1,
In 2020, the word "revenge consumption" can often be heard.
At that time, the prospects of many industries were facing great uncertainty.
When various industries talk about consumption, they are more like cheering themselves up.
For example, the tourism industry will be good by the end of the year...
The catering industry will definitely improve when the festival is...
Retail industry will wait until 618, Singles' Day will definitely rebound...
By 2021, some industries have already changed careers on a large scale.
consumption did not come, what was waiting for was the public's "crazy savings".
This year, it will be even more difficult to get everyone to take out the cash from their pockets.
The situation of double killing in the real estate market and stock market has made many people confused with money.
The currency that has been continuously over-issued suddenly has nowhere to go.
2,
In the past six months, real estate has experienced a huge rescue operation.
Under the framework of " One City, One Policy ", each place can be regarded as the Eight Immortals crossing the sea and showing their magical powers.
includes but is not limited to the following means:
Relax the restrictions on loans, relax purchase restrictions, provide housing purchase subsidies , reduce mortgage interest rates, tax and fee reductions, increase provident fund loan amount , etc.
But what is the effect?
45 The transaction area of new houses in first-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities in cities has dropped by about 30%, and the transaction area of second-hand houses has dropped by about 20%.
New home sales (as of September 15)
second-hand home sales (as of September 17) Source: WIND, Dongxing Securities
Domestic intermediary leader, Beike 's second-quarter financial report also shows signs of no improvement in the market.
Beike's total second-hand housing transaction scale in the second quarter fell by about 41% year-on-year, better than its peers.
3,
In the case of continued poor rescue, many places have begun to increase their efforts.
, especially second-tier cities, release of policies is more intense. Zhengzhou, Changchun, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Suzhou , Qingdao and other places have introduced policies to relax the real estate market.
Subsequently, on September 14, Suzhou relaxed the purchase restriction policy across the entire region.
Non-locals buy their first home in Suzhou District 6 ( Wuzhong District , Wujiang District , Gusu District , Xiangcheng District , high-tech zone, industrial park) without requiring an social guarantee or personal income tax certificate, but only 1 set is limited to purchase.
html On September 15, Qingdao followed up.
The official official account of Qingdao Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau has released a message saying that except for , the south and the second district of Shibei, other areas in Qingdao will no longer implement housing purchase restrictions. For newly built commercial housing in the purchase restricted area, local residents can purchase 2 units, and families with two or three children can purchase one unit, and residents outside the country can purchase one unit for half a year; second-hand housing will no longer be restricted...
This operation of fully liberalizing purchase restrictions was stopped after only one day.
On the one hand, the results of housing for living, not for speculation have been destroyed. This kind of operation in strong second-tier cities may cause other cities to form a follow-up effect.
On the other hand, what if this kind of fully relaxed operation still cannot stimulate the real estate market?
Once the property market is completely loosened, there is no sign of improvement, the market may turn completely and accelerate its decline.
4,
In 2015, the real estate market started "price increase and inventory reduction" . Since then, many people seem to have a "misunderstanding".
is a bull market that can be created by relaxing the purchase and loan restrictions with the joint efforts of developers.
This can be done in 2015, but it may not work if it does this in 2022.
My previous real estate in a second-tier city tried to sell it at the market price, but no one cared about it.
A must-have told me that he is now facing a large number of new and second-hand houses, so he can bargain slowly.
This is the current situation of the real estate market in non-first-tier cities, with a large amount of inventory, a tight purchasing power, and a confidence in buying a house that has dropped to freezing point.
So what about first-tier cities?
Beijing has also undergone some "toothpaste-squeezing" changes recently.
For example, support "old people" to buy houses, Tongzhou double limits for buying houses are loosened.
Real estate loosening in first-tier cities must be cautious.
Because megacities with net population inflows are not short of purchasing power.
The loosening of the real estate market means that the leverage of residents in big cities has increased again.
The already sluggish consumption may be overdrawn for another 10 years.
5,
resident leverage ratio (resident debt/GDP) is the most commonly used resident department leverage measurement indicator.
In order to facilitate international comparison, the data caliber of Bank of International Settlements is used here.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2021, the leverage ratio of in the domestic resident sector was 61.6%.
is higher than the emerging market level (51.0%) and lower than Japan (66.9%), developed economies (75.7%) and the United States (78.5%).
Resident leverage ratio comparison Source: BIS, Zhongtai Securities
According to the IMF standard, our current resident debt has had an impact on medium-term economic growth.
But in theory, the leverage ratio of domestic residents is not extremely high.
At the same time, face everyone's saving habits picked up again.
Some people are also studying how to "mobilize" our savings.
Leverage space + excess savings still gives real estate some room for imagination.
But I still hope that the property market can give the people more time to "gasp".
Don’t let the post-90s and post-00s spend half their lives overdrawing their consumption on that steel and concrete box.
