Since the full switch to National VI standard on July 1, 2021, the truck market has fallen into a downward trend, and sales have experienced a faulty decline. Many dealers have placed their hopes in 2022, including truck drivers. After all, good truck sales mean that the freight operation is impressive.
Unfortunately, what is unexpected is that the epidemic situation in the first half of 2022 has repeated, the economy has declined, oil prices have soared, and the new regulations have been implemented... There is too much force majeure. At present, this turnaround battle is not beautiful.
This reminds me of a meme on the Internet: "Life is just ups and downs."
Light truck : Beautiful is just a moment. The new regulations have too much potential
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (number of invoices, non-terminal actual sales, the same below), in January 2022, my country's light truck market sales were 161,800 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 8.59% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.53%. Although
both fell year-on-year (193,000 units were sold in January 2021), the sales of 161,800 units in January still surpassed the monthly sales highs in 2019 and 2020, and in the past decade it was a medium-to-high level, and it barely made a good start.
2 reversed, ending the eight consecutive declines from May 2021 to January 2022, achieving 123,000 sales, a month-on-month decrease of 23.95% and a year-on-year increase of 4.5%.
originally thought that the situation would be changed in February, but I didn’t expect it to be a flash in the pan. Since March, sales in the light truck market have begun to "slide" again.
data shows that from March to July 2022, my country's light truck sales were 182,400, 107,500, 124,300, 148,000 and 130,000 respectively; month-on-month was 48.17%, -41.09%, 14.83%, 19.13%, and -12.17% respectively; year-on-year was -33.3%, -54.2%, -37.5%, -20.45%, and -8.58% respectively.
Among them, the monthly sales and year-on-year decline of light trucks have continued to hit new lows in the same period in recent years. In addition to some force majeure factors, I think the sales of light trucks this year are mainly affected by the new blue brand regulations.
1-March is the early stage of the implementation of the new regulations. Car companies, dealers and users are all in a wait-and-see state. April-August is the digestion period for inventory cars. Overhead control policies have been tightened again. Users dare not buy light trucks in old regulations, and do not want to buy light trucks in compliance, and dealers are in a difficult situation.
The best is that in August of the last month of inventory vehicle digestion, it achieved sales of 127,500 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 1.92% and a year-on-year increase of 5.12%. This is the second time that the light truck market has achieved year-on-year growth this year.
However, this is also the result of major automakers' "strength efforts" to digest inventory cars as soon as possible. It may be a bit difficult to say whether the growth in September can continue.
Cash: The scenery is lost, but there are signs of easing
Cash's performance in 2021 is very eye-catching, and it is the only positive market segment in trucks with year-on-year growth. However, in 2022, it is also a disaster.
According to data, from January to August 2022, the sales volume of my country's China Card Market was 9302, 10829, 12326, 7533, 8000, 8938, 6700, and 7260 respectively; the month-on-month was -36.99%, 16.42%, 13.82%, -38.89%, 6.76%, 11.14%, -25.04%, and 8.36% respectively; the year-on-year was -45.73%, -9.66%, -53.26%, -58.11%, -58.18%, -42.60%, -40.96%, and -14.56% respectively.
It can be seen that the monthly sales of cards from mid-January to August 2022 experienced "8 consecutive declines", and the decline in March, April and May exceeded 50%, or even close to 60%. The decline in sales during this period was mainly affected by the outbreak of epidemics in many places such as Jilin, Shenzhen, and Shanghai at that time.
also saw sales of less than 10,000 units for five consecutive months. The sales of 6,700 units in July are not only the lowest this year, but also the lowest in the same period in the past five years.
At the same time, it can be seen that the decline in the second quarter was significantly greater than in the first quarter. Fortunately, the performance of July-40.96% decreased by 1.64 percentage points compared with last month, and August was even more turbulent, down 26.4 percentage points compared with July.
Heavy Truck: It's hard to get back to the peak again when it gets stuck in the dark
As mentioned earlier, the light truck is "slide", but when it comes to heavy trucks, it's simply playing with "bouncer" machine.
First look at the data. From January to August 2022, the sales volume of my country's heavy truck market was 95,400, 59,300, 76,800, 43,800, 49,200, 55,100, 45,200, and 46,200 respectively; the month-on-month was 65.8%, -37.85%, 29.47%, -42.89%, 12.28%, 12.01%, -17.97%, and 2% respectively; the year-on-year was -47.98%, -49.89%, -66.62%, -77.29%, -69.65%, -65.04%, -40.75%, and -10% respectively.
It can be clearly seen that the overall decline of heavy trucks is much greater than that of light trucks and medium trucks. The sales in a single month from January to August suffered a "8 consecutive declines". According to estimates, from May 2021 to August 2022, the heavy truck market has "16 consecutive declines", setting the longest decline in the industry history.
According to year-on-year data, the decline in March and June was relatively large, with an average of nearly 70%, and the decline began to narrow in July. This change is mainly related to the "demand overdraft" of emission upgrades last year (in July 2021, heavy trucks sold 76,300 vehicles, a sharp drop of 50%). Therefore, the decline began to narrow in July this year, just because the sales base was low in the same period last year, not real positive growth.
Previously, the industry predicted that the heavy truck industry would usher in a turning point in July and August, but now it seems that it has fallen. Of course, the market also needs a buffer period. Hopefully, it may be in September, after all, the year-on-year decline in August has shrunk to 10%.
The epidemic is the biggest "culprit". There is no hope of recovery.
. Look at the cumulative sales. From January to August 2022, the cumulative sales of light trucks were 1.1045 million units, a decrease of 24.58% over the same period last year; the cumulative sales of China Trucks were 70,888 units, a decrease of 44.71% over the same period last year; the cumulative sales of heavy trucks were 471,000 units, a decrease of 60% over the same period last year.
In addition, relevant people revealed to us that the sales volume of my country's heavy truck market this year is expected to be between 600,000 and 700,000 vehicles.
It is noted here that the decline of medium and heavy trucks is greater than that of light trucks. This is mainly because the epidemic has repeatedly broke out in many places this year, and the impact of the epidemic on the medium and long-distance transportation market is greater than that of the urban distribution transportation market.
medium and heavy trucks that run medium and long distances often need to cross cities and provinces, and they will inevitably pass through the epidemic control area. The epidemic prevention policy is increased layer by layer. In addition, the freight environment is not good. In many aspects, users are less enthusiastic about purchasing medium and heavy trucks than buying light trucks.
is now more than half of it in 2022. In the only four months left, is the truck industry still expected to recover? Can the cargo operation improve?
can be said for sure, it is unlikely. In other words, it depends on the easing of the epidemic.
The market environment is bad and the freight operation is sluggish for a long time. The soaring oil prices are temporary. The period of emission upgrades and the running-in period of new blue brand regulations will eventually pass. Only the epidemic (recent outbreaks in Sanya , Shenzhen and Chengdu) has its impact that cannot be restored in a short period of time.
First, the economy will decline, the supply of goods will decrease, freight rates will decrease, and users will not have enough funds to purchase/replace new cars; second, truck drivers will be blocked from traveling, and the living environment will become increasingly difficult. People outside the circle do not want to come in, people inside the circle want to go out, and personnel loss is serious.
In short, this year is really hard, but if you get through it, it may be better next year. (Text/Zhang Manqi)
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