In the past week, the market has changed suddenly and has ushered in a continuous negative news. The following 4 sets of simple charts can quickly understand the current trend, style, track position and key logical points
1, pessimism in measuring stock and bond yield differences: All A non-financial petroleum and petrochemicals are around -2X, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 non-financial distance is 8% still in the -2X standard deviation.
2. The stock and bond yield difference hits -2X standard deviation, which means extremely pessimistic about fundamentals. If the fundamentals follow up as bad as expected, then the index will fluctuate. If the subsequent fundamentals, that is, economic expectations, can be comprehensively improved, then the index is a reversal. Therefore, the key is how to take medium- and long-term loans that measure economic trends?
(Note: The overall growth rate of medium and long-term loans in August was 10.10% year-on-year, and 10.13% in July, basically flat. Looking forward, the strong recovery of the economy and medium- and long-term loans may need to wait for the clearance and resonance of three factors:
① Wait for the clearance of the inventory cycle. Judging from the data from May to July, it is still in the stage of active destocking.
② Wait for the clearance of the global economy. Although the US economy fell at a high level, its consumption is still resilient.
③ Wait for the clearance of domestic real estate, which may eventually be marked by the large-scale acquisition of private real estate companies by state-owned enterprises and central enterprises.)
3. Whether medium and long-term loans are elastic determine the performance elasticity of the traditional economic sector and also determine whether the market style can turn to big finance, big consumption, and the Internet.
4. The proportion of transaction volume can be used to describe the congestion of a growth track. In early July, our mid-term strategy in Changsha suggested the risk of excessive transaction volume accounting for several tracks, and then began to adjust. At present, the proportion of transaction volume in some tracks has fallen back to the safe area first, such as military industry, so military industry rebounded first in early September. The congestion of wind power has also dropped to safe areas in the past week.
This article comes from the financial world
