May economic data was better than expected, and major indicators were growing.
Ye Qing said that overall, May economic data was better than expected. The main indicators are showing positive growth.
html In May, although the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was still negative, the decline narrowed from -11.1% in April to -6.7% year-on-year. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 17,168.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%.According to National Bureau of Statistics official website.
shows that in May, China's economy gradually overcame the negative impact of the epidemic, with major indicators improving marginally and the economy showing a recovery momentum.
Looking at industrial data, the added value of the national industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.7% year-on-year in May, while it fell by 2.9% in April; it increased by 5.61% month-on-month. Stopped falling and rebounded.
According to the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics.
html From January to May, the added value of industries above designated size nationwide increased by 3.3% year-on-year. The main reason is to ensure the flow of goods and smooth roads while fighting the epidemic.In the automotive field, which everyone is more concerned about, there were 500,000 new energy vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 108.3%. Compared with April, daily automobile production in May increased significantly, from 43,000 to 64,000 vehicles.
According to the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics.
Recently, the Passenger Car Association released sales data of automobile companies in May. Looking at the overall performance of the automobile market in May, passenger car sales reached 1.354 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% and a month-on-month increase of 29.7%. The epidemic has gradually stabilized, and since late May, the country has successively introduced a series of policies and measures to promote consumption. The most prominent one is that the vehicle purchase tax will be halved for cars with a displacement of 2.0 and a price of less than 300,000 yuan, which is very promising. attraction. There are many customers in the 4S store. In the past, only those with 1.6 displacement could enjoy this policy. Local governments also spent real money to push car companies back to normal, which greatly invigorated the car market.
html On June 9, staff from Longquan Street, Wuxing District, Huzhou City were invited to introduce in detail the policies related to employment and entrepreneurship to the 2022 graduates of Huzhou Normal University and answer their questions. Xinhua News Agency reported that as the epidemic is brought under control, the unemployment rate will further decline. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate in the survey of people aged 16-24 in May was 18.4%. Compared with April, it increased by 0.2 percentage points, further reaching a new high since this data was collected. Ye Qing analyzed that according to historical data, the youth unemployment rate will experience a wave of increase from May to August every year, with July to August being the highest point of the year. When college students graduate in July and August, those graduates who have not yet found a job and continue to search for jobs will be included in the unemployed group, thus temporarily pushing up the youth unemployment rate. This year, the number of college graduates in our country has reached 10.76 million. The concentration of college graduates entering the labor market may further increase employment pressure.
But he also said that the situation improved in May, with the national urban survey unemployment rate being 5.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. After the epidemic is controlled, new jobs will appear. This shows that the epidemic has a relatively large impact on the employment of young people. As the epidemic is brought under control, the unemployment rate will fall further. Solve the problem of employment difficulties by cracking recruitment difficulties. The state's policy to protect market entities is to stabilize employment.
The development investment data of real estate companies began to turn around.
In terms of real estate, from January to May, real estate development investment fell by 4.0%. The sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 507.38 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%; the sales volume of commercial housing was 4.8337 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.5%.
According to the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics.
Ye Qing said that this shows that the national real estate market is still at the bottom stage.Commercial housing sales and sales area both fell sharply year-on-year, which directly led to increased financial pressure on real estate companies, which affected the data on land acquisition and new construction starts. The national real estate development investment data continued to fall, and even affected the price of steel.
However, from a month-on-month perspective, investment in real estate development was 1.298 billion yuan in May, while in April this figure was 1.1389 billion yuan, an increase of 14%. With the help of a series of financial policies, the development investment data of real estate companies began to turn around.
html In May, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was approximately 110 million square meters, and sales were approximately 1.05 trillion yuan. Although they fell by 31.8% and 37.7% year-on-year respectively, they were the lowest market values in the past five years. However, with real estate control policies loosened in various places and mortgage interest rates continuing to fall, the year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales data in May was slightly narrower than in April. In May, the sales area of commercial housing and commercial residential buildings nationwide increased by 25.8% and 23.8% respectively from the previous month; sales increased by 29.7% and 26.4% respectively from the previous month.shows that since March this year, the new real estate policies in various places have begun to take effect. Especially after policies were proposed at the end of April to meet the demand for improvement, the month-on-month figures for real estate in May increased significantly. According to statistics from the 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, as of May 31, a total of nearly 300 policies have been issued in various places this year, especially 147 times in May, which was 2.4 times that in April.
html Since June, local policy support has still been strengthened, and policies such as financing support and risk relief for real estate companies have also been further implemented. It is expected that the effects of policies on both ends of supply and demand will continue to be released in the later period, which will continue to benefit market sales and investment. Sales and investment in a single month in June are expected to continue to improve month-on-month.The real estate industry chain is long and has a great impact on related industries. As the market gradually stabilizes, it is believed that the impact on economic stability will gradually appear in the second half of the year.
html On June 13, the launch ceremony of the 2022 "Buy Hubei" consumer coupon issuance activity was held. This move aims to stimulate market vitality and release consumption potential. Xinhua News Agency reported that the total retail sales of consumer goods in June is expected to turn from negative to positive
What is the expected economic trend in the next stage? Ye Qing said that with the epidemic under effective control, the economy is expected to return to a reasonable range in June and the second half of the year. We should pay attention to several aspects: First, strive to ensure a continuous logistics chain and not affect the normal progress of production. The second is to learn from the lessons of last year’s power rationing and increase coal re-loans, subsidies, special bonds, etc. However, the price of coal has now risen, which is a signal. The third is to expand consumption under the premise of controlling the epidemic and change the situation of total retail sales of consumer goods for three consecutive months of negative growth. This is a top priority for governments at all levels.
At the beginning of this year, a report by the Chinese Academy of Sciences predicted that the added value of the primary industry will grow by 3.1% in 2022, the secondary industry will grow by 4.5%, and the tertiary industry will grow by 6.5%. Consumption, investment and net exports contributed 3.9, 0.9 and 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth respectively. Consumption cannot stop.
It can currently be seen that the video conference on stabilizing the economy on the afternoon of May 25 and the introduction of 33 hard measures by the State Council on the 31st will help bring the economy back on track in June, thereby ensuring positive growth in the second quarter.
Generally speaking, Ye Qing said that in June, as long as the industry expands its results and continues to grow positively, the total retail sales of consumer goods can turn from negative to positive, and the real estate market further picks up, there should be no problem with positive growth in the second quarter.
Interview and writing: Nandu reporter Mo Qianru from Beijing
