1 There is no pressure, it is another day of big rise. Everyone should be relatively clear about the strategy of the group leader. Generally speaking, holding stocks is waiting for a rise. It is broken down into three response measures: high, medium and low. I won’t be too long-w

1

There is no pressure, it is another day of big gains

Everyone should be clear about the strategy of the leader. Generally speaking, holding stocks is waiting to rise, and it is broken down into three response measures of high, medium and low. I won’t be too long-winded. Everyone wants to Match according to the given strategies.

On the positive side, The Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council released the ninth version of the new coronavirus prevention and control plan, adjusting the isolation and control time of close contacts and immigrants from "14+7" to "7+3", further shortening the isolation and control time. , conducive to the recovery of society and life, and conducive to economic activities, industrial development, consumption and investment. In addition, Beijing Capital’s net purchases were 4.6 billion.

After the launch of Changan Automobile 's blockbuster new energy vehicle, it was attracted by hot money . It has been so popular recently, so I have to be more vigilant. The group leader is optimistic about the company he is following for a long time and is averse to being disrupted by hot money. When hot money is raised like this, there is a risk of short-term overheating. After the money is raised, the money will be withdrawn, leaving a lot of chicken feathers behind.

Therefore, is recommended to be more cautious and switch between high and low. The low-level ambush strategy must be implemented. Thinking about semiconductor + CXO from the perspective of cost performance, they are both very cost-effective positions. From a horizontal comparison, the GEM index has returned to the position at the end of February, the chip ETF is still at the position at the end of March, and the CXO is still at the position in mid-April.

yesterday analyzed the relative valuation of leading CXO companies, and today we will look at the valuation of leading chip companies. Northern Huachuang currently has 10-11ps at the bottom range of 9-18ps in the past five years. Weir 25PE (peg1), GigaDevice 28pe (peg1), Shengbang 55PE (peg1.5) are all in The bottom range of valuation.

Of course, there are reasons why the stock price is weak, and there are suppressive factors behind it. The suppression behind the chip is that downstream demand is relatively weak. is mainly caused by the sales of consumer electronics, especially mobile phones, falling short of expectations for four consecutive quarters. Despite this, chips are not required to go out of the big market, and rebounding at the current position of excellent cost performance is an optional strategy.

For the military industry, photovoltaic , the overall strategy of new energy is to hold shares and wait for the rise. Among them, the core leader of photovoltaic inverter has risen by more than 40% in the past 10 trading days. The head of today reminded the short-term risks, and components are still It is recommended that cherish the companies whose photovoltaics are still at a low level, don't be impatient, don't complain, and wait.

Military industry follows the three shared strategies, OEM + big leader + look high and do low, just choose 1-2 to match. The logic of IGBT is stronger than that of ordinary chip stocks. The leader of the group singled it out and talked about it. The strategy remains unchanged. It is better to continue to hold shares or buy lows. Especially if it falls, don't panic. Instead, get excited.

The main force has been really bad recently. For example, before the photovoltaic took off, it was killed for two days in a row, especially the heavy aircraft. Yesterday, the IGBT Era Electric was also killed by 6%. Today, it has risen by 10%. It’s so bad that it will test the confidence and patience of investors.

is back in the market and is still very strong. GEM fell 2% during the session and closed in the red, indicating that the market's acceptance is OK. The market is very strong, don't get off easily, just adjust your strategy to deal with it.

2

Photovoltaic technology: HJT and TOPCON

First of all, this is a purely industry discussion, because the head of the relevant leading company said from the beginning of May that so far Maiwei shares have hit a record high of more than 50%, and Jinchen shares have oversold. The rebound increased by more than 90%.

Technology is the eternal theme of the industry: technological progress, product innovation, cost reduction, and demand explosion.The last round of technological progress in photovoltaics was the replacement of polycrystalline by monocrystalline silicon wafers led by Longi Co., Ltd. . This was an important technological route change. The results: (1) Longi became the leader in the silicon wafer industry and enjoyed In the last round of technology dividend (2), the core of technology cost reduction, component prices dropped from 4.5 yuan to 1.8 yuan, a drop of 60%.

The battlefield that dominates the progress of photovoltaic technology now and in the future is battery technology. The original technology perc is close to the theoretical limit. The three technologies that can be chosen in the future are topcon, hjt and XBC.

Topcon is modified by adding 50-80 million new equipment to the original perc production line. The advantages are lower cost and faster mass production. This year JinkoSolar will take the lead in mass production of 16GW and is expected to ship 10GW. Another 16GW is expected to be mass produced next year. JA Solar Technology will also have 6.3GW in mass production in the second half of the year. The disadvantage of is that the process flow reaches 12-14 steps, and it takes a long time to adjust to achieve a higher yield.

HJT is characterized by brand-new technology, brand-new equipment, and higher efficiency. The investment amount of a single GW of currently reaches the range of 350-450 million, which is double the current perc (200 million), and the cost is relatively high. The advantage of

is that the process flow only requires 4 steps. This is also the preferred direction for many new photovoltaic investors, including Anhui Huasheng, which mainly promotes HJT. However, it should be noted that HJT and topcon are not alternatives to each other. They will coexist with each other in the next 3-5 years and join forces to replace perc.

There have been many catalysts for HJT recently, including King Kong Glass ’s unexpected expansion of 4.8GW, and Anhui Huasheng’s higher-than-expected conversion efficiency, which has stimulated the market to explode. This is just like the unexpected data of inverter two weeks ago. There is a big trend coming, which makes sense. Anhui Huasheng exceeded expectations:

(1) production progress exceeded expectations. The market had previously expected that Huasheng Phase 3 would be put into operation at 4.8GW, but it actually announced that it was under construction at 7.5GW;

(2) costs exceeded expectations, and non-silicon costs have decreased by 0.14 since the beginning of the year. Yuan/w, the current non-silicon cost is less than 0.2 yuan/w higher than PERC, and manufacturing-side profits will be achieved in Q3-Q4. By the end of the year, non-silicon is less than 0.1 yuan higher than PERC, and the cost performance of the component side will be the same.

Maiwei shares’ progress also exceeded expectations:

(1) orders exceeded expectations. The company’s HJT orders in the first half of the year have reached 6GW (with the scale of Huasheng Phase III 7.5gw exceeding expectations, plus King Kong, Risheng, China Resources in the second half of the year and other tenders, it is expected that the annual HJT order is expected to exceed 20GW);

(2) cost reduction exceeds expectations, silver-clad copper can see 12mg/w in the first half of next year, silver accounts for 30%, silver paste cost is less than 0.03 Yuan/w, the progress exceeded expectations.

For the HJT leader and team members, they focus on watching the shares of Water Seller Maiwei. It is also a leading company that has been tracked for a long time in the live broadcast room. The HJT leader has also made a detailed video dismantling. Interested students can go there on their own. study. The characteristic of hi's research and reporting team is to follow a good company for a long time, get familiar with it, make it a good company that you are familiar with, and then make strategies.

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