted its rally, not only because Fed Chairman Powell admitted the need to slow down interest rate hikes, but signs of cooling inflation are likely to strengthen expectations that the Fed will adopt a less aggressive interest rate policy. analyst said that market expectations of weaker hawks in the Fed, and the market believes that the Fed will lower its interest rate hike to 50 basis points and may be suspended next year, which may limit the upside space of the US dollar. Strategists said: "Feder Chairman Powell hints that the Fed will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes next month, but that doesn't mean interest rates will not exceed 5%. Confirmation of a slowdown in tightening has prompted the market to buy gold, and despite this, considering that inflation will continue to plague the market for some time, it shows that the risk of policy tightening remains high. The current gold price trend may be the result of the last short positions being covered by . We still expect gold will be in The first quarter of 2023 fell. "
From the technical , gold opened on Friday at at 1802.11 US dollars per ounce. After the opening, the gold price showed a trend of falling first and then rising. The low point of the Asian and European session was $1,795, stabilizing, and then fluctuated in the range of 1795-1802. After the non-agricultural data was released, the gold price fell rapidly, and at the lowest level was 1778 and stabilized and hovered. The trend chart of gold daily line shows that after the daily line rises, the gold retreated and fluctuated yesterday. Although it rose, the pressure of 1804 has not been broken for a long time. In the short term, 1804 belongs to the medium-term turning point pressure. The 2-week line of gold closed positive. Just look at the weekly line, it still tends to be bullish next week, but the resistance on the left high point is around 1808, and it needs to be effectively broken. From the four-hour level, short-term gold breaks down 1795, and short-term 1804 small cycle double top pattern will be more stable. Below, pullback first wave focuses on the 1778 price level, which is also a top-bottom conversion support position, followed by 1773 level and the price below. The daily line has a long shadow negative line . Since the weekly line does not support large callbacks, it is still inclined to operate at low long next week. The non-agricultural data is better than expected, and the gold tune is looking for support. To sum up, in the operational ideas of gold next Monday, Wenbo recommends that the pullback should be mainly low-end, and the rebound should be supplemented by high-altitude. The above focus on the resistance of 1808-1813, and the below focus on the support of 1784-1779.
Crude oil market analysis next week:
Crude oil news analysis: US crude oil rose for the first time after three consecutive weeks of decline, with an increase of about 6.05%. Brent oil also remained synchronized, with an increase of about 3.62%. The decline in the US dollar has supported oil prices, tightening of the supply side has been positive for oil prices, and expectations of a recovery in demand in Asian countries on the demand side have rekindled, leading the rise in oil prices this week. Analysts said OPEC may cut production again on Sunday to further support oil prices, and if they do not, they may "hint" that production will be cut in the future. "What we have heard from OPEC in recent months is that they want to keep the oil price around $90," he said. He pointed out that when the oil price approached $100 in September, they cut production slightly, and when the price of Brent crude oil in October, they cut production by another 2 million barrels per day. The country's transformation of the epidemic strategy has rekindled the optimism of the country's demand recovery as the world's largest oil importer and the second largest oil consumer, boosted the global oil market and brought continued upward action to oil prices. The swift market response only confirms the fact that global market participants are paying more attention to changes in oil demand in Asian countries, which are not only now but in the future, the main drivers of global oil demand and oil prices. The decline in the U.S. dollar index supports oil prices.The tightening of the supply side supports oil prices, mainly manifested in the following three points: 1. US inventory has dropped sharply, and SPR reserves are insufficient; 2. OPEC+ may announce production cuts again or suggest production cuts in the future; 3. EU embargo on Russian oil worsens supply, and the oil price cap mechanism has made the worst.
From a technical point of view, crude oil opened at $81.430 per barrel on Friday. After the opening, the oil price fluctuated in a narrow range of . In the trend of , the low point hovered at the 80.7 line, and the rise of oil prices accelerated, with the highest being 82.2 line under pressure hovering. After the data was released, the US market gave a new low of 80.2 line and stabilized and rose, and the high point hovered at 82.1 line. The daily crude oil trend chart shows that the crude oil phased low point is around 73.50 and the bottom pattern of Dinghai Shenzhen is , which belongs to the bottom reversal pattern of , so it can be temporarily determined that the downward wave ends around 73.50. The market is currently in the first wave of rising overall. From a four-hour level, oil prices rebounded at $83.4 and encountered obstacles, which theoretically is expected to form a wave of top. Then, after encountering obstacles, the second wave of adjustment wave will appear, and the key point is that 83.4 will not break. Non-agricultural issues are better than expected, supporting oil price demand. Overall, the short-term operation ideas of crude oil next Monday Wenbo recommends that the rebound is mainly high-altitude, and the pullback is supplemented by low-tenths. The short-term focus on the upper short-term focus on the 82.2-82.7 line resistance, and the short-term focus on the 78.9-78.4 line support.
