Moore's Law Under the limit, semiconductors are reshuffled
Intel founder Gordon Moore proposed the concept of Moore's Law, which has guided the development of the semiconductor market for decades. According to Moore's Law, the transistor that can be accommodated by integrated circuits doubles every 2 years, and the price is half of the original price.
As the chip process develops to 3nm, the future path will become increasingly difficult. Therefore, the industry believes that Moore's Law is about to face its limit and may still develop to the level of 2nm and 1nm. So what happens?
If Moore's Law cannot guide the continuous breakthrough of chip manufacturing process, will human chip development stop there? Obviously it is impossible, because under Moore's Law, the global semiconductor market is being reshuffled, and some new process chips and technical directions are constantly being explored and certain exploration results have been achieved.
is first of all a new process chip, representing the industry, photonic chip .
silicon is the first generation of semiconductor material , and the silicon-based integrated circuit made of is also called an electronic chip. The chips made of second-generation semiconductor materials such as gallium arsenide and indium phosphide are photonic chips. This type of chip has the characteristics of high speed, high frequency and high power, and is widely used in communications, big data and other fields. The calculation speed of
photonic chip is 1,000 times that of electronic chips, and it has no dependence on high-end EUV lithography machines. The process of hundreds of nanometers can support photonic chip production.
The first domestic photonic chip production line is under preparation and will be completed next year. Once the photonic chip industry develops on a large scale, it will be a significant reshuffle for global semiconductors. Because companies that have reached the end of Moore's Law can change their path and continue moving forward.
is followed by a new technical direction, which represents advanced packaging of technology.
former vice chairman of SMIC said that advanced packaging is a technology for the layout of the post-Moore era.
This shows that advanced packaging technology will become one of the exploration directions under the limit of Moore's Law. In fact, chip manufacturing giants such as TSMC are indeed vigorously laying out advanced packaging technology. And targeting 2.5D and 3D packaging technologies, a new semiconductor alliance has been established.
At the end of October, TSMC joined hands with giants such as ARM, Samsung, SK Hynix , Micron and other giants to establish a 3D Fabric alliance. This is an open innovation platform for the development of advanced packaging technology, with the main purpose of promoting the development of 3D semiconductors.
Before TSMC established the 3D Fabric Alliance, the industry's exploration of advanced packaging was limited. At most, it was just to focus on a certain direction to make breakthroughs. If the entire industry wants to participate, it is necessary to formulate complete standards, processes and IP intellectual property rights, so the 3D Fabric Alliance was born.
believes that under the promotion of the 3D Fabric Alliance, advanced packaging can continue the limits of Moore's Law and allow humans to go further on the development path of chips.
How to grasp the reshuffle of domestic semiconductors
The global semiconductor market is reshuffling, new processes and new technologies have attracted attention one after another, and there are substantial progress.
So how can domestic semiconductors grasp the reshuffle? In fact, China is also focusing on these directions to develop. Photonic chips are preparing to build production lines in China. Advanced packaging was also proposed by SMIC. The explanation will regard advanced packaging as the key point of deployment.
It can be foreseen that there will be many innovative breakthroughs in the future semiconductor market. In the traditional electronic chip industry chain, starting from the architecture, we will build an industrial chain with high controllability.
For example, LoongArch has developed its own LoongArch architecture. On this architecture, LoongSheng and industry partners have worked together to complete the adaptation of domestic mainstream software and hardware platforms, including the open source Hongmeng system.
In addition, the RISC-V architecture has also been vigorously deployed by domestic manufacturers such as Alibaba , Huawei . This is an open source and free architecture platform. It is very optimistic by Chinese academician Ni Guangnan , and calls on domestic manufacturers to make appropriate layouts. As Ni Guangnan called for, more and more development results have been achieved in China based on the RISC-V architecture.
With the support of the architecture, the development of chips can ensure controllability and further improve self-sufficiency from the perspective of design.
Many domestic manufacturers have carried out self-developed chip business, especially in the mobile phone industry. First-tier brands have successively launched self-developed chips, from NPU to ISP, starting from the small chip track, and then developing into a more comprehensive chip field in the future.
On the basis of solving architectural problems, it has the conditions to design more and more comprehensive chip products. In addition to ensuring chip design, production capacity is also a major focus. Many domestic market industries have not reached the saturation of demand, and smart cars, big data and the Internet of Things are still in the early stages of development. If more mature chip production capacity can be brought, it will also benefit.
written at the end
Global semiconductor market Due to the arrival of the limit of Moore's Law, the development of process technology has gradually become slow. It takes two or three years to transition from 3nm to 2nm, and it takes a lot of time to precipitate when 2nm develops from 1nm. The exploration of new processes and new technologies is underway, and I believe that it will bring a different pattern to the global semiconductor market in the future.
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