Following the last two oil price adjustments on October 24 and November 7, this round of oil price adjustments continued to reversal . However, the reversal of this oil price adjustment is: the amount of adjustment in the early stage of statistics has disappeared, and it has temporarily fallen by 10 yuan/ton, which is completely opposite to the previous two oil price increases. It is true that this time, and after two consecutive increases, the oil price adjustment may be slowed down.
After the 22nd oil price adjustment began this Tuesday, the statistics showed that the corresponding adjustment amount rose to 170 yuan/ton (0.16-0.14 yuan/liter). In the following three statistical windows, the adjustment amount continued to fall due to the continuous shrinking of the crude oil change rate. When the statistics on Friday were released, the adjustment amount was already reduced by 10 yuan/ton. At this point, the expectation of an increase in oil prices has become a stranded oil price adjustment. Images like
are relatively common in June-September. During this period, oil price adjustments began to be lowered 6 times, with only two increases. However, the two oil price increases since October have brought the increase of oil prices this year to 1,645 and 1,600 yuan/ton (1.31-1.38 yuan/liter). The average selling price of No. 95 gasoline in the country has also exceeded 9 again, reaching 9.09 yuan/liter. If the oil price adjustment in November 21 is started to be lowered, the average price of No. 95 gasoline is still likely to return to the 8 yuan era.
Before Friday, the cumulative decline of international crude oil prices this week exceeded 6%, but the weekly decline was directly halved after Friday, leaving only about 2.5%. This was mainly because the US inflation data was inferior to expectations, resulting in a sharp rise in the possibility of the Federal Reserve slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes in . The US dollar was sold on a large scale, with a weekly decline of as high as 4%, the largest single-week decline since March 27, 2020. This brought the rebound momentum to the price of commodities , including crude oil.
However, some analysts believe that the crude oil market this week may have exaggerated the CPI data, and the US dollar may recover some lost ground, and crude oil price will also give up some rises. A slight decline in inflation does not mean that inflation pressure is declining, nor does it mean that the Federal Reserve is turning its focus. Judging from the information disclosed by the Federal Reserve before, although it may relax its interest rate hikes, it is still taking positive actions, which should maintain the strength of the US dollar.
In addition, data shows that Russia's oil production in October has remained at 1.47 million tons/day, equivalent to 10.78 million barrels/day. Although it is lower than the 10.8 million barrels/day in September announced by the Russian Bureau of Statistics last week, it is obvious that there is no significant decline, which eases the market's concerns about a decline in crude oil supply.
is just one thing. According to the OPEC+ agreement, Russia's production quota will start to drop to 10.5 million barrels per day from November, and these data do not include natural gas condensate .
But according to the International News Agency, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that Russia's oil production in October was 9.9 million barrels per day, far lower than the country's quota in the OPEC+ agreement, which is consistent with his previous forecast of production in September, but lower than Russia's quota of 11 million barrels per day stipulated by the OPEC+ global agreement. At the same time, it is also facing the suppression of the EU embargo.
11-13 National retail prices of gasoline and diesel, No. 92, 95 and 98,
