Recently, a piece of news was on the hot search list, but was silently drowned out again.
Vice Chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center, Former Vice President of the International Monetary Fund Zhu Min said at the Central Economic Work Conference:
Now the employment of college graduates is lower than that of college graduates, and the employment of college graduates is lower than that of technical secondary schools and high school students. In other words, the more you learn, the lower the employment rate. This is related to many structural changes, as well as the communication information for students to find jobs after graduation during the epidemic era. Regardless, it's a waste of human resources.
When we move towards the high-quality development of and , high-quality manpower becomes particularly important. China passed the peak of "labor supply" in 2012, which is also the so-called " Lewis turning point " in economics. This year has passed the peak of the total population. In this sense, we must move from demographic dividend to engineer dividend, and it is very important to fully employ college students.
Extract key information, and translate it by the way:
1. It is not as easy for undergraduates and graduate students to find jobs as for college students, and it is not as easy for college students to find jobs as for technical secondary school students and high school students. The more you learn, the harder it is to find a job. This situation has been going on for several years.
2. What is the Lewis turning point?
From the beginning, urban employment income was higher than agricultural income, so migrant workers continued to rush to the city. As long as the wages paid by capitalists were higher than those for farming, they would not worry about recruiting people. This is before the turning point. This is the so-called "demographic dividend": with a little money, you can recruit a lot of people. Obviously it’s not the workers who get the bonus, but the bosses.
When there is no surplus labor force in rural areas, the previous method will no longer work. There are only so many people, and if the number of jobs continues to increase, we will have to offer high wages to recruit people. It is no longer easy for bosses to recruit "beautiful and cheap" workers.
The Lewis turning point is about saying "goodbye" to the demographic dividend.
So what does this have to do with the fact that it is not as easy to find a job as someone with a high degree of education?
It is like this. When there is a demographic dividend and the economy is good, the boss has a lot of money in his pocket, and the salary of junior workers is low. For a slightly more complicated position, he is willing to spend more money to buy academic qualifications at a premium.
In other words, the boss is more willing to hire a college student for a job that a high school student can do.
Firstly, it is not short of money, secondly, it is for appearance, and thirdly, Chinese people have always worshiped academic qualifications. Due to historical reasons, we once had a gap in academic qualifications. Bosses tend to have their own academic filters, thinking that high academic qualifications roughly equal high ability.
The current situation has changed: entry-level jobs cannot be filled, but the same is true for recruiting people, and the money spent is more than in the past, but still cannot be filled.
Many people's ideas are still stuck in the era when migrant workers earned 2-3k per month.
In fact, whether it is a construction site or a factory, the salary of low-educated workers generally reaches more than 4K. Workers without a bachelor's degree but with some skills can easily earn 5k-6k.
Take Foxconn as an example. Their average monthly salary is 6,703 yuan/month, of which 39% of employees’ salary income is in the 4-6k range, and 23% of employees’ salary income is in the 6-8k range. In addition, Foxconn’s average year-end bonus is 11,029 yuan.
When the wages of ordinary employees are high, the bosses become even more stingy, breaking every penny in half and spending it. In this case, he is no longer willing to pay the academic premium. In addition, a bachelor's degree is now more common, and more and more bosses use higher education, so higher education has lost its mystery. The bosses found that if they hired a college student to do a job that a high school student could do, and paid him a thousand yuan a month, he would still do this job, and he would not be much better than a high school student.
has been used by college students for so many years, and college students are no longer valuable. As long as the sample size is large enough, it will be easier for people to see the essence of the problem: whether a person is good or not is not directly related to the level of academic qualifications, but only related to the person's own ability. People with low education but experience and know how to get things done may be much easier to use than people with higher education but dullness.
In a word, when there are not enough bullets in the pocket, the boss chooses not to pretend to be fat, and no longer pays for unnecessary academic qualifications.
The employment rate of college graduates is not as good as that of junior college, technical secondary school, and high school students. The direct consequence is that a group of college students are unemployed immediately after graduation. They cannot find a job and sit at home. They even deliberately fail exams or thesis defenses to delay graduation.
Zhu Min attributed part of this incident to poor communication about the epidemic. But with the implementation of liberalization policies, this fig leaf will soon be torn off.
Then people will find that college students cannot find jobs during the epidemic. Without the epidemic, they still cannot find jobs!
This incident is actually a clear signal: in the future, the cost-effectiveness of people’s investment in academic qualifications will inevitably become lower and lower.
Many old mothers of chicken babies often go in the wrong direction, thinking that the college entrance examination is the indicator light for chicken babies . In fact, employment is the real ultimate indicator.
Nowadays, the cost of chicken babies is so high. In first-tier cities, it costs at least millions to raise a child all the way to college. The country also wants to change, but it is a pity that has been reduced and has been reduced. The more the reduction, the higher the training cost.
In the past, the unit of making up a class was in hundreds, but now the unit of making up a class is in thousands. A friend's child is in the second year of high school and has one-on-one tutoring. One class is 2k, and one semester alone costs 200,000. I was scared to death when I heard that. The key is that he does not want his child to be admitted to Qingbei. As long as the child can get into one line, he will be satisfied.
Isn’t this dark humor when you spend so much money to educate your children to get a bachelor’s or graduate degree, but in the end they can’t find a job?
Although academic qualifications are much more valuable to parents than to bosses. After all, when communicating with relatives and friends, the children are highly educated and speak a little louder, but the price/performance ratio is too far apart.
A friend once joked that a relative who sold his house in Shanghai to study abroad never appeared at family gatherings again. The houses sold at that time can already be used to buy two or three single-family villas abroad. As for my relative's daughter, she just bought a house abroad and it was mortgaged. Even if he wants to return to China and sell the house he lives in now, he can't afford to buy a shabby old house in Shanghai, and he will lose money.
Next, parents may need to adjust their chicken baby strategy.
is the material for studying. Those who study easily, especially children with good scores in science, still have to study hard. After all, real talents are not only needed by the country, but they can also get high returns - they can study easily, and their future salary levels will be high.
On the contrary, if you are not a student, there is really no need to risk your life, spend a lot of money, and stumble your child into a not-so-good undergraduate program. The monthly income difference between undergraduate and junior college students may be only 1-2k, but the cost and energy invested are more than ten times different.
In this case, forget it.
There is no demographic dividend. As long as you are willing to learn a skill and find a job, it will not be much different. For those who really care about academic qualifications, although it is hard to upgrade from a junior college to a bachelor's degree after adulthood, it is still easy. No matter what, it's better than if you don't study on your own and your parents don't drink water and forcefully massage your head.
Are you and your children ready for a future without demographic dividend and academic filters?
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