According to the financial report provided by ASML, the total revenue in the first quarter of this year was 35.34 euros, a year-on-year decline of 19%. This has also caused many people to suspect that the lithography machine market is no longer good, but after the latest data is released, everything has answers. Has ASML already won?
latest data released
After TSMC reported that it had shut down EUV equipment, ASML was under tremendous pressure. The decline in demand for advanced processes has become a fact. In addition, the number of customers is extremely limited, the subsequent shipments of EUV lithography machines will definitely be affected accordingly. In addition, the export of DUV lithography machines in the Chinese market is also extremely unclear.
Just when many people thought ASML was not working, a piece of data came to directly correct its name. According to statistics released by CINNO Research, ASML ranked second in the revenue ranking of semiconductor equipment suppliers that have been listed around the world, and only ranked fourth before.
can explain the problem well from this ranking. Although the revenue has declined, it is not from ASML itself, but the global trend is like this. The increase in ranking is likely because of the significant revenue growth in the second quarter. If the Chinese market can be effectively protected, there is nothing to worry about in ASML in the future.
From the current market analysis, ASML's equipment is still in a state of supply in short supply, but its revenue declined significantly year-on-year. The main reason is that the supply of parts in the global market is tight. In addition, the fire in the German factory and the special gas shutdown of the supply of has led to repeated delays in the shipment of lithography machines. The accumulated orders are expected to not be completed until 2024.
This is also the reason for the obvious decline in revenue in the first quarter, but the recovery in revenue in the second quarter was still very obvious. However, even so, ASML still tried its best to provide production capacity to the Chinese market. It shipped 23 lithography machines in the first quarter alone, which is enough to show its importance to the Chinese market.
has issued warnings for the supply of the Chinese market, requiring it not to ship DUV lithography machines again, but ASML did not listen to the advice and directly retorted: "If DUV lithography machines are not shipped to the Chinese market, it will lead to interruption of the global chip industry chain!"
After choosing to "hardly fight" the US, ASML has gained unexpected gains. Although it is not yet able to get rid of the American-inclusive technology, at this stage, if the US wants to reshape the local chip industry chain, it is also inseparable from the supply of top lithography machines. Therefore, it is currently not daring to completely fall with ASML, and it is just maintaining the supply of DUV lithography machines, and there is no actual "cross-line".
The US cannot control ASML.
The "wind direction" of the semiconductor market today has gradually changed. Multiple channels have confirmed the global chip shortage. It has always appeared in mature processes. Advanced processes have always had a large inventory. Mobile phone sales are declining significantly, while industries such as smart cars, the Internet of Things are rising, so the demand for mature processes will continue to grow.
ASML naturally knows the direction of this market, so it is so tough in the attitude of banning DUV lithography machines. The continuous expansion of the market share of mature processes means that the demand for DUV lithography machines will also increase accordingly, and this trend is mainly in the Chinese market.
The domestic market has greater shipping space, so ASML will definitely not compromise. There is another very critical factor. Domestic lithography machines are about to come out and it is possible to complete the conquest at any time. Therefore, ASML must seize this last opportunity and make as much money as possible.
Full revenue is the foundation of a company. If the US insists on limiting the supply of DUV lithography machines in the Chinese market, ASML will definitely be more excessive than what it is now. It is unpaid to do so. As the US, it has temporarily stopped its next plan. After all, ASML's market position is there.
ASML currently has a large part of its revenue from EUV lithography machines, but its customers are relatively limited. In addition to TSMC and Samsung , only memory chip manufacturers such as Micron , SK Hynix and other memory chip manufacturers can obtain it. With the decline in mobile phone sales, the inventory of memory chips is also a problem.
Therefore, in order to ensure full revenue, we can only focus on mature processes. Although the DUV lithography machine is cheap, the cost is relatively low, and the overall profit is not worse than that of EUV lithography machine. Therefore, the restrictions of the United States have basically failed to ASML. What do you think about this?
