Five major A followed the strong rebound of US stocks, and experienced a surge and decline in the intraday session, and then rose and fell again. How will A-shares perform next week?
Let’s take a look at the Shanghai Composite Index first, and the rebound on Friday broke through the 3100 integer mark twice during the session. Although it has fallen, the strong breakthrough of the previous high and the integer mark with special significance as the pressure level shows that the bulls' offensive this time is very fierce. The ChiNext is slightly "weak", after all, this wave of pullback in the Shanghai Stock Exchange is even smaller.
The technical aspects need to be noted: and the three major indexes have reached the rebound high point in mid-October, and there is a pressure level of the 60-day line above.
2. The gap, the big increase on Friday, left a large gap. Whether this gap will be filled or not, when will it be filled?
Personally believe that the remaining two trading days in November can still be viewed optimistically. Reasons refer to the views of two securities firms:
CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the direction of epidemic prevention policy adjustment, the turning point of external liquidity expectations, and the improvement of geopolitical disturbances have been clarified. improves fundamentals, valuation and risk preferences, respectively. The comprehensive repair of A-shares has been established, and the market is easy to rise but difficult to fall. It is still in the first half driven by policy. The focus of trading is expected to switch from policy expectations to policy effect games. It is recommended to improve balanced allocation of positions. It is recommended to focus on the three main lines of precise prevention and control, real estate industry chain, and global liquidity turning point, which benefit more clearly.
On Friday, or if the market continues to rebound in the future, the overall logic of the above-mentioned points: The economic recovery brought about by fine internal prevention and control, the expected turning point of external liquidity easing, and the positive policy drive of related sectors.
The most important thing in the short term is liquidity. As long as the volume can last for trillions of yuan, the northbound market will continue to buy, and a small bull market cannot be run away.
Northbound funds made a net purchase of 14.666 billion yuan on Friday. Kweichow Moutai, Zijin Mining and CATL received net purchases of 1.327 billion yuan, 1.28 billion yuan and 980 million yuan respectively. Goertek ranked first in net sales, with an amount of 685 million yuan. Mindray Medical, China Duty Free and Yangtze Power were also selling over 100 million yuan.
The point is that Moutai finally saw a large purchase, which corresponds to the external loose expectations.
can return to the technical aspect in operation. The short-term strategy is to reduce positions appropriately near the 60-day line of the index, and wait for the breakout to fall back before getting on the car. As for the gap, don’t worry about it in the short term.
Simply put the news for next weekend:
. US stocks
The three major U.S. stocks closed up collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.1%, with a cumulative increase of 4.15% this week; the Nasdaq rose 1.87%, with a cumulative increase of 8.1% this week, with a cumulative increase of 8.1%, with a largest single-week increase since March; the S&P 500 rose 0.93%, with a cumulative increase of 5.9% this week.
The US stock market rose on Friday and it was a great stimulus for Big A. Most of the other times actually have less reference significance for Big A trend the next day. However, this time the US stock market rose sharply because the pace of US dollar interest rate hikes may usher in a loose turning point. Therefore, as long as this news does not turn, US stocks are basically unlikely to fall sharply. US stocks do not fall sharply. The sword of the big A hanging above foreign capital continues to flow in.
So, as long as the US stock market does not fall sharply, Big A can continue to play music and dance.
2. Real Estate
Real estate ushered in another good news on the weekend:
This positive news explains to a certain extent why when the price surged on Friday, funds chose real estate and related sectors.
So the question is, will the positive news be fulfilled tomorrow, the rebound end, or will the funds bet correctly? Will the positive news continue to stimulate the sector's rise?
Let’s first look at the COVID-19 treatment, vaccine, and the Chinese medicine treatment direction represented by all living beings, led by CanSino, which suddenly plunged on Friday afternoon.
Afterwards, of course it will be understood as a favorable implementation and the funds will be cashed out and left.
However, if there is no flash crash, the market will be interpreted as a positive stimulus, and the future market will continue to be expected. There is no problem with any statement of
. Whether it is right or not, the market has the final say.
How to deal with retail investors? Is it understood as washing the dish or receding the tide?
Personally believe that we should not worry about whether we are right or wrong, but understand our strengths and weaknesses.
The disadvantage of
is the lag and understanding of message reception, so there is no way to judge whether the so-called "good" and "negative" are true or false.
The advantage is that we as retail investors have a small size, and advancing and retreating are advantages!
Even if there is no way to understand the sectors and stocks that have already had such a high capital intervention, even if there is no way to understand them at the first time, when facing sectors and stocks that have risen a lot, the news will consider the risks as soon as possible. For example, before the news came out, CanSino's stock price remained above the moving average throughout the day, and after the news came out, it fell directly below the intraday moving average. At this time, you should consider reducing your position first.
If some stocks in low-level sectors are stocks, the greater probability of good news coming out will be really good. For example, this wave of real estate is currently uncertain, but if funds choose it in this wave of real estate, it is just a one-day tour, and the structure of this wave of institutions is really a bit bad.
