Affected by the rebound of the epidemic and heavy rainfall, the price of pork fell in August at the same time that the price of vegetables and eggs rose, which became the main factor driving consumer prices.
On September 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Industrial Producer Price Index) data for August, showing that the CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year in August, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in July. After a lapse of three months, it fell to below 1% again; PPI rose 9.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from July, setting a new high since September 2008.
The consumption peak season is approaching. Experts said that overall, terminal prices have basically remained stable. It is expected that the subsequent PPI will remain at a high probability. For bulk commodities, the policy of ensuring supply and price stability should be adhered to, and reserves should be increased. Great supervision and optimized policies.
Pork prices cut, and vegetables and eggs fly
Regarding the August CPI data, Wang Jingwen, a senior researcher at Pangu think tank, said that food prices have changed from a 0.4% drop to a 0.8% increase, which is the first month-on-month increase since March. In food, pork prices fell 1.4% month-on-month, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, and have been narrowing for two consecutive months. After the country continues to increase its purchasing and storage efforts, pork prices are bottoming out. Affected by the spread of epidemics in many places, heavy rainfall and high temperature weather, the prices of fresh vegetables and eggs rose by 8.6% and 8.4% respectively, an increase of 7.3 and 7.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month, both of which were the highest month-on-month increase since February.
Aunt Wang, who lives in Chaoyang District, Beijing, has a deep understanding of the price changes of vegetables and meat. She told a reporter from Beijing Business Daily that in the past to buy pork belly at the market, it cost 24 yuan a catty, and now there are 19 yuan a catty. 15 yuan a catty. The foreleg meat and the hind leg meat used to be about 20 yuan, and now it is about 15 yuan. At the same time, eggs have risen from about 4 yuan to 6 yuan 3, and vegetables have basically grown by 5 yuan. For example, cucumbers have risen from 2 yuan a catty to 3 yuan 5.
Ma Youxiang, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at a press conference on September 1 that as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaches, the consumption of agricultural products will usher in the traditional peak season. In particular, the production capacity of live pigs was fully restored. At the end of July, the national stock of breeding sows and pigs recovered to 101.6% and 100.2% at the end of 2017, respectively.Achieve the recovery target six months in advance. Therefore, during the holiday season, the supply of my country’s agricultural products market is guaranteed, “especially pork, which has fallen very fast recently. I hope everyone will take this opportunity to eat more pork and buy more pork”.
Hu Qimu, chief researcher of the China Steel Economic Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Beijing Business Daily that for pork, pork prices have continued to fall since the beginning of this year. This is the impact of the pig cycle. At present, the supply of live pigs is still increasing. Purchasing and storage have been started, which is expected to ease the downward trend of pork to a certain extent. Because the price of meat is too low, it will affect the enthusiasm of farmers, and then inhibit the supply.
"The increase in prices of fresh fruits and vegetables is mainly due to bad weather, declining logistics efficiency, and rising prices in the short term. It is expected that the weather will gradually improve in September and prices will fall. However, the consumption side will expand during the'Golden September and Silver October' period. Therefore, the price of fresh food will not plummet." Hu Qimu said.
Coal and crude oil rose sharply, PPI set a new high
In August, the national ex-factory price of industrial producers rose 9.5% year-on-year, setting a new high since September 2008. Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics The price increase of chemical products and steel products has affected the price increase of industrial products both month-on-month and year-on-year.
Central Plains Bank Chief Economist Wang Jun said in an interview with a reporter from Beijing Commercial Daily that it is not surprising that the PPI continued to rise in August and hit a new year-on-year high. Mainly due to the continuous rise of bulk commodities, especially the significant increase in the price index of means of production, such as coal prices and the prices of downstream industries in the crude oil, natural gas, and coal industry chains. This reflects on the one hand that domestic demand is still strong, and on the other hand. Supply constraints have not been effectively alleviated.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from a year-on-year perspective, among the major industries, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal mining and dressing, oil and natural gas mining, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing The price increase of industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry, and chemical fiber manufacturing industry ranged from 21.8% to 57.1%, which together affected the PPI increase by about 7.9%, more than 80% of the total increase. Among them, the price increase of coal mining and washing industry, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 11.4, 2.7 and 1.1 percentage points respectively.This is the main reason for the year-on-year increase.
Wang Jingwen said that in the previous two months, the month-on-month increase in PPI was mainly driven by the oil industry and coal industry, but since August, the international crude oil price has fallen, causing the month-on-month price of the oil and natural gas extraction industry to drop from 5.9% to -1.2. %, while coal prices are still strong, coal mining and washing industries rose 6.5% month-on-month, and the increase was only 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month.
"The main factors affecting PPI are limited supply expansion and continued strong demand. At present, on the one hand, the coal supply gap exists objectively, which provides fundamental support for price increases. Judging from the penalties imposed by the trading center, there is still speculative power in the market to increase prices through information speculation.” Hu Qimu told a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, “Therefore, on the one hand, we must continue to release production capacity and put reserves on the premise of ensuring safe production. On the other hand, raising coal prices is not conducive to the recovery of the real economy. Industrial profits will flow into the hands of hot money. It is necessary to strictly investigate the power of speculation in the market."
It was announced on the 7th that malicious speculation on coal prices, price hikes, hoarding and other behaviors should be eliminated, and the coal market should be consciously maintained. The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to strengthen information monitoring, work with relevant departments to crack down on such violations of laws and regulations, and earnestly do a good job in ensuring coal supply and price stabilization to ensure the smooth and orderly operation of the market.
Consumption is booming, and we need to maintain supply and stable prices.
The peak consumption season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” is coming. What will be the trend of CPI and PPI in the future?
Wang Jingwen said that the key to determining CPI performance in the next stage is pork price and base factors. From the perspective of pork prices, historically, if the pig food ratio returns to the range above 6:1, it will be as little as 14 weeks and as long as 70 weeks. Since August, the pig-to-grain ratio has been below 6:1. Due to the high level of live pig stocks, it is difficult for temporary purchases and storage to reverse the downward trend of pork prices in the short term. It is expected that the trend of pork will remain weak during the year. From the perspective of base effect, due to the low year-on-year growth rate in November last year (-0.5%), it is expected that the CPI may rise in November this year. However, due to the overall decline in demand and the mainstay of monetary policy, there is no basis for substantial price increases.It is estimated that the probability of CPI exceeding 2% in the second half of the year is unlikely.
In Wang Jun's view, overall, terminal prices have basically remained stable, and will continue to rise slightly as food prices stabilize and rebound and consumption becomes prosperous. At the same time, it is also stated once again that despite the rapid rise in upstream prices this year, the impact of commodity price fluctuations on CPI is far less significant than that of PPI, and it has not been completely transferred to the downstream and will not constitute a direct impact on CPI.
Wang Jun said that it is expected that the price of subsequent industrial products will remain at a high probability, and the pattern of industrial product inflation is still strengthening rather than alleviating. If there is a significant decline in economic growth in the third and fourth quarters, then the atypical "stagflation" pattern in the second half of this year will be reconfirmed, which will bring greater uncertainty to the stability and looseness of subsequent monetary policy.
Hu Qimu also said, “It is expected that as the weather conditions improve, logistics efficiency will gradually recover, and there is no room for continuous upward movement of CPI. However, due to the increase in import costs of some upstream raw materials, the supply gap still exists for PPI. High shocks require comprehensive measures to expand supply and stabilize commodity prices."
(Source: Beijing Commercial Daily)
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Release date: 2021-09-09 17:54:06 Category: Headlines
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