In recent years, affected by factors such as the economic environment and repeated epidemics in many places, the real estate industry and real estate market have experienced unprecedented challenges, and real estate investment and sales have declined significantly. At present, the external environment is still severe and complex, and the downward pressure on the economy remains Largely, at the policy level, real estate is not used as a short-term means of stimulating the economy. The city continues to implement its main responsibility and promote and maintain the overall stability of the real estate market. All localities have fully implemented city-specific policies. In the first half of the year, local governments optimized policies nearly 500 times, setting a record high for the same period in history. The industry policy environment has entered a loosening cycle.
As the impact of the epidemic gradually weakens and the effects of policies continue to appear, the sales area in key cities has increased month-on-month since May, the market bottom has rebounded, and real estate has also shown a rebound trend. However, with the support of so many favorable policies, it has only improved but has not achieved the expected results. Currently, real estate is mainly facing two major problems: short-term risks and long-term mechanisms: in the short term, individual real estate companies are exposed to risks, and relevant departments are properly handling and resolving them in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law; in the long term, the main problem facing my country's real estate market is supply and demand. Structural imbalance. Therefore, the virtuous cycle and healthy development of real estate still require a certain amount of time and space.
The real estate industry has significant ultra-long cyclical characteristics. The industry's high leverage, high debt, high turnover and high-profit development model have affected economic development and the stability of the financial market, which has had a serious impact. Therefore, the main goal of real estate regulation policies is to maintain the steady development of the industry. This year’s Central Economic Work Conference real estate-related content also included terms such as “expected guidance”, “virtuous cycle” and “exploring new development models” for the first time. In future real estate policies, there will be more policies to support the healthy development of real estate to prevent financial risks. Financial policies that were too tight in the early stage will lead to structural adjustments. On the one hand, they will moderately relax controls on the financing of real estate companies, and on the other hand, they will improve the credit environment for home purchases.
Real estate is related to hundreds of upstream and downstream industries. Now, because the financial industry has imposed loan withdrawals and restrictions on real estate, it has directly led to the depletion of cash flow of real estate development companies. Developers have no money, and the related industry chains cannot get money. The real estate industry The chain falls into an infinite loop. For example, bank credit support is not strong, which has led to a rapid cooling of the market. This year, many cities have seen new home transactions decline for six consecutive months. This has also given rise to operating risks and debt risks for real estate companies, resulting in low real estate operation efficiency. Real estate risks have increased significantly. Generally speaking, the current real estate industry has not returned to a normal state in terms of investment and sales.
The current real estate market is indeed trapped in contradictions and embarrassments that make it difficult to achieve a virtuous cycle. Many people are speculating between whether the real estate market will be a "hard landing" or a "soft landing." The advantage of a "hard landing" in the real estate market is that the impact is immediate and often short-lived. The expected goal can be achieved within a short period of time, but it has a serious impact on the real economy and usually has major side effects. "Soft landing" is to use a continuous policy combination to reduce the inflation rate relatively smoothly over a relatively long period of time. The advantage is that it can make a smooth transition and is less sacrificial. The disadvantage is that it takes a long time and is affected by other variables. Larger, may not achieve the desired effect.
If the real estate market makes a hard landing, it will inevitably adopt a strong monetary policy to lower the inflation rate to normal levels in a short period of time by sacrificing more national income. The most direct thing that will happen is that the real estate market bubble bursts, which will have a negative impact on the overall economic development of the country. It caused a huge impact. When young people fall into the so-called low-desire society, problems such as aging and low birthrate will come, which will all be related to the hard landing of the real estate industry. It is conceivable what will happen to the entire country's economy. It can be said that it cannot bear its weight and will inevitably seriously affect social stability and development. At present, various policies are being introduced to pull up the rapidly declining real estate market and avoid hard work. Just landing.
The recent rebound in the real estate market is due to the release of pent-up demand in the early stage due to the epidemic, as well as the support of various favorable policies. However, overall, there is a foundation for the real estate market to maintain overall stability. The main tone of "promoting the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry" will not change. The fundamental solution to real estate problems still needs to solve strategic and institutional problems. On the one hand, we must promote the construction of affordable housing and support the commercial housing market to better meet the needs of the real estate industry. The reasonable housing needs of homebuyers. On the other hand, we need to solve structural problems such as overcapacity and inventory backlog. Structural reforms are related to enterprise reforms, economic cycles, etc.
Some people predict that there will also be structural adjustments in real estate financial policies in the future. On the one hand, the control over the financing of real estate companies will be moderately relaxed, and real estate development loans, merger and acquisition loans, etc. will be reasonably issued to alleviate the debt pressure of real estate companies; on the other hand, the credit environment for home purchases will be improved, focusing on meeting the demand for first homes and improved housing, and there may be targeted support policies. , the real estate market will gradually recover without a hard landing, and will continue to play a "stabilizer" role in economic operations. However, all development needs to be based on the exchange of time and space. Sometimes, it is not a bad idea to start blindly with the real estate industry and the real estate market itself, instead of working hard to increase per capita income.
