Two days ago, the economic data for October was released, with many highlights and some unhappy things.
Today, we are in a heavy mood and take a look at the consumption data for October.
data is the best answer. However, we believe that there are invisible traps here. In addition, everyone knows that consumption is problematic, so where is the problem with consumption?
We all know that China's economy has three pillars: investment, consumption and export.
Judging from the economic data in October, investment and exports are still good. Investment increased by 5.8% from January to October and exports increased by 13%. In addition, the manufacturing industry, as the core of the national economy, also performed well, with a growth of 4%.
However, if we want to look at consumption data, it will be a little bit unsightly. Why is this? What is the problem here?
Let’s first look at the consumption data for October’s single month. How bad is it?
This picture is the official October consumption data chart. We can see several key points very clearly.
1. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October fell by 0.5%, that is -0.5%. There is also car sales supporting this. If cars are excluded, it will be -0.9%.
2. Let’s look at the segmented data. Except for the high growth in data such as grain and oil, food, beverages, Chinese and Western medicines and automobiles, consumption of petroleum and product categories has increased slightly, other segmented consumption data have all declined.
3. Among the segmented data, the worst declines were household appliances and audio-visual equipment, falling 14.1%, construction and decoration materials, falling 8.7%, and furniture, falling 6.6%. can clearly see the downward trend of real estate here, which has a great impact on related consumption.
4. We believe that the basic lives of ordinary people have not been greatly affected, and catering and shopping are still very lively. However, catering revenue actually fell by 8.1%, clothing, shoes, hats, and needles and textiles fell by 7.5%, and communication equipment fell by 8.9%. In comparison, grain, oil and food products increased by 8.3%. It can be clearly seen here that the people's daily consumption has shrunk to the most basic survival needs.
These data do seem to be a bit crumbling. The key is that there are two important consumer support in October, one is the National Day holiday, and the second is the Double Eleven fact that it started one month in advance. However, these two large-scale consumption opportunities cannot remember the data from October. What exactly happened here?
As we mentioned earlier, there are hidden traps in the data. In other words, the data on the surface is not good-looking, but in fact it cannot accurately reflect the real situation, and it cannot represent the trend.
We cannot look at the economy without the general background, and we cannot talk about data based on the general background.
The first major background is that in the past two or three years, China's economy has undergone three major strategic adjustments. First, economic structure adjustment, especially real estate, high-end manufacturing and the real economy; second, the strategy of developing the country through science and technology; third, financial order and risk resolution.
The second major background is that the complex and international political and economic situation and epidemic prevention and control have gone through tests.
Everyone knows that economic development has its own rules. Strategic adjustments require a certain period of time to feedback to the end of consumption, and there is a time difference here. Now it seems that this time will take two to three years.
To put it bluntly, we can regard the consumption data at the end of 2022 as the bottoming out of in the previous adjustment cycle, and the starting period of the new growth cycle. Why do we say this? Of course, it is well-founded.
The length is limited, and we are unlikely to talk about long-term discussions. We have a few basic views for your reference.
First, the adjustment of China's economy at the strategic level has been basically in place;
Second, the comprehensive deployment of economic stimulus policies this year, especially from 20 epidemic prevention items to 16 finance items, the policy-level actions have been in place;
Third, the twenty comprehensive deployment of future strategies is the new period of China's economy entering a new take-off period;
Fourth, the international political and economic situation, political war, economic war and military war, have all reached the final stage, and a new peace period is coming.
So, simply put, the problem of consumption is the economic environment and cycle issues, and the second is the problem of confidence.
At the end of 2022, we have seen the light.
