The entire September, in the A-share market was not peaceful, especially one or two weeks before the National Day holiday, market showed a one-sided downward trend. According to recent analysis, this round of resumption of A shares is mainly restricted by the peripheral market, especially the chain reaction caused by the Fed's interest rate hike . In the articles in the past two days, Jingyang and everyone have comprehensively reviewed the trend of the foreign market during the long holiday, and the general trend is to rise first and then fall. However, compared with the closing price on October 7th and the closing price on September 30th, it can be found that in fact, except for , Nasdaq , other major stock indexes basically rose within the week when , A-shares closed down . This will be helpful to the A-share market after the holiday!
However, Jingyang still wants to remind everyone that the A-share market is not completely linked to the trend of US stock . Major macro news at home and abroad during the long holiday will also have a huge impact on the market! So, Jingyang will talk to the market about what important news will have to affect the post-holiday market since the close of September 30th to today?
1, Central Bank decided to lower the interest rate for the first personal housing provident fund loan!
After the closing of trading on September 30, the central bank decided to lower the interest rate of the first personal housing provident fund loan by 0.15 percentage points from October 1, 2022, and adjust the interest rates below 5 years (including 5 years) and above 5 years to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively. The interest rate policy for the second set of personal housing provident fund loans remains unchanged, that is, the interest rates for less than 5 years and more than 5 years shall not be lower than 3.025% and 3.575% respectively.
This is another important measure for senior management to stabilize the real estate market in recent years. In fact, one or two days before the long holiday, the real estate market received three policy "gift packages", and lowering the provident fund loan interest rate is only one part of it. In addition, the relaxation of the lower interest rate limit for first-home mortgages and the income tax preferential treatment for individual housing purchasers will ultimately focus on stabilizing the property market. At the local level, the interest rate of first-home mortgages in many cities is also expected to drop to the 3-digit headline, and many places also intensively release housing purchase subsidies !
However, unfortunately, although the policy favorability has been extremely dense recently, the sales data of real estate have not improved significantly. During the National Day holiday, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings nationwide was 669,300 square meters, a decrease of 37.7% from the average daily transaction area during last year's National Day holiday. The activity of second-hand houses is slightly better than that of new houses.
For the A-share market, the status of the real estate sector is gradually declining and is no longer the pillar sector of the past. However, despite this, the weight of the real estate industry chain is still quite large. If intensive policy benefits can eventually bring the real estate market back to normal track. This is not only a good thing for real estate stocks, but also a very important stabilizer for the A-share market!
2, OPEC+ announced that it will reduce production of 2 million barrels of oil from November!
During the National Day holiday, OPEC+ agreed to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day from November, and extend the production restriction agreement by one year to the end of 2023. This is the largest oil production cut since the beginning of the epidemic, which is equivalent to about 2% of global oil demand. At the same time, OPEC+ announced that it would adjust the frequency of meetings of the ministerial oversight committee from once a month to once a month. Nigeria Oil Minister said that OPEC + hopes that the oil price will be around $90 per barrel.
This is a major news in the energy market throughout the holiday, no less than the explosion of the Nord Stream-1 pipeline. Because OPEC+ announced too much production cuts this time, it will undoubtedly cause market concerns about the supply and demand relationship between crude oil, and cause international oil prices to rebound strongly during the long holiday. From the low point before the holiday on September 26, the cumulative increase in WTI crude oil has exceeded 20% on October 7!
For the A-share market, the surge in international oil prices is a short-term positive. Because the strong oil prices have covered many sectors such as oil and gas mining, coal, natural gas , port shipping, etc. These sectors basically overlap with the major theme of the European energy crisis. If these sectors rise due to strong oil prices, in addition to supporting the market, it will also add a new investment line to the entire market, which is also beneficial to increasing market trading activity.
However, the rise in oil prices is a long-term negative, which will increase the pressure on imported inflation. Fortunately, we are all short-term investors and pay more attention to the short-term operation direction of the market.
3. The United States added 263,000 new non-agricultural products in September, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate was the lowest in 50 years!
On Friday, a report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. non-farm employment population increased by 263,000 in September, the smallest monthly increase since April 2021, better than the expected 255,000, and the previous value was 315,000. The U.S. unemployment rate in September was 3.5%, the lowest level in 50 years, below expectations of 3.7%, and was 3.7% before August.
Data shows that the average hourly wage in the United States increased by 5% year-on-year in September, with an expected increase of 5.1%, and a value increased by 5.2% before August. The average hourly wage in the United States increased by 0.3% month-on-month in September, and expected to increase by 0.3%, and the value before August increased by 0.3%. Overall, although the growth rate of hourly wage in the United States slowed slightly compared with August, it was still at a historical high.
The non-agricultural data in the United States should be the most important news during the entire National Day holiday. The positive non-agricultural data indicates that the US economic growth is relatively stable, which should be a good thing, but it is not a good thing for the capital market. The reason is "October A-share market outlook: The internal and external environment has undergone drastic changes during the long holiday! The probability of stopping the decline is 70%? In the article 》, Jingyang has pointed out, "This good news represents a tighter monetary policy, which undoubtedly increases the confidence of the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates in in early November!"
The United States' CPI data in mid-October became particularly important. If the CPI data remains at a high level, then the Fed will have a high probability of continuing to raise interest rates significantly in early November; on the contrary, if the CPI steadily declines in September, the Federal Reserve's motivation for a sharp interest rate hike will be much less.
For the global capital market, before the US CPI data was released in September, I am afraid that it will fall into a sensitive moment of suspicion. Any wave will cause severe fluctuations in the stock markets of various countries. This is what needs to attract our high attention!
4. The US side announced that it would implement new export controls on chips!
On October 8, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning presided over a regular press conference. At the meeting, a reporter from AFP mentioned that the U.S. Department of Commerce announced new export controls on chips. Mao Ning responded that the United States abused export control measures to maliciously block and suppress Chinese companies in order to maintain technological hegemony. This practice deviates from the principle of fair competition and violates international economic and trade rules, which not only harms the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies, but also affects the rights and interests of American companies.
Early, chip giant AMD just announced its expected third-quarter performance, far inferior to Wall Street . This shows that the United States restricts chip exports to China will not only suppress my country's chip industry chain, but also have an impact on local companies.
In fact, after the promulgation of the US chip bill, my country has begun to deal with various restrictions from the US. The next few years will be a critical moment for the domestic replacement of the domestic chip industry chain.
However, for the A-share market, this news is still a short-term negative. On the one hand, when the market environment is poor, negative news is easily over-interpreted; on the other hand, the weight of the chip industry chain is not small, and if chip stocks continue to fall sharply, it will also put pressure on the market.
We look at the news from the National Day holiday so far, the main negative comes from the United States' September non-agricultural data, as well as the resulting pressure on the Federal Reserve's sharp rate hike in November, expected . However, this negative news will not directly affect the A-share market. Most of the time, exchange rate and US stocks will need to play a role. Therefore, for a period of time after the holiday, whether the RMB exchange rate of can stabilize the depreciation pace and whether the US stocks can find out the stage of double bottom and stop falling will be the main basis for judging the operating trend of A-shares.
