How should the Chinese economy move forward in the face of multiple challenges?
China's economy is not very good overall this year. The growth rate of GDP in the first half of 2022 was only 2.5%. Of course, there are many reasons: The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike harvest, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European energy crisis, global inflation, and the outbreak of the epidemic in China, etc.
3 starts. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to harvest the world
This has completely broken our original economic growth target of 5.5%. Fortunately, China has an excellent system of concentrating its efforts on major tasks.
After a series of measures to save economic development, we basically stabilized economic development in the second half of the year and prevented the domestic economy from falling sharply. Especially from August to September, China's economy has recovered in all aspects.
8 In Shanghai, China's economy recovered well
So how will the Chinese economy go in the future? How will real estate, pork, inflation and the international situation evolve? Today we will make a rough analysis of the domestic and international situation, so that everyone can have a relatively clear understanding of some key issues.
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China's social financing comes back to life
There is a very important data in the Chinese economy, called social financing data. The increase in its financing scale means the amount of funds obtained by the real economy from the financial system. That is to say, the higher the amount of social financing, the better the prospects of the real economy will develop.
However, in July this year, the scale of social financing plummeted, a year-on-year decrease of more than 30% and a month-on-month decrease of 85%. Many people feel that the Chinese economy has entered a cold winter. The market's pessimistic expectations for the economy began to increase, and at that time, it was difficult to find jobs and business recession, and making money became a hot topic of discussion at the time.
Graduation is easy, but it is difficult to find a job
However, in the recent September, China's social financing data rebounded: in September's RMB loans increased by 2.47 trillion yuan, and increased by 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year ; the stock of social financing scale was 340.65 trillion yuan, and increased by 10.6% year-on-year.
9 social financing data stabilized in September
The resurrection of social financing data directly shows that China's economy has basically bottomed out and rebounded. This is a sign of the strengthening of the real economy and a preview of China's economic recovery.
So from the perspective of social financing, China's economy has begun to get out of the trough, and we must be full of confidence in the future development of the economy.
Real estate has been cold, and many places have begun to " rescue the market "
The cold of China's real estate has started in the second half of 2021. At that time, in order to prevent the house prices from rising too quickly, we gradually improved the leverage ratio of Chinese local governments and urban investments, and the problem of excessive debt ratio . You should know that the total amount of M2 currency in 2021 has been very high. In order not to occur in systemic risks, we began to consciously suppress the real estate bubble .
The total amount of M2 data in China is already very high. We must prevent the "bubble" from bursting. Due to various reasons, coupled with the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, real estate suddenly encountered cold weather and suddenly entered a cold winter. So we began to relax the constraints on real estate policies and let real estate move towards a healthy development path.
htmlOn July 28, the high-level meeting clearly stated that it would ensure the delivery of buildings in and stabilize people's livelihood; on August 31, the high-level meeting expressed its support for ", one city, one policy, " and use credit to ensure the delivery of buildings.
allows one city to be one policy, and do a good job in "guaranteeing and transferring buildings"
On September 39, Central Bank and the State Council began to take advantage of their big moves. respectively launched tax refunds for sale of houses, lowering the provident fund loan interest rate 0.15%. Local governments independently decide to cancel the lower limit on the first-home loan interest rate.
We know that in the first half of 2021, the average interest rate for first-home houses in Zhengzhou was 5.96%, and there were also many above 6%. What is the current interest rate? Many cities have fallen below 4%, and the mortgage interest rate of is only 3.9% in the northern big city of Tianjin, and the interest rate of the provincial capital Shijiazhuang is only 3.8%!
The interest rate for the first home in Shijiazhuang, the provincial capital, fell to 3.8%
What is all for? That is to use real money to promote the people to buy houses. At this time, may be the bottom of buying. When the economy gets better, it may not be that cheap.
You should know that The real estate industry determines the lifeblood of the national economy. New energy vehicles are in full swing, but the total is about 3 trillion yuan, and even if real estate is cold, it will have a scale of 18 trillion yuan.
plus the real estate market is closely related to the employment, income and livelihood of the people across the country, so real estate must be saved. The theory of real estate collapse is either stupid or bad.
China's real estate industry is closely related to the wealth of the people
Historically, real estate has also continued to go through cycles. html Real estate 110 years ago was also cold, but it was in full swing 5 years ago.
In my opinion, with the continuous attention of senior management and the successive introduction of policies, China's real estate will most likely see a soft landing, while major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou will still become popular cities.
Financial market is relatively stable, but the test is still
In this round of economic challenges, China's financial industry has encountered a major impact. From the A-share market fell below 3,000 points at the beginning of the year to the depreciation of RMB exchange rate , although we have a very thick financial firewall, the hegemony of the US dollar is really too powerful.
RMB is 6.3 yuan: 1 USD before the USD interest rate hike cycle . It has now fallen to 7.22 yuan: 1 US dollar. The depreciation is large.
RMB exchange rate continues to depreciate, and is currently around 7.2
But we also need to see that the Chinese RMB is actually very strong. We have fallen a lot, but other countries have fallen more. The depreciation rate of the yen has reached the highest record in 32 years. The old-fashioned power of the UK's pound fell, and the Elizabeth no longer recognizes it. In other words, as long as the RMB is not compared with the US dollar, it will be compared with the Japanese yen, pound, and euro, we will appreciate instead.
RMB is a few strong currencies
Previous articles I also mentioned that the basic market of China's economy is stable, and the basic market is stable, and the intervention of the central mother means that the RMB exchange rate will eventually stabilize. The delusion of overseas forces shorting through the financial market will not be realized!
RMB will inevitably move towards internationalization, and the inequality brought about by the hegemony of US dollar will also be our goal of future challenges!
has significant confidence! Where is China's economy going?
Some people online think so about the future development direction of China's economy. These people believe that China has proposed a strategy for internal circulation development before, which is actually to "closed" and to close the country.
However, the senior management has recently made it clear that the development of is the top priority, and we must adhere to high-level openness of . Of course we have to carry out the domestic big cycle, and it is still the main body. But this does not mean that we are closed down. has used more than 100 years of history to verify a truth: if you fall behind, you will be beaten.
For a long time in the future, we will take development as the top priority and adhere to high-level opening up
So you will find that China must not only continue to develop its economy, but also implement the focus of economic development on the real economy. We must continue to promote new industrialization. This is one of the basic platforms for China to survive and an important confidence in the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation!
The ancient Chinese Yin-Yang Fish tells us that the cathode is yang, and a world-class crisis is coming, which not only brings challenges, but also brings us opportunities. For example, although the gap between China and the United States was narrowing before, due to US sanctions and responses, our speed of catching up has not been widened.
The gap between China and the United States is rapidly narrowing
However, in this world economic crisis, the GDP growth rate of the United States next year is estimated to be only 1%, while China remains at around 4%-5%, and the gap narrows suddenly.
Of course, if you say too much bad news, let’s talk about good news.
First of all, The Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle in March is basically coming to an end. There may be several interest rate hikes in the future , , but the strength and threat are not as great as before. It is a high probability event that the world economic recession bottomed out in 23 years and began to rebound.
The gap between China and the United States continues to narrow in the crisis
At the same time, the stability of China's basic market, means that the giant Chinese economy is moving forward bravely in the turbulent waves, and our development will encounter some short-term problems, but in the long run, these storms cannot do anything to us.
There is another advantage that other countries do not have, that is, the strategic depth is huge. First of all, our country has a large land area and a rich total resource. Although both the United States and Russia have this, the population of both countries is not as large as China; the only India, which can match the population of China, has old infrastructure and an extremely high illiteracy rate for the people.
Then the Chinese economy will inevitably create new glory! Such a strong basic market as
means that even if our economy encounters an impact, can always recover. There are also some special industries that can stand behind the siege and contribute to China's economic growth.
In my opinion, China's economy has reached a turning point again, and as long as we continue to move forward along the development idea and the direction of reform, I believe that China's economy will inevitably create glory again!
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