In the capital market in 2020, new energy vehicle companies will shine and usher in a general explosion.
Currently, Tesla's market value ranks first among global auto companies, leading the second place Toyota Motor by as much as 350 billion US dollars.
The share prices of the top three new domestic car-making forces, Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Ideal Auto, have also soared in US stocks, ranging from several times to several times as high as possible.
Changan Automobile, the new leader of auto companies
, the popularity of new energy vehicles in the US stocks will naturally burn A shares. In recent months, auto companies such as Great Wall Motors and BYD have also seen a wave of more than doubled prices.
Fengshui takes turns, and recently the leading auto stock has become Changan Automobile (000625.SZ).
From November 11 to December 1st, the stock price of Changan Automobile has risen by more than 70% in just 14 trading days.
At present, the total market value of Changan Automobile is 149 billion yuan, second only to Ningde Times, BYD, SAIC, and Great Wall Motor in the A-share auto sector, ranking fifth.
Speaking of Changan Automobile, many people's first impression is that this company is too low-key. It is not as well-known as SAIC, GAC, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall among domestic car companies, but in fact, Changan Automobile can be described as "low-key but connotative."
In the October sales ranking of domestic automakers, Changan Automobile ranked seventh with 112,000 units, and Great Wall Motor’s 115,000 units were ahead of it.
In the cumulative sales rankings for the first 10 months of this year, Changan Automobile leads Great Wall Motor's 626,000 units with a sales volume of 754,000 units, ranking sixth.
At present, Great Wall Motor leads Changan Automobile with a market value of 256.5 billion yuan by more than 100 billion yuan.
compares the sales and market value of Changan Automobile and Great Wall Motor. Changan Automobile, which has risen by 70% in the short term, does not seem to have a high share price.
Changan vs. Great Wall, slightly low-end
Of course, sales are only a reference indicator. The actual volume of the two car companies depends on the specific figures. In terms of financial reports, in the first three quarters of this year, Changan Automobile achieved operating income of 55.842 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.77%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 230.98%; non-net profit was negative, but the loss narrowed to 20.97 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.63%. In terms of Great Wall Motors, the company's operating income in the first three quarters was 62.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.05%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.32%.
From the perspective of revenue volume, Changan Automobile lags Great Wall Motor by more than 7 billion yuan, but in the first 10 months of this year, Changan Automobile’s sales volume is higher than that of Great Wall Motor. This shows that the average price of a single car of Changan Automobile is lower than that of Great Wall Motor. Great Wall Motor. To put it more simplistically, Changan Automobile is "lower-end" than Great Wall Motor.
Look at the selling prices of Changan Automobile's main models. Changan Automobile’s main sedans cost less than 130,000 at the highest and less than 50,000 at the lowest. For
SUV, the highest price is in the early 200,000 yuan, most of which are in the tens of thousands, and the lowest is less than 60,000.
Take the most popular models sold by Changan Automobile, the Yidong PLUS sedan has sold more than 100,000 in half a year, but the price is between 72,900 and 103,900; the CS75 in the SUV has been sold for 6 consecutive months. The monthly sales volume exceeded 20,000, and the cumulative sales in the first three quarters exceeded 175,000, but the price was only between 106,900 and 154,900. The price of
, whether it is Yidong PLUS or CS75, is still on the low side. Low prices mean low profits, and low prices also mean limited room for growth. In the past two years, the most notable feature of the automotive industry has been the end of more than 30 years of sales growth. With the increasing saturation of automobiles, the industry has changed from an incremental market to a stock market.
However, if we analyze in depth, the so-called "stock market" in the automotive industry is more of a stock market for low-end cars, and sales of high-end cars are increasing. The most typical example of
is that in the first half of 2019, the sales growth rate of cars below 100,000 yuan was negative 23%, while luxury cars led by Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi during the same periodHowever, it bucked the trend and the growth rate even reached double digits.
Low-end cars are becoming more and more unsellable, while sales of high-end cars are on the rise. The fundamental reason for this "ice and fire" phenomenon is: rich people who don’t need money are not sensitive to the price of cars at all, and the more expensive they are The more you can show your identity, the more you want to buy.
Most ordinary people, whose income is not so high, are very sensitive to car prices, and may be several thousand yuan higher than the budget, so they will not buy a car.
Therefore, the market for cars with less than 100,000 yuan is getting more and more difficult.
2019 is a "cold winter" year for the auto industry. The stock prices of most auto stocks are in a downturn and there are few trends in rising prices.
New changes in the auto market
But after 2020, the auto market has undergone some changes.
First, after the mass production of Tesla's super factory in Shanghai, the price continued to decrease, which played a "catfish effect" and upset the auto market.
The price of Tesla continues to decrease, which stimulates the continuous increase in sales, and the localization rate is also rising. As a result, Tesla's domestic suppliers' stock prices continue to rise, and their valuations continue to rise.
Second, because of the epidemic, people are generally worried that taking public transportation will increase the risk of being "recruited" by the new crown virus, which will boost the demand for private cars.
Third, after two consecutive years of sluggish car sales in 2018 and 2019, this year caught up with the small wave of car replacement, and car sales have also achieved growth. According to the latest data from Changan Automobile, in October, Changan Automobile's sales reached 212,640 units, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, which is a new monthly sales high this year. This has also become an important reason for the company's share price increase.
Overall, this year's auto market sales are in a "phased rebound" trend, and it is far from a big bull market in sales.
But it was such a periodic rebound in sales that triggered the doubling of many auto stocks in the stock market.
teamed up with Huawei, Changan Automobile ushered in a qualitative change?
Looking back on the trend of auto stocks this year, Tesla’s skyrocketing drove the rise of individual stocks in the upstream and downstream industry chains, and then the rise of Tesla’s market value triggered the rise of domestic new energy vehicles. After the rise in the stock prices of new energy car companies, it has also driven The valuation of traditional auto companies has increased. Among the traditional car companies, BYD, which is the most prominent in new energy vehicles, has become a big bull, with a rich reserve of independent intellectual property rights. At the same time, Great Wall Motors, which involves new energy vehicles, has also become the leader.
The rise of the two leading domestic automakers, BYD and Great Wall Motors, stimulated the rise of other A-share automakers, and finally formed a full-blown sector.
has an obvious feature in this wave of auto stocks, that is, the market believes that the higher the technological content of auto companies, the more impressive their stock prices will rise.
Therefore, Changan Automobile, which has always been branded as "cheap cars", has recently caught up with the technology giant Huawei, and its share price has clearly outperformed Great Wall Motors and BYD.
On November 14, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, stated that he is following the development of the times and the needs of users, working with Huawei and Ningde era to jointly build high-end smart car brands and high-tech high-end products. He will meet with you soon.
Huawei is the most powerful technology giant in China. CATL is the unmatched leader in the power battery industry in China. The cooperation between Changan and the two giants gives the market plenty of room for imagination.
When Changan Automobile has more "high-end", "smart", and "technological" labels, the sharp rise in the stock price will be natural.
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