ASML stated that it is still increasing the production capacity of EUV lithography machines, but it also expressed concerns that there will be a surplus of EUV lithography machines in the next three years. Faced with the prospect of possible surplus, it still plans to significantly increase the production capacity of EUV lithography machines. The purpose may be to strive for free shipments in the next two to three years and massively supply EUV lithography machines to China. The EUV production capacity plan given by
ASML shows that the output of EUV lithography machines will increase to 55 units this year, and the output is expected to reach 90 units by 2025. Such a large increase in production may lead to overcapacity of EUV lithography machines.
Due to well-known reasons, ASML is currently unable to supply EUV lithography machines to China. Among many chip manufacturing companies around the world, GF and UMC have stopped developing 7nm and more advanced processes. Companies that need EUV lithography machines Only Intel, TSMC and Samsung are left.
TSMC and Samsung currently plan to mass-produce 3nm processes in the second half of the year. Their more advanced 2nm processes require second-generation EUV lithography machines; Intel's Intel 4 factory has completed the installation of EUV lithography machines and other equipment, and the more advanced Intel 20 Other processes also require second-generation EUV lithography machines. Their subsequent demand for EUV lithography machines will mainly be used to increase production capacity, which means that the demand for EUV lithography machines by these three chip manufacturing companies will decrease significantly.
TSMC started purchasing lithography machines in 2017, and has only purchased 79 EUV lithography machines so far. However, it has captured more than 50% of the global chip foundry market, but ASML plans to achieve an annual output of 90 EUV lithography machines by 2025. Under such circumstances, it is no longer realistic to rely solely on TSMC, Samsung and Intel to consume the production capacity of these EUV lithography machines. EUV lithography machines are likely to have overcapacity.
ASML knows that EUV lithography machines may have overcapacity, but still aggressively expands EUV lithography machines. This is because it is eager to recover its R&D investment. It is reported that it has invested more than 40 billion in the development of EUV lithography machines, and it has so far supplied TSMC, Intel and Samsung. The profits from EUV lithography machines are quite limited, and the second-generation EUV lithography machines will start production in 2024, so it is eager to sell another wave of EUV lithography machines in this limited period of more than three years to increase profits.
But as mentioned above, Intel, TSMC and Samsung have basically completed their investment in advanced processes that require EUV lithography machines. The next purchase of EUV lithography machines is just to increase production capacity. The demand for EUV lithography machines will be greatly reduced. It can be speculated that ASML Still vigorously expanding the production capacity of EUV lithography machines should be aimed at exporting to China in the next few years.
China's demand for lithography machines has almost exploded. In the past three years, China has greatly expanded its chip production capacity. The world's lithography machines simply cannot meet China's needs. As a result, China has to purchase second-hand lithography machines from Japan on a large scale. As a result, the price of second-hand lithography machines in Japan has tripled, but it still cannot fully meet China's demand. It can be seen how huge China's demand for lithography machines is.
Chinese chip manufacturing companies have been preparing for 7nm process technology for several years and are always ready to promote mass production of 7nm and even more advanced processes. Once ASML is licensed to supply EUV lithography machines to China, China will purchase them on a large scale, as Previously, mainland China purchased second-hand DUV lithography machines from Japan, and this was also ASML’s opportunity to make the last wave of profits from EUV lithography machines. It is not surprising that ASML is now aggressively expanding its production capacity of EUV lithography machines.
At present, the global chip market has undergone major changes. It has transformed from insufficient supply to oversupply. Many chip companies in the United States have been reported that their chip inventory levels exceed normal levels. Therefore, they have prayed for Chinese companies to purchase more chips. A leading analog chip company even The massive price reduction of nearly 90% to attract purchases from Chinese companies shows that the current glut in the chip industry has become serious.
Nowadays, ASML is aggressively expanding its EUV lithography machines. However, the three major customers of Intel, TSMC and Samsung are no longer able to acquire such a large number of EUV lithography machines. ASML may also pray to Chinese chips like American chips. It can be said that it is the same thing but how arrogant they were back then. , but now with such a low profile, the contrast is a bit too severe.
