There are a lot of major events recently, such as the Health Commission announced 20 scientific epidemic prevention measures, and many cities are following up one after another. 's third-quarter economic data was released, we encountered some pressure, and coupled with a series of events such as the G20 summit, the Sino-US meeting, etc. we entered the last 45 days of 2022.
The economy recovered in the third quarter, how to move in the fourth quarter?
So how will China's economy go in the next 45 days? Can China's economy continue its recovery trend in the third quarter in the fourth quarter? Today we will talk about the final battle of China's economy. It is not easy to write, please like, forward and collect.
45 days later, the battle to come to an end!
To judge the economic trend in the fourth quarter, needs to see what achievements we achieved in the third quarter and what other problems exist.
At the beginning of this year, senior management judged that the three major problems of China's economy were the contraction of demand, the impact of supply and the weakening of domestic demand. One of the ways to deal with these three major problems is to stimulate through fiscal means, and is also a sustainable stimulus.
Faced with three major problems, a sustainable fiscal policy is the "ballast stone"
For example, our rate cut reserve requirement ratio cuts should be gradually reduced, and investment in infrastructure projects should be launched, but we cannot do it all the way to , and we must also leave some trump card for the subsequent projects. Only in this way can the national finance become the decisive needle.
After the foundation laying of the first quarter, after the economic winter in the second quarter, we ushered in the third quarter of economic recovery; according to data, the total output value of GDP in the third quarter of in the domestic GDP was 30.76 trillion, with a growth rate of 3.9%, and the entire domestic economy showed the following characteristics.
first, domestic consumption has increased, but it began to weaken in October.
The domestic consumption data in the third quarter were actually very good, not only were they above the 0 axis, showing positive growth. By month, it began to rebound in June, with html's growth rate reaching 5.4% in August, 2.5% in September, and 0.5% in October.
6-September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were positive, but it turned significantly weaker in October
. The reason why our consumption data strengthened first and then weakened was the epidemic. The spread of the epidemic led to the closure of , causing clustered consumer products to have difficulty in operating, such as the cold box office of cinemas, the closing of bars, and the catering industry.
offline supermarkets are no one, online shopping is popular
This is the reason why domestic consumption has grown to weaken. Judging from the data, our online consumption has not decreased, but has increased. This is because many people are quarantined at home, and their demand for materials has shifted from offline to online.
Second, real estate is not prosperous, rescues the market and policies frequently appear.
In addition to retail products, the real estate data in the third quarter was not good. In the past three months, the growth rate of the construction and decoration materials industry has remained between -7.8% and -9.1% . The growth rate of real estate development investment in January-October fell by 8.8% year-on-year. The national housing prosperity index in October was 94.70, which has dropped to the lowest since 2016.
Real estate prosperity index continued to decline
This means that the real estate industry is still in a downward stage.
As an important pillar of the national economy, real estate has collapsed. It means that millions of people and tens of millions of people will experience crises, and even the crisis will spill out of the real estate industry , affecting the confidence and stability of the whole society in the economy. Therefore, in order to save the real estate industry, we have introduced a series of policies.
, especially the recently issued "16 Real Estate Regulations" , which allows financial institutions to fully transfusion blood to the real estate industry and focus on "security and delivery" projects. This is actually to support the real estate market. It can be said that if real estate is stabilized, half of China's economy will stabilize.
16 real estate Regulations are issued, and senior management will continue to save the market.
Third, the financial market is facing violent fluctuations
The factor that has caused huge economic pressure in China is not only the epidemic, but also the external factors, that is, the Federal Reserve enters the rate hike cycle of , which has brought a series of impacts.
For example, the interest rate of in the United States has risen by 4%, which has led to an interest rate gap between China and the United States. The dollar index is also continuing to strengthen, and the third quarter of the domestic market was the strongest period of the US dollar. means that the depreciation of the RMB is also the largest. Since the beginning of this year, our RMB has depreciated from 6.30 to a lowest price of 7.37. This is mainly due to the U.S. interest rate hike harvest.
RMB depreciates significantly, and there is a certain appreciation.
. The interest rate hike has also caused some foreign capital to flee, A-share market decline, and a series of unfavorable factors, which aroused the vigilance and intervention of central bank .
By the end of November, with the slowdown in the rate hike of the Federal Reserve in and our active intervention, the RMB 3 has appreciated to around 7.04, and it seems to be "reversely breaking 7" , but we also need to know that the rate hike of the Federal Reserve has not ended, and we cannot lose our vigilance on the exchange rate hike of the exchange rate .
Federal interest rate hike has not ended
Fourth, employment problems arise, and the unemployment rate remains high.
Is it difficult to find a job this year? Do you all advise you not to quit? Work overtime more in ? This is a social phenomenon, and it also directly reflects the unemployment rate.
The third quarter is a quarter of China's economic recovery, but the employment environment is still relatively severe. Our youth unemployment rate has risen sharply since July. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the youth unemployment rate in 7 reached a record 19.9%, an increase of 23% over the same period last year. This data immediately allowed us to take a series of measures to ensure employment.
In order to solve the employment problem, localities held job fairs
, such as providing employment training for young people, carrying out a series of job recruitment plans, etc. In the following months, the youth unemployment rate has declined, but it remains at a high level. The youth surveyed unemployment rate in November was 17.9%, which is a little better than in July, but the situation is still relatively serious.
We often say that employment is the foundation of people's livelihood. Only with work can we have income, we dare to consume, and have money to buy a house. Therefore, how to ensure employment and people's livelihood should be the top priority of economic work.
How will the economy go in the fourth quarter?
If the third quarter is a node that tends to recover overall, the problems faced by in the fourth quarter are both dangerous and opportunity.
An important crisis is that our fiscal revenue has experienced a serious decline. The general public budget revenue from January to September was 15.3 trillion, down 6.6%, of which the value-added tax revenue was 3.33 trillion, down 33.4%. This shows that the epidemic prevention and control is too one-size-fits-all, affecting the growth of tax revenue.
also has the majority of previous fiscal revenue, and the income from land transfer fees has also dropped by 28.3% this year. This is a decline of over one trillion yuan, affecting the security of local finances.
Due to the recession of real estate, this year's land auctions encountered cold
. As the growth rate of fiscal revenue slowed down, our fiscal expenditure increased instead of falling. The money for nucleic acid testing was actually paid by local governments. The existing debt pressure before was also relatively high, which forces us to find ways to solve the problem and deal with this series of crises.
According to the views of the National Development and Reform Commission, The 20 items issued by the State Council will handle epidemic prevention and control measures more accurately, avoid the past one-size-fits-all situation, which will help restore the economy, smooth logistics, and promote the recovery of market demand.
The State Council issued 20 epidemic optimization measures
And for example, in July, We arranged 739.9 billion yuan of financial tool to invest in infrastructure construction, thereby leveraging trillions of leverage funds to drive the economic development of and projects will also be implemented in the fourth quarter economy.
In particular, we used this money to build a large number of projects that we wanted to build before but had no money to build, such as , such as large-scale wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage, and some South-to-North Water Diversion projects, , and many cities were flooded due to heavy rainstorms. Now we are building underground pipeline projects.
Photovoltaic power stations in mountainous areas of Zhejiang
Looking abroad, according to the US CPI data in October, the pace of interest rate hikes in the United States may slow down. In December, it was said that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points , and is likely to cut interest rates a little now, and only 50 basis points , which also triggered a surge in the US stock market and the global capital market, which is also a favorable factor in the fourth quarter.
summary
From the economic slowdown in the second quarter to the effective recovery in the third quarter, we are about to usher in the final battle of the fourth quarter. Although China's current economic situation is much better than in the second quarter, if the negative impact of the epidemic and interest rate hikes is not solved, then the report card we handed over will be discounted.
Fortunately, the senior management has been making frequent moves recently. Whether it is the 16 real estate market rescue policies or 20 epidemic prevention and optimization policies, they have loosened the constraints for China's economic development. Coupled with the external negative factors - the slowdown in the Fed's interest rate hike, our overall situation is better than in the third quarter.
China's basic economic foundation can remain stable
Of course, although the policy has been introduced, there is still a certain amount of time before it is implemented. At present, there are also multiple sporadic cases in China , and the number of new cases daily has reached 20,000. Will this have another impact on economic development? We don't know yet.
Fortunately, our path is already very clear. Although there are some thorns ahead, relying on the internal circulation of the 1.4 billion domestic population and market, China's basic economic foundation can remain stable.
Write this, it's getting late. The late autumn night is superimposed with autumn rain. It's like the current Chinese economy, with all kinds of problems. However, From the Xia, Shang and Zhou dynasties to the present, the Chinese nation has a history of thousands of years. As long as we are not in chaos, no external difficulties can defeat us.
2023, we will definitely have a better life!
The last 45 days may not change the economic trend throughout the year, but can it lay a good foundation for 2023? Let China become better in 23 years and travel more freely. The income of is higher than now, the unemployment rate can decline, and the job search for will become better. Can the impact of the epidemic be smoothly overcome?
At this time, I am adjacent to West Lake , and I also hope to see good news that is prosperous like "the sunrise and the flowers in the river are better than the fire"! May China come on! May our lives be better and better!
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