1. Macro interpretation
Fubao exclusive interpretation: Beijing time on Thursday (September 29) in the early Asian market, USD index traded around 112.7; the US dollar fell on Wednesday, setting a 20-year high of 114.79 earlier. The pound reversed the sharp drop against the US dollar and rebounded upward, after the Bank of England announced that it would buy British Treasury bonds; the yields of the US dollar and Treasury bonds fell, and gold prices rebounded, once rising nearly 50 US dollars; oil prices rose by 5%, returning to above the 80 mark, US fuel inventory data showed a decline greater than expected, and consumer demand rebounded.
downstream stockings before the festival, demand rebounded month-on-month, and the sustainability remains to be seen under the disturbance of factors such as the epidemic, production is basically flat, and inventory declines again. Against the backdrop of the decline in infrastructure elasticity and the gradual decline in exports, the importance of stabilizing real estate has been further prominent, housing sales have improved marginally, and the situation of weak new construction and land acquisition needs to be improved. The profit of ton of steel is small, and the marginal restrictions on production in Tangshan and other places have increased, and the supply pressure has gradually eased. Before the holiday, the market is in a state of mind, and the market is mainly fluctuating, so pay attention to position control.
thread 2301 contract oscillates at night, with pressure at 3835-3860 and support at 3800-3770. At present, the market position reduction fluctuates. The atmosphere before the festival is still there, and the mentality is to support the price, and the price fluctuation is relatively strong.
2. Industrial market
Scrap steel market information: The market has been stably adjusted recently. As the National Day holiday approaches, the market has improved. Steel companies have a little demand for replenishment. However, considering that the profits of steel companies are worrying, scrap steel is not cost-effective compared to molten iron. Most steel companies have no intention of raising prices at the moment, but it is not ruled out that steel companies with low inventory will rise slightly when the finished product trend is improving. Overall, short-term scrap steel is mostly stable and wait-and-see, and some are adjusted narrowly.
Billet: html Tangshan steel billet rose by 20 to 3,700 yuan/ton on the 228th. Currently, some local and surrounding steel mills in Tangshan reported carbon billets of 3,700 yuan/ton, and Qinhuangdao Lulong Steel Plant increased by 20 to 3,700 yuan/ton, both included tax. As the end of the month approaches, the market's delivery of has increased, and expectations of replenishing warehouses before the holiday are implemented. Under the hype of environmental protection production restrictions, demand for billets has been released. However, due to the general follow-up after the terminal demand rises, some downstream finished materials have shown weak transactions at high levels. At the same time, under the pressure of capital at the end of the month, the market has a phenomenon of shipment decline and shipment, and there is resistance to the continuous increase in billet prices. Therefore, it is expected that the price of steel billets will fluctuate stably in the short term.
Coke: 28th Linfen first-level wet coke quenching factory with tax of 2,630 yuan/ton; Tangshan quasi-level wet coke quenching factory with tax of 2,620 yuan/ton; Weifang quasi-level dry coke quenching factory with tax of 2,910 yuan/ton. The domestic coke market is temporarily operating stably. In terms of supply, the price of coking coal at the raw material side has continued to rise recently, and the profit margin of coking enterprises has narrowed. A small number of coking enterprises have already cut production due to various factors such as losses, environmental protection and funds. The production limit ranges from 10% to 30%. Considering that coal prices may continue to rise slightly, and the first round of increase has not been implemented for a long time, the remaining coking enterprises also have expectations of production cuts, and the supply side has begun to show signs of tightening. In terms of demand, the overall operating rate of steel mills is high, and the demand for replenishment before the holiday is still there, and steel prices fluctuate upward, profits have been slightly restored, and market sentiment has recovered, which is more likely to support this round of price increase. In terms of ports, the spot quotations of ports have been temporarily stable, and the sentiment of the trade port has improved slightly. It is expected that the coke market will be stable and strong in the short term.
3. Steel market dynamics
[Building Materials] [Close] Close on the 28th, the price of Hegang third-level earthquake-resistant large snail in Beijing market was 4,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai market was 3,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day; the Guangzhou market was 4,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the Guangzhou market was 4,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the previous day; the Shanghai market was 7
[Forecast]: The national linear spiral prices rose and fell on the 28th, with the fluctuation range between 10-40. According to Fubao statistics, 17 cities operated smoothly, accounting for 33%, 1 fell city, accounting for 2%, and 34 cities rose, accounting for 65%. The futures spiral fluctuated red. The stock was significantly replenished before the festival in the past two days. The market collectively increased inbound and shipped goods. In combination with the driving force of raw materials and market surface, the market transactions increased significantly. Since the expected rate hike in was expected to be in , black materials started a wave of upward attack driven by the continuous rise of the double-foot. Before the festival, as the best attack time window for bulls, there is a possibility of further upward attack. Taking into account comprehensively, today's market is mainly stable and more focused on adjustments.
Fubao analysis is as follows: 1. The cost side support is firm 2. The transaction volume of stocks is increased by 3. The plate screw is relatively strong and the support is driven by it.
is now priced at Hesteel's third-level earthquake-resistant large snail in the Beijing market, which is stable compared with the previous day. The Shanghai market is 3,930 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with the previous day. The Guangzhou market is 4,240 yuan/ton, which is stable compared with the previous day.
[Hot Coil] html On the 228th, the national hot coil mainstream was stable and strong, with an amplitude of 10-50 yuan. When the date coil opened high and closed low, the market sentiment was cautious, spot transactions were difficult, merchants' willingness to support prices became weak, some regions lowered prices slightly, downstream customers were not enthusiastic about purchasing, and the overall trading atmosphere was deserted, and the short-term price was expected to be consolidated steadily.
[Cold Rolling] html On the 228th, the national cold rolling mainstream was stable and strong, with an amplitude of 10-50 yuan. The market mentality was relatively cautious. The downstream was cautious about high-level resources. Before the holiday, the downstream replenished the warehouse at low levels. The overall transaction was average. The merchants were up-to-date. Given the cost-side support, the current price was expected to be consolidated stably.
[Medium and Thick Board] html National mid-board fluctuated steadily on the 228th, with an amplitude of 10-30 yuan. Under cost support, the mainstream mentality is more firm, but spot transactions slowed down compared with yesterday. Some high-level resources can be negotiated. Merchants expect to wait and see more, and it is expected that they will be consolidated steadily today.
[ strip steel ] 28 strip steel maintains stability and adjusts, North China's leading steel mills remain stable, Tangshan narrow belt mainstream has risen 20% steadily, and overall transactions are generally acceptable. Some manufacturers have cleared Nissan, and the spot spot has weakened, and the high-level support is insufficient, and the price has been weak, but low-level transactions are acceptable. East China and South China are stable and strong, and high-level transactions are relatively weak. Considering the cost side, it is expected that the current price may be consolidated firmly.
[Profile] 28 nationwide profiles are running steadily. The blanks are supported at high levels, demand maintains the status quo, and the transaction pace slows down. Some manufacturers have tried to rise, and high transactions are particularly weak. rolling mills are waiting and see and sorting out. It is expected that the model price will be low and high in the short term.
[Pipe] html Pipe prices were stable and strong on the 228th. The market was slightly lowered at a high level, the cost side was still firm, the spot market growth slowed down, some manufacturers had a sense of replenishment, and Tianjin's transactions were hindered due to the impact of the epidemic. The atmosphere of the National Day holiday gradually increased, and downstream replenishment slowed down. It is expected that the pipe market will be strong today.
Source: Fubao Steel
