admits that ignorance is the beginning of wisdom.
Has everyone's stock fund returns dropped back to before liberation? Did you choose to lie flat in the face of the plunge? I thought to myself, "As long as I don't sell it, it's not a loss." Coincidentally, I recently read a professional investment and financial management book "Wealth is the Realization of Cognition". The author is Shu Taifeng, a partner of Chongyang Investment. He wrote in the book: "Many non-professional investment friends may They are all going through the five stages of trading stocks like this:
In the first stage, I bought stocks in a hot market atmosphere. At the beginning, the stock price rose every day with the market . You are very happy and often invite friends to dinner
The good times are not long in the second stage. The stock price has fallen from the high point, and the price of the stock you bought has also fallen. At this time, you are still full of confidence, thinking that this is just a temporary correction, and the stock price will definitely rise back and make a new New high
The third stage backfired. One day, the stock price finally fell below your cost price. You still do not believe in evil, and you insist on it, but your confidence is not so firm at this time.
Fourth At this stage, the market sentiment turns colder, and no one even talks about stocks anymore. The stocks you bought also fell to a new bottom, which may be 50% or more lower than the price you bought. At this time, you finally got discouraged and gave up Resist, but you didn't cut the meat , just let the stock price rain and wind blow away, and never look at the stock account again. At the same time, I still hold a fluke hope in my heart - keep the clouds open and see the moon, as long as No sale, as long as I wait, there is always hope
The reality of the fifth stage is more cruel than imagined, and this may be 3 years, 5 years, or even 10 years, 8 years.Finally admitted the failure of the investment in my heart. Or when you desperately need money, you have to cut the meat out"
You must have heard Buffett 's famous saying: " I am fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. ", maybe you, like me, once sighed because of a sentence: " a person can never make money beyond cognition ", these two sentences are actually the same thing . Buffett is talking about human nature, and the last sentence is about cognition. And the so-called "cognitive upgrade" is actually just understanding the weaknesses of human nature and expanding the scope of consciousness . Because of this, When Shu Taifeng named the book's preface, he used the title "Wealth is the realization of cognition, bankruptcy is the fall of cognition", and the book has 12 chapters, all about cognition, such as :
- Use "self-knowledge" to crack "overconfidence"
- Use "rational self-discipline" to crack "greed and jealousy"
- Use "long-termism" to crack "eager for success"
- cracks the " endowment effect" with "margin of safety"
- ..........
In the book "Wealth is the realization of cognition",The author not only uses countless economic cases to explain 12 kinds of human cognitive misunderstandings and coping methods, but each chapter also has a fictional "Dialogue between Buffett and Lao Tzu". The contents of the Tao Te Ching correspond one by one, which is refreshing and at the same time makes people feel more emotional: the great roads are connected. The more content you come into contact with and the broader your cognition, the more you realize this—the underlying logic of any discipline is the same. However, I still believe that many people will feel that whether it is Buffett or Lao Tzu, it is too far from our actual life, and we are just a group of ordinary ordinary people. But the other pole corresponding to it is: almost everyone wants to make money and has the desire to become "rich". This phenomenon once again reflects the contradiction and complexity of human nature : Everyone wants to make money, but there are very few people who are really willing to spend time and energy to learn the knowledge and way of thinking about making money. From this, I think of a four-stage diagram of human cognition that Cheetah Mobile CEO Fu Sheng once transformed. In this picture, he divides people into 4 categories according to their cognitive levels_ span7span
- 95% of people are in the first stage: don't know they don't know
- 4% of people are in the second stage: know they don't know
- 0.9% are in the third stage: know they know (Buffett and Munger is in this stage)
- 0.1% are in the fourth stage: do not know they know (I should In this range)
If the above four stages are a bit "wound",Or it can be roughly understood in a simpler way like "beautiful and ugly":
- 95% of people are in the first stage: they don't know they are ugly (feel pretty good about themselves)
- 4 % of the people are in the second stage: know they are ugly (self-knowledge)
- 0.9% of the people are in the third stage: know they are beautiful (clear their strengths and avoid weaknesses in dressing)
- 0.1% of people are in the fourth stage: they are shocked but they don't know they are beautiful (the most rare state in the world)
According to this picture, 95% of people are mentally "uncivilized" "People who do things, think that they rely on rational analysis and judgment, but in fact they are just human instincts , so they will continue to fall into the "weakness of human nature" and become a Leeks in the market.
In recent years, a group of intellectuals represented by Luo Fat has gradually opened up the cognitive pattern of many people, although now there are many people who "think they understand" comments Luo Fat and others. It's just a group of intellectuals who sell anxiety, but I think most people who say this kind of thing have not lived beyond the 95% range, because people who have truly achieved cognitive iteration have no time to complain or complain , and there will be no sense of superiority of "everyone is drunk and I am alone", but constantly expands their cognitive scope. In the process, I feel more and more ignorance Pride and Prejudice more and more dehumanized. It is precisely because of this that Lao Tzu said, “Those who know others are wise, and those who know themselves are wise”—establishing a clear self-awareness is the root of solving cognitive defects such as overconfidence. In other words, acknowledging ignorance is the beginning of wisdom .
Investment guru Howard Marks once said this: The biggest investment mistakes do not come from informational or analytical factors, but from psychological factors . He lists the 7 psychological factors that most affect investing: greed, fear, self-deception, conformity, jealousy, ego, compromise . Perhaps it is precisely because the "psychological" factor is so important that psychology can intersect with multiple disciplines. For example, the well-known 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics winner Daniel Kahneman's classic book "Thinking, " Fast and Slow is the best combination of economics and psychology. In addition, psychology and sociality are more closely related, such as conformity and jealousy mentioned by Howard Marks, which are closely related to social psychology.
[ written at the end ]
Not even an economist can do it all, and it is impossible to predict, but expands the scope of cognition and iterates the cognitive level, but it can make a person live more calmly and transparently, and can break away from the constraints of "instinct" , and thus go higher and farther, just like The scenery you see on the 160th floor of the Burj Khalifa is definitely different from what you see from your own balcony .
I am "Dream Tang Tang", a psychologist specializing in sharing dry goods. Welcome your likes, favorites and attention. If you have any questions, please send a private message in the background.
All encounters are due to the same frequency.
