Tonight, the US inflation CPI exceeded expectations. The big fell back to 7.7%, and
This incident is the biggest super positive in the world.
I think Feder will stop aggressive interest rate hikes from today, and
international market currency liquidity will no longer continue to shrink significantly.
Starting today, will no longer be pessimistic!
As we all know, the domestic has cut interest rates many times and reserve requirement ratios,
Domestic currency liquidity has not improved,
International market The Federal Reserve has been crazy about inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes is another aspect,
RMB exchange rate has been breaking through 7.3 from 6.3.
basically released currency liquidity in China, and
has been drained by the US dollar interest rate hike.
But today, tonight, Now!
US CPI fell sharply, exceeding market expectations and falling sharply!
The Federal Reserve no longer has that much need to continue to raise interest rates aggressively.
Of course, whether to raise interest rates or not, you have to look at the CPI data for at least 2-4 months. There will be still a hike rate on
, but aggressively raise interest rates on , and ends today!
So, from today, any expectations of will no longer be pessimistic!
Today is a change in market expectations. The most affected market is the market with strong liquidity.
such as US stock opened higher and closed higher , Nasdaq 5% + rose ,
Big A will also open higher and close higher tomorrow, 2937 will surely become the bottom within 2 years (a day breaking in the middle).
Shanghai market 10-year monthly line
Then return to real estate,
Similarly, market expects the darkest time on to pass,
In the future, as the Federal Reserve slows down interest rate hikes, it will gradually reduce the currency contraction policy,
Domestic interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts release liquidity The effect will gradually appear,
, but the recovery of the real estate market will seriously lag behind the stock market.
I estimate that it will take about half a year until the Federal Reserve really stops hiking interest rates and the interest rate cut begins.
or the RMB exchange rate rises to around 6.8, and domestic currency liquidity will begin to improve significantly.
should take at least more than half a year.
For so many years, I feel that there is an indicator that can refer to the time turning point of the real estate market (not an increase)
Vanke A (00002) monthly K, which is generally ahead of the real estate market 2-4 months and begins to show a turning point.
Currently, Vanke A-monthly line is in the process of bottoming out . Today, the data of the US CPI,
is likely to allow Vanke A-monthly K to successfully bottom out within half a year to 10 months. You can refer to it then.
I am Bobo, a boy who loves Changzhou loves Xitaihu !
