The consumer industry has turned around and started a new round of bull market. Recently, consumption has rebounded by 20% from the bottom, entering a technical bull market. The key factor that can support the strength of the consumer industry is the continued strength of the cou

The consumer industry has turned around and started a new round of bull market. Recently, consumption has rebounded by 20% from the bottom and entered a technical bull market. The key factor that can support the strength of the consumer industry is the continued strength of the country's internal circulation and the stimulation of local policies. Future strategic needs include the post-epidemic period. Of course, the most important thing is that the decline has been for a long time, and the valuation is at a historically reasonably low stage. During this period, as long as stocks can stabilize, future performance recovery may usher in a double-click opportunity.

There are also some cycles in the consumer industry, but the cycles are much smaller, but the correction in 2021-2022 is not small. It is basically caused by the decline in performance and the return of valuation. Now the valuation is basically at the historical bottom area, and performance improvement is expected Gradually improving, there is a new upward cycle.

According to historical rules, the consumer industry usually corrects for about a year and a half before a bull market starts. However, this round of consumer industry has started to adjust since the fourth quarter of 2020. It has now been close to a year and a half and has basically reached the zero boundary of the industry. Point, because the consumer industry is not like the bulk commodity cycle, the supply and demand relationship changes greatly, and it usually takes several years before a new supply and demand change occurs. Consumption is basically relatively stable and maintains appropriate growth. The process of increasing industry concentration. The entire trend will ease a lot.

Due to the huge space of the industry itself, which is basically characterized by high turnover, strong brand, and high channels, it determines that the overall development of the industry will not be so fast, but it is really a slow or fast industry, which will not cause changes in stock prices. For high fluctuations caused by high growth like new energy, the doubling space of the new energy industry may be achieved in two months, while it may take about half a year for the consumer industry. If some growth is added, the growth will be faster, but the long-term growth stability is better. Many, for example, many bullish stocks with multiple multiples come from the consumer industry. The main reason is that the relative cycle duration is long and the space is not small at all. This is also the reason why large institutions like it.

The first is the liquor industry. The leading companies in this industry are still growing steadily, the second and third tiers maintain reasonable growth, and valuations are also within a reasonable range. There is a deviation between the decline in consumer demand due to the epidemic and capital growth, which has led to a renewed upward trend in prices.

Next is the tourism consumption and catering industry, which includes tourist hotels and duty-free shops that have been in shock for a long time in the past. Catering and tourism were the industries that were hardest hit in the past. However, the market value of related listed companies did not further adjust amid losses. Instead, the bottom continued to increase. Very Obviously, capital is full of confidence in liberalizing growth in the future. Once suppressed consumer demand breaks out, there may be double growth. Now may be a better time. The duty-free industry is relatively more certain. First, the added value of tourism consumption has a higher tax-free content and greater flexibility. , the airport has recovered and the competitive landscape is relatively better.

In the condiment industry, as the long two-year downturn is coming to an end, the time is close to the past start-up period. In addition, the price of raw materials has fallen, leading to an increase in profits. Afterwards, the recovery of catering has brought about an increase. New product development and promotion can constitute With continued growth, profits are likely to gradually improve in the future, causing the market to begin to give higher imagination.

Finally, frozen food, dairy products, prepared dishes, etc., will follow the rise of the consumer industry during the period of reasonable prices, and will also benefit from the decline in raw materials. Due to the limited increment caused by the post-epidemic, prepared dishes are a limited substitute and truly After the liberalization of catering, the demand for frozen food may be affected to a certain extent, such as in 2021.

Looking at it comprehensively, the long-term layout of the consumer industry at this stage is cost-effective, and the certainty of growth in liquor, tourism catering, and condiments is relatively high.

It’s not easy to be original. Remember to like and follow after reading this. The above is only my personal opinion. Reasonable exchanges are welcome!