Chinese and US heads of state meet more than expected
China once again clarifies Taiwan's "red line"
Biden promises to increase the price and put forward the "five no and four unintentional" proposition
Control the risks of differences and build a "guardrail" for competition
Will China and the United States usher in a window period for improving relations?
The war in Russia and Ukraine continued Global economic under the background of recession
This G20 summit
Can this G20 summit
can provide a constructive solution for "co-recovery"?
"Looking at the world today"
Chinese and US heads of state meet to "direct the rudder"
Biden's commitment to "five nos and four unintentional" can it be implemented? Three major conferences of
East Asia Summit Series, G20, and APEC were held one after another, and the world focused on the "Asian Summit Season". As a top priority, the meeting between the Chinese and US dollar heads was specially arranged before the opening of the summit, which shows its importance and urgency, and also directly affects the tone and atmosphere of the summit. The scene of Chinese President Xi Jinping shook hands and greeting with US President Biden before the meeting was captured by global media footage. This long-lost picture between China and the United States eased the tension in the world.
This meeting of the head of state also set several "firsts": the first face-to-face meeting between the Chinese and US dollar in nearly three years since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the first face-to-face meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state since Biden took office as president, and the first meeting between China and the United States after completing their respective major domestic political agendas. The two sides had a frank and in-depth exchange of views on strategic issues in , Sino-US relations, and major global and regional issues. We hope to establish the tone of communication of "dialogue rather than confrontation, win-win rather than zero-sum" to highlight the importance of maintaining high-level strategic communication between the two sides.
During the meeting, Xi Jinping pointed out that China and the United States have gone through more than 50 years of ups and downs, with gains and losses, experiences and lessons, and should learn from history and face the future. "As the leaders of the two major powers of China and the United States, we must play the role of 'steering', and we should find the right development direction for bilateral relations and promote the upward improvement of China-US relations." Xi Jinping also systematically elaborated on the origin of the Taiwan issue and China's principled position, emphasizing that " Taiwan issue is the core of China's core interests, the foundation of the political foundation of China-US relations, and the first insurmountable red line in Sino-US relations."
Biden also promised the "four no and one unintentional" he had previously promised. That is, the United States does not seek to issue new Cold War , does not seek to change the Chinese system, does not seek to oppose China by strengthening alliance relations, does not support "Taiwan independence", and does not intend to conflict with China; it escalates to "five no and four unintentional", that is, the United States respects China's system, does not seek to change China's system, does not seek to oppose China by strengthening allies, does not support "Taiwan independence", does not support "two Chinas" and "one China, one Taiwan", and does not intend to conflict with China; the United States also has no intention to seek to "decouple" from China, does not intend to obstruct China's economic development, and does not intend to encircle China.
International Studies Institute Dean
Director of the American Research Center Wu Xinbo :
This meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state is the first offline meeting between the leaders of China and the United States since Biden took office, so both sides attach great importance to it. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was successfully held, and the Democratic Party achieved better results than expected, which created a relatively favorable atmosphere for the meeting between the two heads of state. Especially from the perspective of the United States, it is now seeking cooperation with China on a series of issues, so it has also shown a relatively proactive and positive attitude, which have led to the results of the meeting of the heads of state that exceeded expectations.In general, through this head of state meeting, the atmosphere of bilateral relations has been improved, pragmatic cooperation in some specific areas of issue has been promoted, and plans for the next step of the development of bilateral relations.
However, the US often reiterates that a Chinese policy remains unchanged, but has done a lot of things that distort and empty a Chinese policy. In August this year, U.S. House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan, which seriously impacted Sino-US relations and endangered the stability of the Taiwan Strait. China then implemented a series of countermeasures, including suspending bilateral climate change negotiations between China and the United States. It remains to be seen whether the US will change the previous issue of "saying one thing, doing another" and lack of action, and earnestly implement the spirit of the meeting between the two heads of state.
Denerate of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University
Director of the American Research Center Wu Xinbo:
Hotel Wu:
The US side has responded and expressed its views on a series of major issues that China is concerned about. Of course, these statements are only verbal, and the key is to rely on actions. Judging from our past experience in diplomacy with the United States, the United States often has "different words and deeds", especially on the Taiwan issue. Therefore, in future diplomacy with the United States, we must continue to promote the United States to fulfill its promises on some specific issues through interaction. At the same time, we must also put pressure on the United States and sound the alarm bell through a resolute diplomatic struggle. Only in this way can we continuously promote the United States to be consistent in its words and deeds on China's major concern issues and abide by its commitments.
YelenWhat signal does Biden's "right-hand man" release?
China and the United States will restart dialogue and coordination on economic and trade issues
Through the scene of the meeting between the Chinese and US dollar heads, many media have captured a detail: US Treasury Secretary Yellen became Biden's "right-hand man" for the first time. During the meeting, Biden's right was US Secretary of State Blinken , and Treasury Secretary Yellen sat on Biden's left, even surpassing President's Assistant for National Security Affairs Sullivan . Some analysts believe that such an arrangement may also be closely related to the current Biden administration's rush to solve domestic inflation and weak economic growth.
On November 16, US Treasury Secretary Yellen met with People's Bank of China Governor Yi Gang, and the two sides had extensive constructive exchanges on economic and financial issues. Over the past few years, the U.S. government has been suppressing China economically, trade and technology, and has included many Chinese companies on the "entity list." Decoupling and breaking of chains not only have a negative impact on China-US economic cooperation, but also affect the expectations of global economic development.
During this meeting, the leaders of China and the United States not only "oriented the rudder", but also made plans and deployments for the key tasks of the two countries in the next stage. Regarding the differences in the economic and trade fields between China and the United States, the two heads of state agreed to the financial teams of both sides to conduct dialogue and coordination on issues such as macroeconomic policies, economic and trade; the two sides will also conduct dialogue in areas such as public health, agriculture and food security.
US Secretary of State Blinken is expected to visit China early next year, which also shows that face-to-face interaction and dialogue between China and the United States are gradually recovering. At the civil level, the two sides encourage cultural exchanges to interact with people in various fields.
Denerate of the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University
Director of the American Research Center Wu Xinbo:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen attended the meeting between the Chinese and US Presidents and the US dollar and sent a signal that the Biden administration hopes to deal with economic and trade relations with China next. The U.S. inflation is still high now, and the economy is likely to fall into recession next year. Under such circumstances, the U.S. hopes to increase coordination and consultation with China's macroeconomic .
Wu Xinbo:
On the other hand, the business community in the United States is also putting pressure on the Biden administration, hoping that they will handle economic and trade relations with China well, including solving the issue of tariffs imposed by Trump .But we must also see that the Biden administration has a strong tendency to " protectionist " in economic and trade policies. He is concerned about the employment issues of domestic manufacturing workers and claims to promote "middle-class diplomacy". Therefore, on the issue of China and tariffs, major adjustments will not be made easily.
Wu Xinbo:
At the same time, the Biden administration's policy toward China is also dominated by security, economic and trade issues are "safe". Economic and trade issues must be subject to political and security considerations. So under this situation, Sino-US economic and trade relations may be improved, but this improvement will be carried out locally and with a small extent.
The US Congress re-shuffles
How will it affect Sino-US relations and the situation in the Taiwan Strait? In the midterm elections
, the "red wave" did not appear, the Democrats saved the Senate with a narrow advantage, and the situation of "dividing the government" of Congress has basically formed. Biden will find it difficult to achieve success in advancing the domestic agenda in the next two years. In this case, it is likely to focus on diplomacy. This has become a "convention" in the case of "separation" of powers.
For example, after the 2018 midterm elections, Trump lost control of the House of Representatives. As a result, the United States entered a period of complicated diplomatic affairs: two meetings between the U.S. and North Korea, systematic discussions on the " Indo-Pacific Strategy " in the name of the Ministry of National Defense, the first foreign ministers' meeting of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, etc. It can be foreseeable that in the next two years, the acceleration of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and " Indo-Pacific Economic Framework " in the diplomatic field, and strengthening the so-called "big power competition" may be the option of the Biden administration.
It is also worth noting that this year's midterm elections are the most issues involving China in the history of the United States, including supply chain decoupling, tariffs on China, and Chinese investment in the United States. Many candidates with radical "anti-China" stance have also entered Congress. It can be expected that the US foreign policy, especially China, may become tighter.
Denergy Institute of International Studies
Director of the American Research Center Wu Xinbo: After the midterm elections, the key to the impact on Sino-US relations lies in the House of Representatives. It is expected that the Republican Party of will use the House of Representatives to put pressure on Biden on relations with China to pass some "anti-China" bills. At the same time, some actions against China have been taken, especially on the Taiwan issue. The McCarthy Representatives, who are expected to become the speaker of the House of Representatives, once claimed to visit Taiwan. If he does this, it will definitely cause another crisis in Sino-US relations and the crisis in Taiwan Strait .
Wu Xinbo:
In addition, the House of Representatives controlled by the Republican Party may also hold a series of hearings related to China to create public opinion and put pressure on the Biden administration to adopt a tougher policy toward China and obstruct the improvement of Sino-US relations. Therefore, in the next two years, the House of Representatives will become more active on the China issue and will play a more negative role in Sino-US relations, which is worthy of our vigilance.
In addition, we must be clear-headed that a series of strategic documents of the Biden administration this year have characterized the direction of China-US relations in the next decade from a long-term perspective. Biden’s goal is to win the competition with China. The United States' layout in the chip field and the review of China's investment in are also aimed at maintaining the United States' position of technology and military hegemony. Therefore, overall, Biden will continue the policy line of competition and confrontation, and continue to build a strategic layout that is more conducive to the United States in terms of past scripts and existing plans.
Russian Khlsong withdraws troops Ukraine "relaxes its position"
How likely is Russia and Ukraine to achieve "peace talks"?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as well as the resulting security dilemma, logistics blockade and potential food crisis, etc., are issues that are difficult to circumvent at this G20 summit.Faced with the "Hongmen Banquet" held by the United States and Western countries at the G20 summit, Russian President Putin sent Foreign Minister Lavrov to attend the meeting. At the
summit, Russia and Ukraine staged a "confrontation across the air". Although Ukraine is not a member of the G20, at the invitation of the host Indonesian President Joko Hark , on November 15, Ukrainian President Zelensky attended the meeting in video and delivered a speech. He believes that it is time for Russia and Ukraine to stop hostile activities and said that it will not sign an agreement like the "Minsk Agreement 3". Ukraine has its own "peace plan", namely the "Top Ten Conditions" for peace talks.
In addition, Zelensky also "fired" Russia from the G20 in his speech. He said, "Thank you, dear G19, for helping Ukraine avoid being threatened by Russia's nuclear weapon ." During this period, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stayed at the venue throughout the whole time.
However, shortly after Zelensky issued the "Top Ten Conditions", Russia's missile landed in at least 7 cities including Kiev , Kharkov, Lviv , and infrastructure in many places was damaged, and the entire Ukrainian area sounded the air defense alarm. Kiev believes that this is a "response" to Zelensky's speech at the G20 summit.
""Habit " recently reported that the Biden administration is privately urging Ukrainian top officials to send a signal that they are willing to negotiate with Russia, and hopes that they will correct their public position of "not negotiating with Putin." Ukraine's statement has also loosened. Although Zelensky's current conditions are unacceptable to Moscow , the change in wording seems to mean that he intends to "relax his posture."
And starting from November, there are also various signs that the United States is relaxing sanctions on Russia and has begun to require large banks to provide services to Russian companies by default. The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade revealed that companies such as Lancome , Saint Laurent , Armani are ready to resume supply to Russia; Bloomberg also released news that the US Treasury and the State Department privately requested financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase , Citibank to continue to maintain strategic business with some Russian companies.
Some voices believe that Russia's voluntary withdrawal from Khlsong this time was intended to reach a certain degree of "political exchange" with the United States and the West, that is, to exchange the right bank of the Dnieper River for Europe and the United States to reduce assistance to Ukraine.
This week, Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency Director Nareshkin and US CIA Director Burns held secret talks on Turkey . This is also the first face-to-face talks between high-level Russian and American officials since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, focusing on discussing nuclear risks and the issue of US citizens detained in Russia.
At the same time, Russia and the United States will hold talks in Cairo, Egypt from the end of this month to the beginning of next month to discuss the resumption of the verification mechanism under the framework of the " New Strategic Weapon Reduction Treaty ". As the only remaining arms control treaty between Russia and the United States, coupled with the overcast " nuclear war ", the reopening of the consultation mechanism once again has also played a role in stabilizing the situation. US media revealed that the Biden administration has put pressure on Ukraine in private to be open to negotiations with Russia. In response, Ukraine responded that negotiations with Russia are expected to start in the second half of next year. By then, both Russia and the United States will enter the presidential election cycle.
Perhaps, Ukraine cannot decide whether to fight or be peaceful. Only when the United States and Russia eventually consume each other to a strategic critical point can Ukraine peace be achieved.
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