Look back at The market has risen by 3708 since December 13, 2021 and failed to hold on 3700. It opened lower on December 14 and became a bear chart decline for 5 months. It is still in the C wave of this downward trend; looking back at the review, the lesson is too profound, and the combination of fundamentals and technical aspects is really important. We must face reality and return to the right path of rationality to get out of the dilemma.
How to see if the market has reached its top? Hongfu came to Zhuge to share it afterwards, and then read 3 points:
1. Look at the picture first and speak: The figure below shows that on December 13, it is an Twilight Star . The gap on the 14th is actually a 3700-3440 box decline. The rebound from January to February is actually just a platform for confirmation of the decline. The wave angle is the beginning of the big A wave.
Shanghai Index 2021-12.13 Daily Line Chart
2. Combined with the divergence between the comparison of volume and energy and the trend indicator of MACD , the figure above shows that when the trading volume hit 3700 on December 13, the trading volume was significantly weakened year-on-year compared with the high of 3700 on the left; in addition, MACD is also in a divergence state; the strength is very weak. Adding the gap of No. 14 to form the top of the box.
3. The combination of fundamentals is even more obvious. Look at the weight stock 002460 Ganfeng Lithium top after rushing to 224 on September 1, 2021. At that time, the market started to hit 3700. There is also Tianqi Lithium 002466, and CATL 300750 followed the market's rise and finally confirmed the decline on December 14 (it has fallen from 690 to 400 so far);
Ganfeng Lithium daily chart
corresponding performance situation can be said to directly make retail investors dare not trust performance anymore. Ganfeng Lithium Industry has grown sharply since its first quarter report on March 31, 2021, as if it has given enough value growth and sent stock reviews to inspire everyone to enter the market. Each quarter report has grown by more than 400%. However, the stock price is falling and it is falling a lot. ——So Hongfu’s current view on many stocks is that it is a good thing to perform well before the stock price rises sharply. When the stock price has already soared, you have to be careful whether you have been locked into a leek!
Ganfeng Lithium
Finally, let’s look at Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 100, Shanghai Shenzhen 300 Index , etc. and realize that the general trend has changed long ago:
CSI 100 Index Daily Trend Chart
Weight Index basically peaked in mid-February 2021. It was also from that time that new energy and automobiles became the mainstream of the new track. In disguise, it is giving institutions the opportunity to adjust their positions from large manufacturing, finance, infrastructure and other white horses. If you look at the trend of the leading brokerage firm 600030 CITIC Securities , you will understand. What is being cut in half is a bunch of so-called white horse stocks . Didn’t Dong’s Gree air conditioning also start to fall badly in February 2021?
CITIC Securities 600030 daily chart
Gree Electric Appliances 000651 daily chart
To sum up, looking back at the market, it is terrible. The roses that have been trapped can only be used to encourage themselves; if you wait and see the short position and wait and see, you will also sweat coldly. This is what makes the stock market more fascinating, and of course it is also the benefit of learning to have a memory. Hongfu summarized it one thing: If an individual or an institution does not have risk control, he must be prepared to be a leek when he comes in.
In terms of operation, follow the market as much as possible to the right side. You must admit that you really can't afford to offend the market, and you have to be beaten if you go against the trend! It is always right to respect the market! This is also the core reason why Hongfu has not yet become a great player for 15 years in the market. We have to change it and try to return to the correct route of rationality.
Here, Hongfu wishes friends who have been trapped in the stock market to return to their starting point as soon as possible and establish an investment logic that suits them as soon as possible. Hongfu hopes that personal sharing can help some stock friends avoid detours. Thank you for your followers and support from Hongfu! 168 Come on! [Struggle]
is for reference only, be cautious when entering the market!
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