“Industry insiders believe that the current automotive chip crisis is a contradiction between supply and demand in the commercial category. Product price increases will not be transmitted to end consumers, and most likely will be borne by vehicle companies and component suppliers. The crisis is expected Six months to one year have been greatly relieved."
The shortage of automotive chip supply continues to ferment.
Recently, it was reported that many chip suppliers such as Renesas Span11span Electronics , NXP, Toshiba, etc. are considering increasing the price of automotive-grade chips by 10% to 20%. TSMC and its peers, the world's largest chip foundry, are also considering raising prices for automotive chips.
Insufficient production capacity worldwide has given chip suppliers a firm grasp of pricing power. In addition, governments of many countries have also begun to join the queue for communication with chip suppliers. The industry is anxiously looking for answers. When will the shortage of automotive chip supply be solved?
's bargaining power improves
It is reported that the automotive chip industry is ushering in a general rise. Foreign media reports pointed out that Renesas Electronics recently negotiated with customers to increase the prices of multiple products such as power semiconductors and MCUs, and increase the prices of servers and industrial equipment chips by an average of 10% to 20%. Toshiba also began to negotiate with customers on the price increase of automotive chips. Toshiba said: "Processing costs and material costs are so high that they have to ask customers to reflect them on the product price."
In addition, , NXP , STMicroelectronics and other companies have also informed customers that they plan to adjust Up by about 10% to 20%. Regarding price increases, NXP responded: "Price changes are a fact."
At the same time, chip foundries have also contacted chip suppliers such as NXP and Surrey Electronics on price issues. If TSMC and other foundries succeed in increasing the price of chips, then this will be the second price increase in six months. Last year, the price of 8-inch wafers, which are mainly needed by automotive electronics, rose by 5% to 10% in the fourth quarter.Companies such as UMC increased their prices by 10% to 15% in the fourth quarter of last year. Taiwan's semiconductor packaging company ASE Technology is considering increasing its price by about 10%.
In this regard, an industry insider who did not want to be named believes that the increase in car chip prices will not be transmitted to end consumers, and will most likely be shared by vehicle companies and component suppliers. "When the supply-side capacity is more tight, chip manufacturers have greater bargaining power." He said.
"Based on the balance of supply and demand, our chip manufacturers are indeed in a relatively favorable position." said Liu Chi-tung, CFO of Span11span, UMC's (UMC), a subsidiary of TSMC responsible for the production of automotive chips.
In the past, the annual decline in the automotive industry was a general price "pressure" on component suppliers by vehicle companies. Generally, the latter would be required to lower their supply prices by 5% or more every year to increase their profit margins. . The chip price increase this time is more like an "anti-year decline." Coupled with the suspension and postponement of automobile manufacturing due to the shortage of chip supply, the profitability growth of vehicle enterprises may be in urgent need.
The government came forward to mediate.
blocked the normal production and profit margins, and vehicle companies began to be unable to sit still. According to the German "Auto Weekly" report, due to the shortage of chips, Volkswagen is considering filing a claim against its suppliers Bosch and Continental. Currently, the two sides are negotiating. In addition, Volkswagen hopes to start short-term cooperation with other new suppliers during this period, and the costs incurred should be shared with , Bosch and Continental. At the same time, Daimler also stated that it does not rule out the possibility of claiming compensation from Bosch and Continental.
The American Bernstein Research Company predicts that the global automotive chip shortage in 2021 will cause the loss of up to 4.5 million car production, equivalent to nearly 5% of the global annual car production. As a pillar industry of the national economy, the GDP and employment growth driven by the automobile industry have always been valued by governments.The chain reaction brought about by the lack of chips has caused major automobile countries to mediate through the government.
It is reported that US government officials will discuss the details of the supply of automotive chips with the head of TSMC. German Economy Minister Atmel stated that the current shortage of semiconductor chips is jeopardizing the recovery of the German automobile industry, which in turn jeopardizes the recovery of the global economy, and called on the relevant departments of Taiwan, China to clearly convey this news to TSMC.
A market researcher told reporters that many countries are currently competing for automotive chips, but it is unlikely that they will "grab" production capacity in advance. "After all, the order schedule is generally 3 months, even half a year." He introduced.
In the latest financial report, UMC disclosed that its factory capacity utilization rate was 99% in the fourth quarter of last year and is expected to reach 100% in the first quarter of this year. Liu Chi-tung said that their factory is currently operating at full capacity and it is difficult to increase production capacity in the short term.
However, the above-mentioned market researchers also said that the current major regions of the world have been promoting the localization of the semiconductor industry, and this trend is expected to accelerate after the supply chain turmoil.
In mid-2020, the Japanese government plans to invite TSMC and other global advanced chip manufacturers to build factories in Japan, and plans to provide hundreds of billions of yen in funds to overseas chip manufacturers participating in the project in the next few years.
According to reports, as an important partner of mainstream mobile terminal manufacturers in the world, nearly 60% of chip foundries in the world are completed by TSMC. In 2020, TSMC’s revenue and net profit increased by 25% and 50%, respectively, and both hit record highs. In the third quarter of last year, UMC’s net profit nearly tripled year-on-year.
Yang Yuxin, chief marketing officer of Black Sesame Intelligent Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. told reporters that for a long time in the past, TSMC was the company that invested the most in chip production in the entire global chip industry, so the chip processing Concentrated development, the stronger the stronger, and this pattern is difficult to change in the short term.
is expected to be alleviated after half a year
Faced with the "core shortage" situation,Upstream and downstream companies in the automotive industry chain have sought a timetable for the restoration of normal supply.
In this regard, Liu Chi-tung said that it is impossible to predict when the shortage of automotive chip supply will be resolved, but it will take at least 6 months for the company to prepare the production line. Horizon founder and CEO Yu Kai also expected that the supply of automotive chips would be eased in mid-2021.
"There will be a greater relief in half a year to a year." The aforementioned industry insiders said that the price increase is a contradiction between supply and demand in the commercial category, and the automotive industry is expected to resolve it soon. However, this crisis also makes the entire automotive industry chain reflect, for example, vehicle companies should increase communication with component suppliers in the follow-up.
Su Linlin, vice president of Ziguang Guowei, expressed similar views. In her view, vehicle companies, component manufacturers, and chip suppliers should cooperate in depth to jointly find alternatives to core chips, and jointly solve the current problem of chip boarding at the system level and component level. In the market, the short-term cost of chips needs to be shared by the entire industry chain to overcome the difficulties.
data shows that there is a big gap between my country's automotive semiconductor industry and the international advanced level. The current self-research rate is only 10%, and 90% of products must rely on imports. Faced with the current insufficient supply of automotive chips, it is still difficult for domestic products to replace imports.
"However, in the face of this crisis, more vehicle companies and first-tier component suppliers are also considering options to increase suppliers to reduce their dependence on certain chip manufacturers." Yang Yuxin said, from another perspective Look, this is also an opportunity for domestic chip manufacturers. At present, the domestic market's acceptance of independent chips continues to increase, and it is believed that the cycle of domestic substitution will not be too long.
Text: Zhao Lingling Editor: Pang Guoxia Format: Mengxuan
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