But now there are new news coming from the international market, all of which are unfavorable to ASML. Under the constant oppression of the United States, the days of this "monopoly" are no longer easy, and the "good days" are gradually going away. What happened? How should ASML respond?
ASML’s dilemma
According to the latest news, TSMC has announced that it will shut down some EUV lithography equipment at the end of the year. The purpose is to save money. It is reported that an EUV lithography machine is running at full load, and it takes one day. 30,000 kilowatt hours of electricity are used, with annual consumption exceeding 10 million kilowatt hours.
Behind this "cost saving", it reflects the current dilemma of the chip industry. Most of the advanced processes are used in smartphones and other devices. According to statistics, only 311.2 million were shipped globally in the first quarter of 2022. mobile phone sales fell by more than 11% year-on-year, and continued to decline to 292 million units in the second quarter.
Currently, TSMC has 80 EUV lithography machines, while Samsung has about 50. More than 90% of the production capacity is in the hands of these two companies. As the shipment volume of digital products decreases, the demand for advanced chips will naturally follow. Due to the decrease, Qualcomm , MediaTek and other manufacturers are reducing orders.
TSMC has announced the shutdown of some EUV equipment, indicating that the production capacity that can be provided to Samsung will also be reduced. This shows that the existing EUV lithography machine production capacity demand has been excessive and the demand is decreasing. The biggest impact is naturally on selling equipment. ASML is raw.
You must know that in the past few months, EUV production capacity was still in short supply. In order to obtain more production capacity, the person in charge of Samsung also went to the ASML headquarters in the Netherlands and requested the timely delivery of more EUV lithography machines. But now such a change It's really surprising.
itself is affected by the current situation. After neon was cut off by , ASML's actual production capacity has been affected, and it is unable to deliver customer orders on time, which also makes it miss the best opportunity. Facing today's market environment With sudden changes, EUV lithography machines are likely to be forced into inventory.
Academician Ni Guangnan called for a long time ago: "We must focus on mature technology!" SMIC became prosperous after following this, but TSMC did the opposite and was overly obsessed with advanced technology. Now, It can be said that our situation is becoming increasingly difficult, and the words of the academician have come true.
How should ASML respond
Before the chip bill was released, the United States approached ASML and asked it to adjust the scope of restrictions on chips from the original EUV category to the DUV category. ASML, which is well aware of the importance of the Chinese market, refused in person made such an unreasonable request.
But this also angered the United States. After the new chip bill was implemented, there was a restriction specifically for ASML, that is, the advanced process scope was adjusted to below 28nm. Later, its person in charge also officially announced that chips for the Chinese market Equipment restrictions will be raised from the original 10nm to 14nm. It is obvious that the purpose is to prevent the import of DUV lithography machines.
Due to the reduction in demand for advanced processes, the sales of EUV lithography machines will definitely be affected. If even DUV lithography machines cannot be exported, then ASML’s actual operations will definitely encounter difficulties. After all, China has become the third largest in the world. Lithography equipment market.
But this time the person in charge of ASML has such a decisive attitude, which is enough to show the seriousness of the problem. Previously, the global core shortage was also mature technology, and advanced technology chips have always been in stock, and the market demand for mature technology has accounted for More than 90%, so this is why domestic academicians call for the localization of mature processes.
In addition to facing the fact of shrinking production capacity, ASML is also constantly facing external pressure. Under the leadership of Chinese Academy of Sciences , domestic lithography machines are only one step away from mass production, while Japanese companies Canon and Nikon has also resumed the research and development of photolithography machines, which also declares that ASML's photolithography machines are not irreplaceable.
is compared to R & D Optical Machines. At present, various countries want to get rid of the "lithography machine dependence". They have worked hard on new materials and new processes. NIL technology has been confirmed that it does not use EUV light to use EUV optical light. In the case of the carving machine, it can achieve a process below 5 nanometers. Also, the stacking processes developed by Huawei and TSMC are all affecting the status of the lithography machine.
In addition, optoelectronic chips, carbon -based chips and other technologies have made significant breakthroughs. Once the technology has successfully achieved commercial use, it means that it has been able to get rid of the light carvings to achieve chip manufacturing, so it will say that ASML's ASML's "Good day" has been drifting away. What do you think of this?
