(report producer/analyst: Everbright Securities Wang Zhaohua)
, company profile .1, company equity structure
Shanxi Huayang Group New Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Huayang Shares") is a company in Shanxi Province A very large state-owned coal enterprise, its main products are divided into three categories: coal, electricity, and heat. In 2021, the coal segment's operating revenue accounted for 95.07%. The coal products are mainly high-quality anthracite, which can be used for electricity, fertilizers, metallurgy, machinery, building materials, etc. industry.
As of the first quarter report of 2022, the company’s first shareholder is Huayang New Material Technology Group, which holds 55.51% of the company’s shares, and the actual controller is Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission .
holds 15.56% of the shares of Zhongke Haina, a sodium-ion battery research and development company, through its Yangmei Intelligent Manufacturing Fund. On April 1, 2022, Hubble Technology Investment Partnership (referred to as "Shenzhen Hubble"), a subsidiary of Huawei , also became a shareholder of Zhongke Hainan.
According to Tianyan Check , as of May 20, 2022, Shenzhen Hubble’s shareholding ratio in Zhongke Haina reached 13.3333%, and Huayang Co., Ltd.’s equity shareholding ratio in Zhongke Haina was 7.75%.
.2. Company development history
Huayang Co., Ltd. was established in 1999 and listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2003.
The company's predecessor was Shanxi Guoyang New Energy Co., Ltd. . In 2011, the company was renamed Yangquan Coal Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. Since then, the company has been committed to expanding and strengthening its main coal power business and promoting the overall listing of the coal industry. : In 2015, the company replaced part of the coal-fired power assets held by Yangmei Group with its 100% stake in Guomao Company (51% stake in Jinzhong Yangmei Yangde Coalbed Methane Power Generation Co., Ltd.; Coalbed Methane Power Generation Co., Ltd. Company assets and assets of the Coalbed Methane Development and Utilization Branch; Yangquan Coal Industry Group Chuangriboli Coal Industry Co., Ltd. 70% equity; part of the mining assets leased by Yangquan Coal Group to Shanxi Xinjing Mine Coal Industry Co., Ltd.) .
In 2016, in order to speed up the pace of asset integration and promote the integrated development strategy of coal and electricity, the company acquired 100% equity of Xishangzhuang Low Calorific Value Thermal Power Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yangmei Group; in 2018, the company invested in the establishment of Yangquan Yangmei Electric Power Co., Ltd. The company; in October 2020, the company continued to integrate coal and power assets and acquired 100% equity of Qiyuan Coal Co., Ltd. held by Yangmei Group.
Starting in 2020, Shanxi has implemented a new round of strategic and professional reorganization of provincial state-owned enterprises in important fields, reorganizing 28 provincial state-owned enterprises into 18 key backbone enterprise groups. Among them, the coal and electricity-related assets of Tongmei Group, Jinmei Group, Jinneng Group, Lu'an Group and Yangmei Group were merged into Jinneng Holding Group. After the reorganization, Yangquan Coal Group was renamed Huayang New Materials Technology Group, retaining the Yangquan Coal listed company and some coal mine assets, and assuming the leading role in the development of new materials industry in Shanxi Province.
At the same time, the company actively participated in the group's new material transformation: In January 2021, the company name was changed from "Yangquan Coal Industry (Group) Co., Ltd." to "Shanxi Huayang Group New Energy Co., Ltd.", and the securities abbreviation was changed from "Yangquan Coal Industry" was changed to "Huayang Shares"; in March 2021, the company received the Yangmei Intelligent Manufacturing Fund and invested in the "Beijing Qifeng" and "Zhongke Haina" projects, involving flywheel energy storage and sodium-ion battery businesses respectively; 2021 In April 2020, the company and Zhongke Haina jointly invested in the construction of a kiloton-level production project for sodium-ion battery cathode materials and a kiloton-level production project for sodium-ion battery anode materials, further advancing the layout of sodium-ion batteries; on June 28, 2021, the company The world's first 1MWh sodium ion energy storage system was successfully put into operation; in September 2021, the company signed a "Strategic Cooperation Framework" with electrolyte industry leader Polyfluoro New Materials Co., Ltd. and Wutongshu Capital Agreement", it is planned to carry out in-depth cooperation in the fields of sodium hexafluorophosphate and sodium-ion batteries, electrolyte additives, anode materials, research institutes and industrial Internet.
.3, the company's main business
In 2021, the company's operating income was 38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.89%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.534 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 134.80%, mainly due to the control of the new crown epidemic and the prosperity of the coal industry. As a result, the company's coal volume and price increased, driving rapid growth in performance.
The current coal business is still the company’s core revenue and profit source.
The company’s coal business has accounted for more than 90% of its operating income since 2013. Other businesses such as power supply, heating, and transportation have supplemented the company’s operating income and gross profit. The company's coal products are divided into lump coal, pulverized coal and finished coal . Among them, washed lump coal is mainly supplied to chemical companies in Shandong and Hebei; washed pulverized coal is mainly supplied to large steel plants for injection coal; The melting point of sulfur and ash is relatively high, and it is mainly supplied to large power plants for power generation.
In 2021, the company's washed lump coal contributed 12.27% of sales revenue, with a gross profit margin of 40.58%; washed fine coal sales revenue accounted for 5.97%, with a gross profit margin of 38.23%; washed coal contributed 75.08% of sales revenue, with a gross profit margin of 35.25%.
From 2013 to 2020, the company's washed coal sales increased significantly, and the sales of washed lump coal, washed pulverized coal, coal slime remained basically stable. The company's coal sales volume will decline in 2021, mainly because the company will no longer purchase coal from Huayang Group and its subsidiaries from May 21 after the asset transfer of the company's controlling shareholder.
In 2021, the company's comprehensive coal selling price was 605 yuan/ton, +69.5% year-on-year. Among them, the comprehensive selling prices of washed lump coal, washed pulverized coal, washed coal, and coal slime were 920, 1076, 569, and 277 yuan/ton respectively, year-on-year. +55.3%, +62.1%, +66.6%, +111.4%. Due to the unified sales of coal by the company's purchasing group and its subsidiaries, the gross profit margin has always remained at a low level.
With the transfer of the group's assets and the transfer of the management rights of the remaining coal mines of the group, the company will no longer purchase coal from the group and its subsidiaries for consignment sales after May 2021. The gross profit margin of the company's coal business has increased significantly. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the coal business will be 37.31%. , a year-on-year increase of 20.5Pct.
.4. Financial analysis
anthracite business provides better free cash flow . The company's net profit attributable to the parent company has been positive since its listing in 2003. We pay more attention to the company's free cash flow indicators, because free cash flow is less affected by accounting methods than the company's net profit. After the company's listing, 19 Free cash flow during the year has been negative for only 6 years, indicating that the company's anthracite coal business provides better free cash flow.
company's profit content is relatively high.
The net cash ratio is the ratio of operating net cash flow and net profit. It can be a good measure of the company's profit quality. It is generally considered to be an excellent level if it reaches 1. After the listing of Huayang Co., Ltd., the net cash flow generated from operating activities has been positive, and the company's net cash ratio has remained basically stable after 2017. This shows that the company itself has good "blood-making" capabilities and is operating well. Huayang Shares' net cash ratio has remained above 1.7 in recent years, reaching 2.39 in 2020. The net cash ratio in 2021 has declined compared with 2020. (Report source: Yuanzhan Think Tank)
, the company's core advantages .1, abundant anthracite resource reserves, production capacity is expected to increase
As of the end of 2021, the company's coal resources totaled 3.11 billion tons, and the recoverable reserves were 1.55 billion tons. It is mainly anthracite coal, including lean coal, lean coal , coking coal, and gas coal . The Yangquan mining area where the company's coal mine is located is one of the five largest anthracite production bases in my country. As of the end of 2021, the company has 8 operating mines and 1 discontinued mine, with a total approved production capacity of 34.5 million tons and an equity production capacity of 29.28 million tons.
Regarding mines under construction, the company established a "Mine Construction Project Promotion Working Group" to comprehensively accelerate the construction of two new 5-million-ton mines in Qiyuan and Boli.
.2. Obvious location advantage, stable cooperation with major domestic customers
The company is located in Yangquan City is located in the middle of the two provincial capital cities of Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang. It has the title of "Eastern Gate of Shanxi", Shijiazhuang Taipei Railway and Shitai Expressway passes through the mining area, and the transportation is very convenient. The company's railway transportation spans two railway branches, Shijiazhuang and Taiyuan. It is 110 kilometers away from Taiyuan in the west and 120 kilometers away from Shijiazhuang in the east. It has three coal-generating stations, including Yangquan, Baiyangshu and Shouyang, as well as advanced storage and transportation systems. It is a state-owned large-scale coal enterprise with key railway protection.
The company adheres to the transportation strategy of "railway as the mainstay and highway as the supplement", and the railway shipment volume is increasing year by year.
Compared with road transportation, railway transportation has the characteristics of low freight, large transportation volume, fast speed and high reliability, which provides a strong guarantee for the performance of long-term coal agreements.
According to the company’s 2021 annual report, the company’s smokeless washed medium-sized blocks and washed small-sized blocks are mainly supplied to chemical companies in Shandong and Hebei; the company’s anthracite coal is mainly supplied to the five major group power plants in Hebei and Shandong. The proportion of long-term thermal coal users is More than 80% (railway).
.3. Relying on high-quality negative electrode material anthracite, switching to sodium-ion batteries
According to the company's 2021 social responsibility report , the company is guided by the "3060" dual carbon goals and is committed to green and low-carbon development of energy, focusing on the national new energy industry. The strategic layout aims at energy storage, a "stuck" technology in the new energy field, and builds an intelligent manufacturing base for the three major industries of photovoltaics, sodium-ion batteries, and flywheel energy storage.
Zhongke Haina Technology Co., Ltd. is a high-tech enterprise focusing on the R&D and production of a new generation of energy storage systems - sodium-ion batteries.
Zhongke Haina now has a research and development team headed by Academician Chen Liquan of the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Researcher Hu Yongsheng as the technical leader. It has a number of core patents for sodium-ion batteries and is one of the few in the world to have core patents for sodium-ion batteries and One of the leading battery companies in China.
Low-cost sodium-ion batteries are expected to be applied in low-speed electric vehicles , electric boats , home energy storage, grid energy storage and other fields. Anthracite is an excellent anode material for sodium-ion batteries.
Anthracite is a dense, hard and high-gloss coal variety. It is the coal with the highest degree of coalification. It not only has the characteristics of high fixed carbon content, low ash and volatile matter, but also has the same performance and structure as needle coke Very similar to petroleum coke. Especially for low-ash high-quality anthracite, the ash content can be reduced to less than 3% after high temperature treatment.
Due to the high degree of coalization, the yield of direct pyrolysis of anthracite is as high as 90%. Finally, anthracite can increase the yield of negative electrode material carbon, thereby reducing costs.
The Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences uses anthracite as a precursor and obtains a carbon anode material with excellent sodium storage performance through simple crushing and one-step carbonization. The soft carbon material obtained by
cracking anthracite still has a high degree of disorder below 1600°C, the carbon production rate is as high as 90%, the sodium storage capacity reaches 220mAh/g, the cycle stability is excellent, and the performance is better than that from asphalt. Soft carbon material.
According to information from the official website of Zhongke Haina, anthracite soft carbon anode materials are currently the most cost-effective among all carbon-based anodes. Using anthracite to prepare amorphous carbon anode materials will help significantly reduce battery costs.
Compared with biomass hard carbon, anthracite coal has more advantages in large-scale production. The productivity rate of biomass hard carbon is low, only 20% to 30%. Anthracite has the highest degree of coalification, and direct pyrolysis will have a yield of 90%, allowing the carbon output to be rapidly increased in a short period of time. Therefore, anthracite is extremely valuable among negative electrode materials. High cost performance.
The world's first 1MWh sodium-ion battery energy storage system launched by Zhongke Haina uses anthracite as a precursor to prepare sodium-ion battery anode materials, which has the characteristics of low cost and high safety performance.
.4. Lay out multiple new energy businesses and explore new development paths
Company and its parent company Huayang New Materials Group, in addition to sodium-ion batteries, also lay out multiple new energy businesses and explore new development paths:
(1) Flywheel Energy Storage
On March 21, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration issued the "14th Five-Year Plan New Energy Storage Development Implementation Plan", pointing out that by 2025, new energy storage will move from the early stage of commercialization to large-scale At the development stage, it has the conditions for large-scale commercial application. Among them, mechanical energy storage technologies such as megawatt-level flywheel energy storage will gradually mature. The
flywheel energy storage system uses physical methods, that is, it uses an electric/generation reciprocal bidirectional motor to convert electrical energy into the mechanical kinetic energy of a high-speed running flywheel to achieve the purpose of energy storage.
Compared with lithium batteries, lead-acid batteries , pumped storage and other energy storage methods, flywheel energy storage power stations have the advantages of large output power, fast instantaneous response, low long-term operation and maintenance costs, safety and reliability, green environmental protection and no pollution, etc. . According to incomplete statistics from the Energy Storage Special Committee of the China Energy Research Association/Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, as of the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in operation in China (including physical energy storage, electrochemical energy storage and Thermal storage) reached 45.75 GW, an increase of 29% from the end of 2020.
In 2021, China's new energy storage capacity will reach 10.19 GW. Among them, pumped hydro storage has the largest scale at 8.05 GW; lithium-ion battery ranks second, with an operational scale of 1.84 GW; flywheel energy storage is only 2.8MW , accounting for 0.03% of the overall proportion, there is still considerable room for improvement.
Flywheel energy storage system is suitable for power system frequency regulation, wind power and other intermittent new energy power generation , uninterruptible power supply (UPS), rail transit braking energy recovery, pulse power supply and other fields. There are currently application cases abroad.
According to the 2021 Social Responsibility Report of Huayang Co., Ltd., in the field of rail transit renewable energy recovery, the potential market size is estimated to reach hundreds of billions; in the field of thermal power frequency regulation, the potential market size is estimated to reach tens of billions; in the field of frequency regulation of new energy stations, The potential market size can reach hundreds of billions.
Huayang Co., Ltd. is following the development trend of this era and actively deploying the flywheel energy storage industry. It relies on Yangquan Qifeng Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Shanxi Xinyang Clean Energy Co., Ltd., to carry out production business. It has currently achieved an annual production capacity of 200 Taiwan sets, the main products are 1000KW/600KW/400KW/200KW flywheel energy storage.
's flywheel energy storage business has independent intellectual property rights and a 1-2 year lead in technical reserves.
(2) Photovoltaic component project
According to the 2021 Social Responsibility Report of Huayang Co., Ltd., during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's average annual newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be 70GW-90GW. By 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will be Reaching more than 1,200GW, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation will reach more than 3,000GW by 2060.
Central enterprises have also set clear dual-carbon goals, and the proportion of renewable energy power generation installed capacity will reach more than 50% by 2025. The company gives full play to its advantages in traditional energy sales and conducts in-depth cooperation with the "five major and four small" power generation groups and other power companies, realizing the goal of "sales to the five major power generation groups and other power companies" in the past and "sales to the five major power generation groups and other power companies in the future" The transformation of "photovoltaic + energy storage".
In the future, Huayang Co., Ltd. will continue to deploy projects in new energy fields such as photovoltaic modules, sodium-ion batteries, and flywheel energy storage. Through the construction of a "photovoltaic + electrochemical energy storage + physical energy storage + smart microgrid + charging pile" system, we will create "New energy + energy storage" is the ultimate solution for future energy. (Report source: Yuanzhan Think Tank)
, Anthracite Industry Overview .1, Supply Side
The company has abundant coal reserve resources, most of which are anthracite, a scarce coal type. Anthracite is the coal with the greatest degree of coalification. It has high fixed carbon content, low volatile matter, high density, high hardness, high ignition point, no smoke when burned, and a calorific value of about 6000-6500 kcal/kg.According to data from the Industry Information Network, the country's anthracite coal reserves in 2016 were approximately 113.079 billion tons, accounting for only 13% of the country's total coal.
China's anthracite coal is mainly distributed in Shanxi and Guizhou provinces, followed by Henan and Sichuan provinces.
The retained resource reserves of anthracite coal in these four provinces are: Shanxi 44.8 billion tons, accounting for 39.6% of China's retained anthracite reserves; Guizhou 32.680 billion tons, accounting for 28.9% of China's retained anthracite reserves; Henan 7 billion tons, accounting for 6.2%; Sichuan 5.412 billion tons, accounting for 4.8% of China's anthracite reserves.
The predicted geological reserves of unproven anthracite coal in the country are 474.243 billion tons, including 201.863 billion tons in Shanxi, 114.947 billion tons in Guizhou, 44.083 billion tons in Henan, 32.08 billion tons in Shaanxi, 18.578 billion tons in Ningxia, 13.326 billion tons in Sichuan, etc.
After Beijing Jingmei Group’s production capacity was shut down and withdrawn, there are only five major anthracite coal bases left in my country: Jincheng Coal Group , Jiaozuo Coal Group, Yongcheng Coal Mining Area , Shenhua Ningxia Coal Group, and Yangquan Coal Group. Among them, Yangquan Coal Industry Group (now Huayang New Materials Group) is the largest anthracite production base in my country.
my country’s anthracite coal production in 2021 will be 354 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.15%.
Since 2016, the overall output of anthracite coal in my country has changed little. The output in 2017 dropped by 5.7% compared with 2016, and maintained a slight growth from 2018 to 2020. In 2021, the year-on-year increase of 5.15% will bring the annual anthracite output back to the level of more than 350 million tons. .
Huayang Co., Ltd. has a coal output of 46.1 million tons in 2021, making it the listed company with the largest anthracite coal output in China. Shanxi Province, where
company is located, is the largest anthracite coal-producing province in China. In 2021, Shanxi Province's anthracite coal production was 226 million tons, accounting for 64% of domestic anthracite coal production.
company has significant advantages in production technology. Currently, the company adopts the most advanced production technology for thick coal seam mining at home and abroad - fully mechanized top coal caving technology. The coal output obtained through this technology already accounts for 70% of the company's total coal output. In addition, the company is also actively planning to build digital mines, and has firmly mastered a number of forward-looking and disruptive key technologies, such as precise geological detection, roadway surrounding rock control, coal pillar-free mining along gobs, and automated fully mechanized mining working faces, etc. The promotion and application of first-class technical equipment.
In terms of imports, my country imported 9.239 million tons of anthracite coal in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 19.18%, accounting for only 2.6% of domestic anthracite coal production in 2021. Among them, 8.918 million tons of anthracite coal was imported from Russia, accounting for 96.5%.
.2, demand side
Anthracite coal is divided into anthracite lump coal, anthracite powdered coal and anthracite powder coal based on particle size.
Anthracite coal with a particle size of 13mm~25mm is called smokeless small block, 25mm~50mm is called smokeless medium block, and greater than 50mm is called smokeless large block. Block coal is mainly used for chemical gas production, ammonia synthesis, and a Production of a series of coal chemical products, such as urea , methanol , acetic acid, etc.; those with a particle size below 6mm are anthracite pulverized coal, which is mainly used for blast furnace injection during ironmaking; those with a particle size below 13mm are called smokeless powder Coal is generally used for power generation in power plants.
The total national anthracite coal consumption in 2021 will be 55.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.55%. After 2018, the national total anthracite coal consumption will maintain a slight upward trend every year.
In terms of coal types, the downstream consumption of anthracite coal is mainly thermal coal accounting for 54%, followed by injection coal accounting for 27% and lump coal accounting for 13%. The main downstream source of the company's coal is the power generation industry, which mainly uses coal for power.
The company's anthracite coal sales in 2021 accounted for 83.96% of the company's total coal sales. The output of anthracite lump coal used in coal chemical industry and anthracite powdered coal used for injection was smaller, accounting for 8.49% of the company's total coal sales respectively. and 3.53%.
From the thermal coal demand side, in May 2022, domestic thermal power production accounted for 63.1% of the overall power generation, a new monthly low in the past 12 years. Since 2022, the proportion of other clean energy power generation has increased compared with the past, and the impact of thermal power on There is a certain squeeze on output. From March to May 2022, the proportions of other clean energy power generation were 18%, 19.1%, and 17.9% respectively, an increase of 3.5Pct, 4.0Pct, and 2.2Pct respectively compared with the same period last year.
However, the current coal inventory in power plants is still at a low level during the same period. As of July 4, the coal inventory of the six major power generation groups was 10.925 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%. The demand for active replenishment in the subsequent "peak summer" period is still strong.
As the epidemic in Shanghai continues to improve, the demand suppressed by the epidemic in the southeastern coastal areas will gradually be released. On May 11, the State Council executive meeting proposed that power cuts will never be allowed, so there is still a certain guarantee for future demand for thermal coal terminals.
From the demand side of injection coal, on April 19, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that "in 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment , the National Bureau of Statistics will continue to carry out national crude steel Production reduction work will ensure a year-on-year decrease in national crude steel production in 2022." The injection coal market is under pressure.
From March to May 2022, my country's crude steel output was 88.2949 million tons, 92.775 million tons and 96.613 million tons respectively, down 6.1%, 5.2% and 2.9% year-on-year respectively.
From the demand side of lump coal, it is mainly used in the field of synthetic ammonia, which is an important raw material for urea. As of July 8, 2022, the weekly output of urea reached 1.118 million tons, an increase of 12.7% from the beginning of the year. Although it has declined from the peak in June, it is still at a high level during the year. It is expected that partial autumn fertilizer preparation in East and Central China will be sustainable in the future. By mid-to-late October, demand for lump coal was still supported.
.3, price side
On May 6, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission held a special meeting, emphasizing that the mid- to long-term and spot prices of seawater coal (5500 kcal) from Qinhuangdao Port exceeded 770 yuan and 1155 yuan per ton respectively. In the Shanxi coal mining process The long-term and spot prices exceed 570 yuan and 855 yuan per ton respectively. The medium- and long-term and spot prices of coal mining in Shaanxi exceed 520 yuan and 780 yuan per ton respectively. The medium- and long-term and spot prices of coal mining in western Inner Mongolia exceed 460 yuan and 780 yuan per ton respectively. Yuan, 690 yuan, and the mid- to long-term and spot prices of Mengdong coal (3500 kcal) in the mining process exceed 300 yuan and 450 yuan per ton respectively. If there is no legitimate reason, it can generally be regarded as price gouging.
Under the price limit policy, the price of anthracite coal has slightly adjusted back from the high level. According to WIND data, Jincheng anthracite powder coal (A15%, V6-7%, 0.5%S, Q6000) pit price once adjusted back to 1170 yuan/tax including tax. tons, Yangquan anthracite coal (A9-12%, V6-7%, 0.8-1.2%S, Q6500) vehicle plate price including tax is 1,100 yuan/ton, which has slightly adjusted back 4.1% and 4.3% respectively since the beginning of May.
However, subsequent prices have recovered. As of July 1, 2022, the above two prices have risen to 1,250 yuan/ton and 1,180 yuan/ton respectively, an increase of 2.5% and 2.6% from the beginning of May.
The price of anthracite coal since the beginning of 2022 is still higher than that of the same period last year. The average values of the above two prices from the beginning of the year to July 1, 2022 were 1,293.75 yuan/ton and 1,223.75 yuan/ton respectively, which was an increase of 65.5% and 72% compared with the average value of the same period last year.
Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and Dean of the Institute of Deep Earth Science and Green Energy of Shenzhen University Xie Heping said, “my country’s resource endowment and the current economic and social development reality determine that my country’s economic and social development will still be inseparable in the short term. coal".
’s “Development Opportunities for the Coal Industry under the Target of Carbon Neutrality” written by him mentioned, “Before 2030, in order to adapt to the requirements of carbon peak , new energy sources such as wind and light will be the main body to meet the incremental energy demand, and the scale growth rate Fast, but due to the small base, the proportion of new energy in the energy consumption structure increases slowly, gradually approaching from 15% to 30%, becoming a supplementary energy source.
However, because my country’s energy consumption remains at a high level, the increase in new energy cannot keep up with energy demand. Increment, coal consumption remains stable or slightly increased, maintaining at 3.5 billion to 4.5 billion tons. "It can be seen that my country's coal consumption will remain at a high level before carbon peaks (2030).
We believe that with the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic situation, the acceleration of resumption of work and production, and the arrival of peak coal consumption in summer, coal demand is expected to recover. Considering that the current anthracite coal price is still significantly higher than the same period last year, the central coal price in 2022 is still expected to remain high. Referring to the "Price Range Determined, Fundamentals Support Mid- and Long-term Investment Opportunities - Coal Sector Dynamic Comments" issued by Everbright Securities on March 8, 2022, we believe that the tight balance of the coal industry in the mid- to long-term is worth looking forward to.
. Sodium-ion batteries help the company's secondary growth .1. The advantage of sodium-ion batteries lies in cost, while the disadvantages lie in energy density and cycle life.
Sodium-ion batteries are a kind of secondary battery. They work on a similar principle to lithium-ion batteries and mainly rely on sodium ions work by moving between the positive and negative electrodes. Sodium-ion batteries are mainly used in energy storage, communication base stations, engineering machinery and other fields that do not require high energy density. Sodium-ion batteries have unique advantages in terms of low-temperature performance and fast charging, especially in high-power scenarios in alpine regions.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" New Energy Storage Development Implementation Plan jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration in February 2022 proposed that by 2025, new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the early stage of commercialization and be capable of large-scale commercialization. Application conditions. Among them, the performance of electrochemical energy storage technology has been further improved, and the system cost has been reduced by more than 30%. When the
document lists energy storage technologies, sodium-ion batteries rank first among various energy storage technologies, demonstrating the National Energy Administration and the National Development and Reform Commission's high regard for sodium-ion battery technology and their confidence in its future development. The outstanding advantages of sodium-ion batteries are resources and cost. According to the official website of Zhongke Haina, sodium and lithium are in the same main group and have similar physical and chemical properties.
The abundance of sodium resources in the earth's crust is 2.75%, which is much higher than the 0.0065% of lithium resources. Sodium resources are also widely distributed and found throughout the world, while about 75% of lithium resources are concentrated in the Americas. If the price of lithium carbonate is 150,000 yuan/ton and the price of sodium carbonate is 2,000 yuan/ton, the material cost of sodium-ion batteries is 30%-40% lower than that of lithium-ion batteries. As lithium prices remain at high levels for a long time, the price advantages of sodium-ion battery raw materials continue to be highlighted.
The disadvantages of sodium ions are low energy density and low cycle life.
The cycle life of sodium-ion batteries is more than 2,000 times, while that of lithium-ion batteries is more than 3,000 times. On the one hand, the Na+ radius of
is much larger than that of Li+. Repeated insertion/extraction of Na+ can easily lead to structural changes in the electrode after multiple cycles, thereby causing capacity attenuation.
On the other hand, as ions pass through the battery's disordered crystal structure , the misorientation of the crystal layer within a single particle will increase, and the specific atomic recombination P2-O2 during battery operation will phase change, ultimately destroying the battery's Ordered crystal structure, which directly leads to the low cycle life of sodium-ion batteries. The mass energy density of sodium-ion batteries is 100-150W·h/kg, which is lower than the 120-180W·h/kg of lithium-ion batteries.
According to the document "From Basic Research to Engineering Exploration" published by Rong Xiaohui in March 2020, the raw material cost of lithium batteries is 0.43 yuan/Wh, and the raw material cost of sodium-ion batteries is 0.29 yuan/Wh, which is 32.6% lower than the cost of lithium batteries. .
The average market price of lithium carbonate in March 2020 was 50,300 yuan/ton; the average market price of sodium carbonate was 1,505 yuan/ton.
On May 27, 2022, the price of lithium carbonate was 460,000 yuan/ton, and the corresponding lithium-ion battery raw material cost increased to 0.76 yuan/Wh; the average market price of sodium carbonate was 2,900 yuan/ton, and the price per ton only increased by nearly 1,400 yuan. Far smaller than the price increase of lithium carbonate.
Due to the rising prices of lithium-ion battery raw materials and the scarcity of lithium resources, sodium-ion batteries have excellent performance on the cost and resource sides. Sodium-ion batteries can replace lithium-ion batteries in specific application scenarios in the future. Taking into account my country's policy support for new energy storage, there is huge room for development in the future industrialization of sodium-ion batteries.
.2. It is estimated that the potential substitutable space of sodium-ion batteries in 2026 is 215.6GWh
According to our calculations, the potential substitutable market space of sodium-ion batteries in 2026 is expected to be 215.6GWh, which is close to the national power battery production in 2021 of 219.7GWh.
Assuming that the replacement ratio of sodium-ion batteries is 35% in 2026, the replacement scale of sodium-ion batteries is about 75.5GWh, and the corresponding output value can reach 36.2 billion yuan. The specific analysis is as follows:
(1) Electric bicycles
The current main applications of electric bicycles The ones are lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries.
In April 2019, the mandatory national standard " Electric Bicycle Safety Technical Specifications " stipulated that the vehicle mass of electric bicycles (including batteries) should not be higher than 55kg. Therefore, the penetration rate of lithium batteries is increasing year by year.
According to the "White Paper on the Development of China's Electric Two-Wheeled Vehicle Industry (2021)" released by research institutions EVTank, Ivey Economic Research Institute and China Battery Industry Research Institute, the output of China's lithium battery electric two-wheeled vehicles reached 11.36 million in 2020 vehicles, the overall penetration rate reached 23.5%, and the output increased by 84.7% year-on-year in 2019. It is expected that the market penetration rate will be close to 60% by 2025.
Compared with lead-acid batteries, sodium-ion batteries have obvious advantages in energy density and power density. At the same time, they are much better than lead-acid batteries in terms of energy conservation, environmental protection, volume and weight, and cycle life. The lead in lead-acid batteries pollutes the environment and causes certain harm to the human body.
Compared with lithium-ion batteries, as mentioned earlier, the advantage of sodium-ion batteries is cost.
The 48V/10Ah phosphate-based sodium-ion battery energy storage system independently developed by the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences can be used in electric bicycles. The 5Ah soft pack battery used in this system has a specific energy of 126.5Wh/kg, can be charged to 92% of the battery in 12 minutes, and can be cycled 2,000 times at 3C.
(2) A00 electric vehicle
According to the 2022 "Catalogue of Recommended Models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the energy density of the lithium iron phosphate batteries of the main A00-class electric vehicles currently on the market is between 110~130Wh/kg, and the sodium ion The energy density of the battery is between 120~160Wh/kg. In theory, sodium-ion batteries can replace lithium-ion batteries in the field of A00-class electric vehicles.
A00 class electric vehicles are cheap, so they are most sensitive to changes in raw material prices. For example, on February 14, 2022, the Euler brand stated that due to the sharp increase in raw material prices, Black Cat lost more than 10,000 yuan per unit, and Black Cat and White Cat stopped taking orders. If we continue to accept orders, the delivery of new orders will not be until the second half of 2022.
(3) UPS (IDC data center, 5G communication base station)
On July 14, 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Three-Year Action Plan for the Development of New Data Centers", which proposes to support the exploration and use of lithium batteries, hydrogen storage and flywheel energy storage. As a diversified energy storage and backup power device for data centers, we will strengthen the promotion and application of power battery echelon utilization products.
Currently, UPS power batteries are still mainly lead-acid. In the context of green data centers, lithium batteries have the characteristics of high energy density, long cycle life, high rate, and less pollution. They are expected to replace lead-acid batteries and become an important part of the UPS power supply system. component.
On the other hand, data centers also have high power and small footprint requirements for power supplies. The energy density and rate performance of sodium-ion batteries are between lithium batteries and lead-acid batteries. In theory, they can also become a substitute for lead-acid batteries. One of the technical routes.
In terms of 5G base station power supply applications, China Tower has stopped purchasing lead-acid batteries as early as 2018, and instead purchases cascade batteries. However, there are still safety issues with cascade batteries.
In June 2021, the National Energy Administration publicly solicited opinions on the "Management Specifications for New Energy Storage Projects (Interim) (Draft for Comment)": Before a key breakthrough in battery consistency management technology is achieved and the power battery performance monitoring and evaluation system is improved, in principle No new large-scale power battery cascade utilization energy storage projects are allowed. Compared with ladder batteries, sodium-ion batteries have similar costs but will be significantly safer. In theory, sodium-ion batteries are also suitable for use in 5G base station scenarios.
(4) Passenger cars
Considering that passenger cars are generally relatively large in size and do not have high requirements for energy density, you can sacrifice a little volume and put more batteries to achieve the same power level. On the other hand, considering that the operating routes of passenger cars such as buses are relatively certain, they can be recharged in time, and the requirements for battery life are not very high. According to the latest new energy bus parameters announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the energy density of the battery system is around 160Wh/kg, so we believe that theoretically sodium-ion batteries have the potential to replace lithium iron phosphate batteries in buses.
(5) Energy storage: User-side
User-side energy storage can implement peak shaving, valley filling, demand response and demand electricity fee management for traditional loads.
Take the lithium iron phosphate battery with high comprehensive performance in commercial applications as an example. Its cycle life is about 5,000 times. When used in a mode of running 1.2 times a day for 330 days a year, it needs to be replaced about once every 13 years; sodium ion battery Assuming that the cycle life of the battery is 3,000 times, and calculated based on the operation mode of 1.2 times per day, it needs to be replaced approximately every 8 years. In addition, assuming that the required equipment costs are the same, according to the official data of Polaris Energy Storage, the peak-to-peak price difference is calculated using the median value of 0.7 yuan/(kW·h).
Assuming the construction of a 10MW/10MW·h user-side energy storage power station, the initial investment cost of the lithium-ion battery energy storage power station is 15 million yuan, of which the battery cost project accounts for approximately 60%~70%. Due to the cost of sodium-ion batteries Lower, the initial investment cost of sodium-ion battery energy storage power station is lower than that of lithium-ion battery energy storage power station. The annual maintenance cost of
is 550,000 yuan. The replacement cost of lithium-ion batteries is 850 yuan/kw, and the replacement cost of a 10MW project is 8.5 million yuan. The cost of sodium-ion batteries is 40% lower than that of lithium-ion batteries, and the replacement cost is 5.1 million yuan. The IRR (internal rate of return) of lithium-ion battery energy storage is calculated to be 11.6%, and the IRR of sodium-ion battery energy storage is 16.5%. The low-cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries can make up for its disadvantages in cycle life and obtain higher Internal Rate of Return. The payback period for
lithium-ion batteries is 6.75 years, and the payback period for sodium-ion batteries is 4.86 years. The payback period for sodium-ion batteries is even shorter. From the above calculations, it can be seen that sodium-ion batteries are more economical than lithium-ion batteries in energy storage systems.
(6) Energy storage: power generation side/grid side
From the power generation side, it has become a trend for local policies to support centralized photovoltaic power generation and wind power synchronization with a certain scale of energy storage. Due to the mismatch between the development of new energy and the consumption capacity of the power system, "abandoning wind and light" was once a relatively prominent problem. Therefore, building a new power system with energy storage can effectively solve the consumption problem and improve the utilization rate of new energy generation. .
From the grid side, the investment and construction of energy storage projects can also effectively reduce or delay investment in grid equipment. The cost advantage of sodium-ion batteries can theoretically improve the economics of energy storage on the power generation side or the grid side.
We calculated the theoretical installed capacity of sodium-ion batteries based on the above potential application scenarios (electric bicycles, A00 electric vehicles, buses, UPS energy storage, power generation side, grid side, and power consumption side energy storage). The core assumptions include: According to WIND data, From January to August 2021, the domestic output of electric bicycles was 23.888 million units. We assume that the annualized domestic output of electric bicycles is 35.83 million units, and the CAGR from 2015 to 2021 is about 3%. Assuming that the electric bicycle charge capacity is 0.72KWH, after 2022 The growth rate of bicycle production is still 3%. It is expected that domestic electric bicycle production will be 41.54 million units in 2026, corresponding to a charge capacity of 29.9GWh;
According to data from the Passenger Association, domestic sales of A00-class new energy passenger vehicles in 2021 will be 898,000 units, accounting for 10% of the total. The proportion of new energy passenger vehicles is 27.2%.
According to the Everbright Securities Automobile Team’s estimate, domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 5-5.5 million units in 2022. Considering that more and more new car-making forces have achieved monthly delivery volumes exceeding 10,000, electric vehicles are gradually shifting to the era of “letting a hundred flowers bloom”.
We assume that domestic new energy passenger vehicle sales in 2022 will be 5.5 million units. In May 2022, the national new energy vehicle sales penetration rate has reached 24%. Taking into account the continuous advancement of domestic policies and the cost advantage of electric vehicles over fuel vehicles, assuming In 2025 and 2026, the domestic new energy vehicle penetration rate will reach 50% and 60% respectively, corresponding to domestic new energy vehicle sales of 12 million and 14.4 million vehicles.
Taking into account the trend of cars gradually developing towards mid-to-high-end, it is assumed that the penetration rate of domestic A00-class new energy vehicles will drop from 27% in 2022 to 20% in 2026.According to Zhu Yulong's article "Assessing the Trend of A00-Class Electric Vehicles in 2022", the electric charge of A00-class bicycles in 2021 is 21.7KWh. It is estimated that domestic sales of A00-class new energy vehicles in 2026 will be 2.88 million units, corresponding to battery demand of 62.4GWh; according to WIND data, Domestic new energy bus sales in 2021 will be 83,000 units, accounting for 16.5% of all domestic commercial vehicle sales. We assume that domestic commercial vehicle sales will grow at 2% starting in 2022. Considering the cost advantage of new energy commercial vehicles, they will boost their To increase the substitution of fuel vehicles, it is assumed that the penetration rate of domestic new energy buses increases from 18% in 2022 to 30% in 2026.
According to Zhu Yulong's article "A Brief Analysis of the Power Battery Pattern of New Energy Commercial Vehicles", pure electric buses will have a charge capacity of 184.1KWh in 2021.
predicts that domestic new energy bus sales will be 558,000 units in 2026, corresponding to battery demand of 30.8GWh; according to National Energy Administration data, domestic new photovoltaic grid-connected installed capacity will be 54.88GW in 2021. According to CPIA’s conservative forecast, domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity The capacity will rise from 75GW in 2022 to 95GW in 2026;
According to data from the National Energy Administration, 47.57GW of new domestic wind power grid-connected capacity will be installed in 2021. According to China Energy Network's forecast, 55GW of new domestic wind power installed capacity will be conservatively installed in 2022 If the industry growth rate after 2023 is predicted to be above 10% by reference to GWEC, the domestic newly installed wind power capacity is expected to reach 81GW in 2026, and the total newly installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power will reach 176GW.
Assuming that the distribution and storage ratio is 10% and the backup time is 2 hours, the power generation side energy storage capacity is expected to reach 35.1GWh in 2026. According to data from the "China Electric Power Industry Annual Development Report 2022" released by the China Electricity Council on July 6, 2022, the country's maximum electricity load will be 1.63 billion kilowatts by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 5.1% from 2021 to 2025. Referring to the March 10, 2021 Everbright Securities report "Energy storage, an emerging track under carbon neutrality, the trillion-dollar market is slowly opening", the proportion of frequency regulation demand increased from 2.4% in 2021 to 3.4% in 2026; energy storage The penetration rate of frequency regulation will increase from 16% in 2021 to 33% in 2026. Calculated based on the backup time of 0.5H, the domestic frequency regulation capacity is expected to be 9.6GWh in 2026;
According to data from the National Energy Administration, the cumulative installed wind power capacity nationwide by the end of 2021 was 328 million kilowatts; the country’s cumulative photovoltaic grid-connected capacity is 306GW.
Based on the calculation of the newly added installed capacity each year mentioned above, it is estimated that the cumulative installed capacity of wind power and cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the country in 2026 will be 664GW and 731GW respectively. It is assumed that the daily fluctuation rate is 35% and the allocation and storage time is 2 hours. According to the Everbright Securities report "Energy storage, an emerging track under carbon neutrality, the trillion-dollar market is slowly opening", the proportion of peak shaving capacity will increase from 0.44% in 2021 to 2.2% in 2026. It is expected that the domestic peak shaving capacity in 2026 21.48GWh;
According to data from the Huajing Industrial Research Institute, the newly installed capacity of domestic user-side battery energy storage in 2020 is 173MW. Referring to the global user-side energy storage growth rate from 2021 to 2026, it is 137%, 76%, 64%, 62%, 61%, 60%, refer to the March 10, 2021 Everbright Securities report "Energy Storage, an Emerging Track under Carbon Neutrality, the Trillion Market is Slowly Opening" to obtain the backup time of 4 hours. It is expected that the domestic user side in 2026 The newly installed capacity of energy storage is 19.8GWh; according to the "Communications Industry Statistical Bulletin" of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there will be 1.425 million 5G base stations nationwide in 2021, and more than 650,000 new 5G base stations will be built throughout the year.
Taking into account the continuous increase in 5G penetration rate, the business load and power consumption of a single base station will also gradually increase accordingly. According to the Forward-looking Industry Research Institute, it is expected that the number of new 5G base stations in my country will be 800,000, 900,000, and 900,000 in 2022-2026. 650,000, 450,000, and 300,000. It is estimated that the corresponding battery demand for 5G base stations in 2026 will be 4.6GWh;
According to CDCC's "2021 China Data Center Market Report", the total number of data center cabinets in China in 2021 will be 4.1506 million, and in 2017 -The CAGR of cabinet inventory in 2021 is 31.6%. Referring to the predictions in the "China IDC Industry Development Research Report 2021-2022" released by Kezhi Consulting, the IDC industry growth rate will still maintain a growth rate of more than 20% in the future. It is estimated that the domestic data center cabinet inventory will be 10.328 million in 2026. 1.721 million new data center cabinets were added, corresponding to an energy storage capacity of 1.99GWh.
Assume that sodium-ion batteries will not achieve large-scale industrialization until 2023. According to our calculations, the potential replaceable market space for sodium-ion batteries from 2023 to 2026 is 144.5GWh/162.5GWh/184.4GWh/215.6GWh . Taking into account the verification cycle of downstream users and the gradual improvement of market acceptance, we assume that the replacement ratio of sodium-ion batteries reaches 5%/15%/25%/35% respectively from 2023 to 2026. Then the domestic sodium-ion battery market in 2026 The replacement scale is approximately 75.5GWh.
According to CATL’s 2021 annual report data, the company achieved battery system sales of 133.41GWh, corresponding power battery system operating revenue of 91.49 billion yuan, and corresponding battery system selling price of 0.69 yuan/Wh. Assuming that the price of sodium-ion batteries after industrialization drops by 30% compared to lithium batteries, reaching 0.48 yuan/Wh, the corresponding output value of sodium-ion batteries in 2026 can reach 36.2 billion yuan.
The company cooperates closely with Zhongke Haina, and its anthracite has advantages as an anode material for sodium ion batteries. It is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of sodium ion market space and help the company's secondary growth.
.3, Global sodium-ion battery competition landscape
.3.1, Domestic and foreign sodium-ion battery layout
Globally, represented by domestic Zhongke Hainan, CATL, Nadium Innovation Energy, and foreign Faradion, Natron Energy, etc. Companies have taken the lead in exploring the commercialization of sodium-ion batteries, and most companies have achieved small-scale trial production.
.4. Difficulties in commercialization and expected time of commercialization
.4.1. Difficulties in commercialization of sodium-ion batteries
There are still some problems in the industrialization process of sodium-ion batteries that need to be further optimized:
.4.2. Commercialization of sodium-ion batteries Time point prediction
On May 10, 2022, CATL, the leader in the battery industry, stated on the interactive platform that the company will release a sodium-ion battery in 2021. Its single cell energy density is as high as 160Wh/kg. After charging for 15 minutes at room temperature, the power can reach It also has a discharge retention rate of more than 90% in a low temperature environment of -20%°C, and the system integration efficiency can reach more than 80%.
company is committed to promoting the industrialization of sodium-ion batteries in 2023. In an online sodium battery technology seminar held by the Tianmu Lake Advanced Energy Storage Technology Research Institute on February 28, 2022, researcher Hu Yongsheng mentioned that the sodium-ion battery industry chain is being laid out very quickly, and the entire industry chain can basically be built in 2023.
On March 25, 2022, Professor Tang Yougen of Central South University mentioned in "Sodium-ion Battery Materials and Full Battery Research and Development" that sodium ions are still in the early stages of commercialization. There is still some time left in terms of large-scale application, and it is expected that large-scale mature applications can be achieved in the next 3-5 years.
On April 19, 2022, Hunan Cube New Energy's sodium-ion battery launch conference was held. It is expected that Cube New Energy will start small batch production of sodium-ion soft pack batteries in June and start mass production in 2023.
, profit forecast Key assumptions:
(1) Price assumption:
According to the company's 2021 annual report, the price of the company's main coal varieties is 569.2 yuan/ton for washed coal; 919.8 yuan/ton for washed lump coal; 1076.2 yuan for washed fine coal. / ton; slime 277.2 yuan / ton. According to the previous analysis, the demand for active replenishment of power plants corresponding to the end of the coal "summer peak" is still strong. The current anthracite coal price is still higher than the same period last year. Q3 is the delayed release of part of the demand after the traditional peak season and the end of the epidemic. High coal prices are still Can be supported.
predicts that coal prices will still increase in 2022 based on 2021, assuming that the prices of coal, lump coal and pulverized coal at the end of 2022 will increase by 19%/31%/29% respectively compared with 2021.
The IEA mentioned in the "2022 World Energy Investment Report" that under the pressure of rising natural gas prices, many countries around the world plan to restart coal-fired power plants. In the next few years, global energy tension will also keep coal consumption levels high, and coal prices will also will be effectively supported.
We expect the company's coal prices to decline by 2% year-on-year in both 2023 and 2024.As a by-product, coal slime can also be used as boiler fuel, brick factory additives, chemical raw materials, cement plant admixtures, etc. after certain treatment. Considering its broad application scenarios, we assume that coal slime prices will increase by 10% year-on-year in 2022. Consider By the time we assume that prices of other coal types will begin to correct in 2023, we assume that coal slime prices will fall by 5% year-on-year in 2023 and 2024.
therefore makes the following predictions for the company's main product prices: the price of washed coal is expected to be 680 yuan/ton, 666.4 yuan/ton, and 653.1 yuan/ton in 2022-2024; the price of washed lump coal is expected to be 1,205 yuan/ton in 2022-2024, 1180.9 yuan/ton, 1157.3 yuan/ton; the estimated price of washed pulverized coal in 2022-2024 is 1388.3 yuan/ton, 1360.5 yuan/ton, 1333.3 yuan/ton. The price of coal slime is expected to be 305 yuan/ton, 289.7 yuan/ton, and 275.2 yuan/ton from 2022 to 2024.
(2) Sales volume assumption:
After the asset transfer of the company’s controlling shareholder, the company will no longer purchase coal from Huayang Group and its subsidiaries, and sales volume in 2021 will be lower than in 2020.
According to the company’s 2021 annual report, the company’s coal sales target for 2022 is 47 million tons. It is assumed that the company's Qiyuan and Boli coal mines will be put into production in the second half of 2023 and 2024 respectively.
Taking into account that the mid- to long-term supply and demand in the coal industry is still expected to be in a tight balance, it is assumed that the company's coal sales can reach 49.5 million tons and 53 million tons in 2023 and 2024.
In January 2022, the China Coal Industry Association and the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association jointly issued a proposal, mentioning that priority should be given to ensuring coal demand for power generation, heating and people's livelihood. Therefore, we expect that the company's coal sales in the future will still be mainly coal.
Referring to the company's product structure in 2020 and 2021, we assume that the company's future coal sales structure will be 85.7% fine coal, 6.9% lump coal, 3.4% pulverized coal, and 4.0% coal slime.
expects the sales volume of the company's main products to be as follows: expects the sales volume of washed coal from 2022 to 2024 to be 40.28/42.42/45.42 million tons.
washed lump coal: estimates that the sales volume of washed lump coal from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.24/3.42/3.66 million tons.
Washed pulverized coal: estimates that the sales volume of washed pulverized coal from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.60/168/1.8 million tons.
coal slime: expects coal slime sales from 2022 to 2024 to be 188/198/2.12 million tons.
According to the company’s 2022 first quarter report, the company’s comprehensive cost of coal is 482 yuan/ton, which is 102.7 yuan/ton higher than the comprehensive cost of coal for the whole year of 2021. We assume that the cost of each coal variety in 2022 will increase by 100 yuan/ton compared with 2021. . The cost per ton in 2023 and 2024 will decrease by 1.5% respectively based on the previous year.
Taking into account the impact of the National Development and Reform Commission's price limit on thermal coal in May 2022 as mentioned above, we assume that the increase in coal prices at the end of 2022 will be less than the increase in the cost of a single ton, and the gross profit margin of the finished coal business will decline. Coal gross profit margin is still rising.
company's other businesses include traditional businesses such as heating and electricity. It is assumed that the revenue and gross profit margin of other businesses are relatively stable overall.
obtained the company’s main business income and gross profit as follows:
Based on this, we estimate that the company’s operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 35.98, 37.08, and 38.81 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.3%, +3.0%, and +4.7%, attributed to the parent company Net profits were 5.59 billion yuan, 5.81 billion yuan, and 6.05 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 58.2%, 3.9%, and 4.1%. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 6.2X, 6.0X, and 5.8X respectively.
, Valuation .1, Relative Valuation
The company’s main products are coal products, electricity, and heat. Coal accounts for a high proportion of operating income. Comparable companies can choose Shaanxi Coal, Shanghai Energy, and Yankuang Energy, which are engaged in the coal business.
Shaanxi Coal Industry: The company's main business is coal mining, washing, processing, sales and production services. The main product is coal, which has the characteristics of low ash, low sulfur, low phosphorus and high calorific value. It is a high-quality power, Coal used in chemical industry and metallurgy.
Shanghai Energy: company is mainly engaged in coal production and trade, washing and processing, coal mine construction, pit head power generation, aluminum processing, railway transportation, machinery manufacturing, vocational and technical training and related engineering and technical services. The main types of coal are 1/3 coking coal, gas coal and fat coal, which are high-quality coking coal and thermal coal.
Yankuang Energy: is mainly engaged in coal production, washing and processing, coal sales and railway transportation, coal chemical industry, electric power and other businesses, and is a leader in the domestic coal industry.
company's PE from 2022 to 2024 is slightly lower than the average value of comparable companies. As the company layouts the new energy industry chain and builds projects in new energy fields such as photovoltaics + sodium-ion batteries + flywheel energy storage, we believe that the company's value is undervalued.
Regarding the sodium-ion battery part, considering that sodium-ion batteries have not yet been industrialized, we value the sodium-ion battery business by estimating its operating income and referring to the current PS of the lithium industry.
Huayang Co., Ltd. and Zhongke Haina will cooperate in 2022 through Hua Na Copper Energy (Huayang Co., Ltd. holds 49.26%), Hua Na Carbon Energy (Huayang Co., Ltd. holds 49.26%), Hua Na Core Energy (Huayang Co., Ltd. Holding 100% of the shares) has laid out 2,000 tons of sodium-ion battery positive and negative electrode materials and a 1GWh sodium-ion battery cell and PACK production line. In the future, the cell and Pack production line is planned to be increased to 10GWh; Zhongke Haina will also cooperate with China Three Gorges Energy, Three Gorges Capital and the Fuyang Municipal People's Government of Anhui Province have cooperated. The first phase of the 1GWh sodium battery production line will be put into production in 2022. In the future, all parties will jointly promote a 30GWh world-leading large-scale sodium ion mass production line.
Since the above-mentioned new production capacity has not yet been put into production, we assume that Hua Na core’s new production capacity will reach production in 2025, and the price of sodium-ion batteries is 0.48 yuan/Wh. Then the operating income of sodium batteries in 2025 is expected to be 4.80 billion yuan, as shown in the table 27 WACC 8.31% is used as the discount rate, which corresponds to a sodium battery operating income of 3.78 billion yuan in 2022. According to the unanimously expected operating income of WIND, a comparable company in the lithium industry in 2022, we refer to the battery PACK business PS as 4.4X. The sodium layout of Huayang Co., Ltd. The market value of the battery business is expected to reach 16.49 billion yuan.
.2. Absolute valuation
. Long-term growth rate: With the continuous implementation of the company's new energy industry layout and the expansion of coal production capacity, the long-term growth rate is 2%.
. β value selection: We use the β of Shenwan Industry Classification - Coking Coal Industry as an approximation of the company's unlevered β;
. Tax rate: We predict that the company's future tax policy will be relatively stable, combined with the company's actual tax rate in the past few years, Assume that the company's future tax rate is 25.79%.
According to the absolute valuation method, taking the FCFF±0.5% range as the valuation reference, the corresponding reasonable value range of the company's stock price is 19.92-24.99 yuan/share.
.3. Valuation conclusion
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.59 billion yuan, 5.81 billion yuan, and 6.05 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 58.2%, 3.9%, and 4.1%. The current stock price corresponds to PE respectively. For 6.2X, 6.0X, 5.8X.
combines the company's relative valuation and absolute valuation, considers the expansion of the company's main coal business, and plans for projects in new energy fields such as photovoltaics + sodium-ion batteries + flywheel energy storage. The company's performance is expected to continue to grow.
. Risk analysis Macroeconomic uncertainty risks. If the macroeconomic situation is weak, it may cause the demand for coal and electricity from downstream enterprises to weaken, which will in turn affect the performance of coal prices. Policy risks arising from the relaxation of approval for new coal production capacity. Relaxation of approvals for new coal production capacity may result in larger-than-expected expansion of coal production capacity.
The risk of falling coal prices. As the COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread, demand from downstream industries such as thermal power, steel, and chemicals is lower than expected, or there is a risk of a decline in coal sales prices due to further regulation by national policies.
The risk of a sharp decline in international energy prices. A sharp drop in international energy prices may lead to a drop in imported coal prices, which in turn will drive down domestic coal prices.
The future development of the new materials business is uncertain. The future income of 's sodium-ion battery business is uncertain. The birth of new energy storage technology may replace the demand for sodium-ion batteries, and the industrialization process may be later than expected. There is no clear timetable for the long-term production capacity of the sodium battery production line involved in the company, and there may be a risk that the production pace will be lower than expected, resulting in overvaluation.
The commissioning of coal mines under construction fell short of expectations. The progress of construction and market factors have caused uncertainty in the expected scale of production.
Coal safety accidents and other risks. Coal Company may be affected by safety production accidents, causing the company to suspend operations and production.
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