Qifu Early Review (Friday, September 30, 2022)
firmly believe in the bottom of the market and firmly on the energy revolution
Market analysis
market: exchange rate soared, the outer side fell sharply, it seemed to be a breakthrough, it was really calm, it was already the bottom, there was no doubt.
trend: Actively go long near the downward trend line 3000 (+-50), hold good stocks, celebrate good festivals, and add some positions.
Configuration: New energy revolution, reshaping of the pharmaceutical industry, and peak consumption season.
event driver - photovoltaic cell
driver : After the EU plans to launch a 565 billion euro "energy system digitalization" plan, the battery price continues to rise again. Zhonglai Co., Ltd. single crystal N-type TOPCon battery, 140μm double-sided 182 battery cell price is quoted 1.44 yuan/W, up by 0.03 yuan/W.
Industry status: exports slow down, RMB depreciation, focus on large export proportions of companies, and demand increases.
August customs export data showed a total of 14.3GW photovoltaic modules exported, a year-on-year growth of 54%; cumulative exports from January to August were 108GW, a year-on-year increase of 96%. However, under the influence of rising supply chain prices and other reasons, growth slowed down significantly. Exports continued to decline month-on-month in the past few months, and -9% month-on-month in August.
After the upstream silicon material production capacity continues to be released, downstream battery cell has become a new shortage link, especially large-sized and new battery cells are undergoing phased supply and demand tightness, and the profits of the photovoltaic industry chain will gradually shift from upstream silicon material to downstream battery cells.
focus on two directions: battery cells and inverter
related companies: Trisone solar energy , Jinke Energy , Gudwei , etc.
industry-energy storage
Investment logic : European energy crisis, domestic Fengguang base construction, and the demand for the US energy storage market is increasing.
Industry status:
Domestic: In the first half of 2022, the installed capacity of large-scale energy storage in my country was about 0.8GWh, and there is relatively little network connection, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, and it is expected to improve in the second half of the year.
As of August, the projects under construction of energy storage have reached 18.1GWh, and these projects are expected to be connected to the grid by the end of the year, so we will see improvements in the large-scale energy storage data end in the second half of the year.
Foreign: 22-23 overall installed capacity in the United States is 20, 40GWh, yoy+94%/+111%.
Industry chain : battery, battery management system, two-way converter, energy management system, power distribution, temperature control, fire protection system.
Related companies:
Battery: Nandu Power Supply , CATL , etc.
Inverter: Sunshine Power Supply , Shenghong Shares, etc.
Temperature Control: yingvik , Tongfei Co., Ltd., etc.
Investment advisor: Lupeng
Practice certificate number: A1130620080001
Risk warning
The content of this official account is for reference only. Under no circumstances shall the information and opinions in the article constitute investment advice to anyone. Readers should judge whether to use the content and information contained in the article based on their investment objectives and financial situation and bear risks at their own risk. The Company and its employees shall not bear any legal or economic responsibility for all consequences arising from readers' use of the article and its content.
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