General trend judging
From the above data, you can intuitively feel the excitement of the market on Friday, the sentiment is high and the money-making effect has been significantly improved. On Friday, the transaction volume of in the two markets reached 860.8 billion, an increase of 132.5 billion from the previous trading day, which is an effective increase of volume, and also means that long funds are willing to enter the market to work and take the initiative. On Friday, the market's information innovation concept was waning, and medical devices were relaying. Even CSI Medical's increased by more than 9%.
actually mentioned the content of special re-loans for equipment update and transformation of 200 billion yuan. Recently, whether it is medical care, information technology, education, etc., it actually involves equipment update and transformation. The essence behind it is that is oversold +20cm has great elasticity. In the early stage, these directions fell and complained, and funds fled one after another, and now they are more violent in rebounding. In the afternoon, the beautiful country temporarily exempted the tax on photovoltaic equipment produced by Chinese companies in Southeast Asia, which stimulated a wave of photovoltaic rebound, which is also a means for beautiful country to control inflation. There are 14 stocks with daily limit ups on Friday, which is 20cm, which is enough to show that the 20CM logic sorted out has been recognized by the market. If there is a rebound in a weak market, funds will give priority to 20cm elastic varieties. Therefore, when selecting stocks in the future, you can pay attention to the bonus points such as 20cm and second-new ones. Over the weekend, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges planned to revise the guidelines for repurchasing shares and the guidelines for share change management. The upper class encouraged companies to repurchase shares, which is also a positive signal that the market is at a relatively low level.
[Segment Analysis]
Track
Previously, the article on September 15 mentioned that the adjustment range of track stocks was around 30-40%. Recently, has Ningwang stopped falling and stabilized around this area, thus starting a wave of rebound. The rebound of the track cannot avoid sectors such as wind and solar storage and new energy vehicles. I have said before that if the track and new energy vehicles cannot rise, the market will be difficult. After all, these are the directions that cannot be avoided in the process of transforming into an innovative-driven economy, and are the directions that we are ahead of the world and have the right to speak.
Photoscopy before the Friday photovoltaics Jinko Energy 's N-type TOPCon battery conversion efficiency set a new record. At the opening, there were funds attacking photovoltaics, but the medical device sector was too strong and the funds were diverted. In the afternoon, it was reported that the country stopped imposing "double anti-double" tariffs on imported solar modules. The anti-subsidy tax process for these imported batteries and modules has been implemented for two years. This once again caused abnormal movements in the photovoltaic sector, and even big guys like Longi Green Energy and Hesheng Silicon Industry once attacked the daily limit.
These varieties are familiar to all within the sector. Generally, familiar varieties are the first choice for institutions. After all, funds will choose the direction with the least resistance and the point with the highest market attention to break through. Moreover, the news is equivalent to the formal confirmation of this tariff exemption, which is conducive to the recovery of Southeast Asian photovoltaic exports to beautiful countries and enhance the expectations of demand in the industrial chain. Especially the expectation of components going overseas, such as Jingao Technology, , , etc., has the highest growth rate. There are also the varieties of large-size battery cells varieties (Aixu Co., Ltd.), quartz crucible ( quartz shares) that have been repeatedly emphasized before, which are also shining. In the fourth quarter of the photovoltaic industry, the demand for traditional peak season will rebound, and next year, the supply and demand of various links of the industrial chain will be seen. At present, quartz, EVA, and some new battery cells will be relatively scarce links, and can be tracked in the future.
Although it is not a reversal at present, it is just a rebound, I also hope that everyone can cherish this rebound node to echo blood and eat some meat. You can also pay attention to some track varieties for range arbitrage, such as King Kong Photovoltaics, Aixu Co., Ltd., Junda Co., Ltd., etc. The track range arbitrage varieties that are in the future trend are also a good choice. Set the stop loss line and try to lurk in at the lower edge of the range, and call out when the pulse or upper edge is used.
Performance
Last week's article clearly emphasized paying attention to the performance line, and the logic of the performance line has also been recognized by the market. On Friday, the photovoltaic sector was not only stimulated by news, but also had performance cooperation.As Longi Green Energy announced, from January to September, the company expects to achieve operating income between 86.4 billion yuan and 87.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%-56%; it expects to achieve net profit between 10.6 billion yuan and 11.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40%-48%, and a single quarter net profit hit a record high. With the end of the performance forecast, the intensive disclosure of the official report of the third quarter report will be held at the end of the month.
combined with the weekend performance forecast news, the new energy industry chain companies performed well. Take new energy vehicles as an example. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still continuing to rise, new energy sales have maintained and rapidly grown, and the export side is also performing well. The third quarter report forecast also shows that upstream lithium ore and materials, batteries, auto parts and other fields have performed well, so you can continue to pay attention to it in the future. There are also some sub-sectors that benefit from the decline in upstream raw material prices and improve gross profit margins. At the same time, there are relatively strong demand, such as wind power, energy storage, etc. The following figure is a sub-sector with improved performance and high prosperity for your reference. For the strategy of
, the subsequent observation of the convergence of the index moving average is a repetitive process, and it is not advisable to make the expectation too full. To grab a rebound, we need to revolve around some main lines of hard logic, and operate quickly in and out quickly. The major conference has opened, and the relevant content of the conference will be followed up.
[The above views are for investors' learning reference only and do not constitute investment advice. If you operate on this basis, you can bear the risks at your own risk]
