reviewed on November 24th. Last night, there were a lot of good news, and there were even big positive policies that were about to lower the reserve requirement ratio. Many people were bullish on A shares , but A shares opened higher and today and immediately fluctuated and fell. Most sectors rose and fell and fell, which was basically consistent with what I predicted, and it was another black Thursday.
Let’s talk about A-shares first. Many people don’t understand why so many positive things are still falling? Why is my prediction so accurate? All sectors basically follow my expectations. Yesterday, bought at the bottom of and rushed to the top today, and then ate big meat and avoided the decline.
Review the stock market. The important thing is not to see whether the index is red or green. I said this. As long as it is not color blind, everyone will read it. The important thing when looking at the market is to understand the market logic, general trend judgment and position management of the stock market.
First talk about the market logic since November: I have already mentioned the core logic, which is that oversold rebounds , so Hong Kong stock rebounded the most. Hang Seng Medical rebounded the most, far exceeding A-shares, because Hong Kong stocks also had the largest decline, falling from 31,000 points in 2021 to 14,597 points in 2022, a drop of 60%. In contrast, A-shares only fell from 3,700 points to 2,883 points.
Many Hong Kong stocks fell 90%, Hang Seng Medical fell 80%, and the harshest real estate sector Country Garden fell 95%.
So oversold rebound of 30% is nothing. Many stocks rebounded by 100%, and it’s nothing. If you can’t settle the score, you will calculate it yourself. 100 yuan fell to 10 yuan, and 100% rose by 80%, and 60% rose by 30%, which is still equivalent to a 50% drop.
Is the current market awesome? Bear? The characteristic of
's super rebound is a return, like a counterattack, but definitely not. So starting last Wednesday, the main A-share and Hong Kong stocks began to ship, but because the bond market bubble burst, retail investors actively entered the market, and the main shipment was very slow, fluctuating and falling for six consecutive days, and the index fell by less than 60 points. However, the shipment trend remains unchanged. The obvious signal is: the sector is not sustainable, and the Chinese character and bank stocks cover the main shipment. After the oversold rebound ended, there was no sign of a big counterattack for the time being, because the funds that were bullish in the market were attracted to real estate, banks, securities companies , semiconductors, military industry, aviation, tourism, medical care, liquor, Chinese-first sectors, and other sectors. All those who could rise rose, and retail investors who chased highs were trapped again. So these days, the A-share market is very garbage, like a pool of stagnant water, and the shrinks the volume and are very strong. Today, the trading volume returns to 730 billion yuan. Retail investors who chase highs are suffering from the decline every day. If they can't stand it, they can only cut their losses. Retail investors such as
are almost the same to cut their losses. market bottomed out, and the main force will start the second wave.
So the general trend judgment: A-shares are still fluctuating to bottom out .
position management: It is currently a typical right-side trading. You need to be cautious when buying at the bottom. You can only go in and buy at the bottom after a big drop. You usually look at more and move less because no sector is sustainable, and retail investors will be trapped as soon as they chase the rise.
prediction is to avoid big drops and eat big meat. The only thing that is still interesting in the market at present is Hang Seng Medical and Hang Seng Technology, the traditional Chinese medicine sectors. It is hard to say whether it can continue. Choose the direction on Friday and next Monday, control the position , and wait patiently for the stock market to bottom out and rebound.
