Mercedes-Benz has also begun to make its own batteries

The high electric penetration rate and carbon emission policies that began in 2021 are forcing European and American car companies to act quickly. After Daimler released its own electric vehicle strategy report (200GWh and 8 battery factories) in July, Daimler announced that it would also define standard batteries and prepare its own Giga Factory. In addition to looking for partners to produce batteries together, Daimler also joined the Stellattis and Total joint venture automotive battery company (ACC) as the third partner in September, acquiring a 1/3 of the equity.

Figure 1 In July 2021, Daimler's chief clearly confirmed that it is looking for a partner to produce batteries

Figure 2 Mercedes-Benz has joined Stellatis and Total, and the three parties will trade ACC

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1. The situation of ACC

The current situation is pushing the governments of Germany and France to continuously use incentive measures to promote their own battery companies. ACC was established in September 2020. The original goal was to invest 5 billion euros to build two battery super factories by 2030, with a total annual output of 48 GWh (one each in Germany and France). With the entry of Mercedes-Benz, ACC suddenly gained confidence, with a total planned investment of more than 7 billion euros, and plans to produce at least 120 GWh of batteries by 2030.

From the timeline, it turns out that Stellaantis expects ACC to start mass production at the end of 2023. This time Mercedes-Benz joins, which means that the subsequent increase in production capacity is expected to be reserved for Mercedes-Benz. After all, I found a temporary solution to cooperate.

Figure 3 Now two car companies are supporting ACC

This model is very similar to Volkswagen, BMW and Volvo's Northvolt strategy.As shown in the figure below, European car companies are also aligning themselves in this round of electrification. Production at the Northvolt plant will start in 2021, and deliveries to Volkswagen will begin in 2023. Then Volvo cars joined and formed a joint venture with Northvolt, which will have an annual capacity of 50GWh for the future (the 15GWh of Northvolt's previous factory capacity was eaten up by Volvo's demand). Together with the 2 billion euro battery supply contract signed by Northvolt and BMW, Northvolt has three of its most important customers to support the establishment of battery production.

Figure 4 Northvolt has accepted the blessings of three auto companies in terms of equity and production capacity

Note: I am curious whether the CATL will take patent claims to Northvolt and ACC. Looking at the global patent competition, whether the Chinese leader can kill the hope of the entire European village through intellectual property rights on a global scale.

2. European plan

Before the United States came out to promote electric vehicles, Europeans had already begun a round of power battery promotion-planning to change their situation in 2030, at least in Europe To be self-sufficient within the country and achieve 31% of the global supply range by 2030.

Remarks: This estimate is the global production capacity of 2.262TWh, and Europe accounts for 812GWh.

Figure 5 European demand planning for European battery production capacity

In this plan, in fact, it is mainly Around the number of car companies can eat. Of course, there are more self-talking elements here. My personal view is that Europe can stop the Chinese battery supply chain. One is to look for ore on its own, and the other is to promote the production of materials and processes in Europe, and then use the carbon footprint method to track the carbon footprint of the battery (tracing upstream) and then Take this as a new generation of trade barriers.

So as shown in the figure below, we see that car companies have begun to realize that establishing their own control of battery supply (both equity and joint ventures) is the only way to control raw materials next, which has left the scope of traditional battery procurement , And another factor is that one's own demands for battery standardization are also needed.

Figure 6 Planning of European car companies and battery companies Tesla or MG, Xiaopeng, Weilai and BYD will definitely be stopped around 2023-2024.

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