[ Shanghai Composite Index ]:
The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and rebounded. Although fluctuated within a narrow range of , the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3,400 points on the one hand. On the other hand, the trading volume reached 1.2 trillion, and the market transactions were very active. market needs to accumulate strength at the 3400 point line before launching a general attack on the annual line breakthrough. The annual line has moved down to around 3450. Mid-July is the time node for intensive announcements of semi-annual reports. Pre-increased performance or failure to meet expectations will have a driving or counterproductive force on the trend of stocks . Therefore, at present, the rotation and differentiation of sectors and individual stocks will be more obvious.
17 The 26-day moving average is almost parallel to the upward trend after the golden cross . The 60-day moving average has raised its head, and the midline trend signal is clear. The 100-day line is flat, but the positions of the half-year line and the annual line are moving downward, and the large-level moving averages are converging. In the future, when the 17- and 26-day moving averages break through the half-year line, it will be the day when the index breaks through the annual line. As for whether you want to sing in July Those who are short on the market can continue to rest just like those who are short on 3300 points. Sideways trading is for better upside, not adjustment. This must be made clear. 3300 is the breakthrough of big finance. It breaks through the annual line after sideways consolidation. It remains to be seen whether big finance will make another effort.
[Hot Sectors]: The semi-annual report is coming, and sector rotation seems disorderly but is actually proceeding in an orderly manner
Last week, we have been emphasizing that sector rotation and sector differentiation cannot lock in the target and thematic direction of operations. In fact, stock speculation is It is an expectation. The stock selection is based on the theme direction. The position of and will depend on the fundamentals (whether the company has the ability to make money). If you determine these three points, you will not be tempted to spend money indiscriminately, but you will be able to deal with it calmly. For example, the stock market has been emphasizing the main line of the new energy industry chain since its launch. Institutions in this sector hot money have repeatedly hyped it, but it is not completely consistent every time. For example, the main line in the early stage is new energy vehicles and batteries , this is the most downstream end product category, and the end product market can be intuitively felt and participated by consumers and investors. However, it is difficult to withstand the test of the semi-annual report. Once the semi-annual report comes out, the market will come to an end. . After following the transaction, I found that each stock has risen very high. If I enter, there is a high probability that I will go to to support .
However, when tracking the inflow of the main funds in the sector, we found that the main funds are still in the concept of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, and the inflow is still ranked first, indicating that the main line market is still continuing, but the rise and fall of individual stocks in the main line market have occurred. Differentiation, from the original downstream products of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, to upstream raw materials, because the price of raw materials has remained high and continues to rise, but the stock price has not improved, the performance of these material suppliers has continued to rise in price Driven by them, they either turned around losses or saw a surge in performance, but the performance of the secondary market was not as bright as their profitability. Therefore, at the time when secondary reports were about to be intensively announced, the mainline market was quietly switching.
Through seat tracking, we can see that the new energy industry chain has been the most hyped sector recently, including new energy vehicles, parts, photovoltaic , lithium batteries, complete vehicles, etc., in addition to the military industry in the entire A-share market In addition, the top 11 are all occupied by new energy sources that are frequently hyped by institutional seats. In terms of frequency, the frequency of hype for parts and components is far different from that of complete vehicles.
[Can the "Second Junior Brother" ride the wind and waves]
One of the sectors that changed today is the concept of pig breeding. In fact, the launch of this sector was already expected. This is related to the focus of the people's livelihood vegetable basket. In the product prices have continued to rise. It has been more than a month. Regarding this point, the common people who go to the market every day have the most profound feelings. When it comes to the secondary market, they know that the increase in meat prices is good for business operations. When it comes to the stock price, it is going to rise. As for when? I don’t know if it will rise, but we have already emphasized the market opportunities of the wine and meat sector last week (please refer back to last week’s article).
Today's sector has the highest increase and the second is the second junior brother
All of them have just started from the bottom, the increase is not big, completely in line with the bottom + performance + low valuation
[Conclusion]: The second junior brother wants to ride the wind and waves, will you choose? ?
