![Unprecedented! Huanqiu Automobile and 13 authoritative organizations predict the development trend of China's automobile industry in 2021 [Part 1]｜Huaqiu Micro IP - DayDayNews](https://cdn-dd.lujuba.top/img/loading.gif)
Sun Yong, vice chairman and executive editor of Auto Business Daily, organized 13 big predictions
On February 8, the 2020 Global Auto Annual Festival officially kicked off. Due to the epidemic, this year's grand ceremony was presented in the form of online live broadcast. As a highlight of this event, Huanqiu Automobile pioneered the industry. Under the auspices of Huanqiu Automobile’s vice chairman and executive editor-in-chief of Auto Business Daily, Sun Yong, for the first time, it united with 13 top authoritative organizations in the automotive industry to give a positive view to China in 2021. The development prospects of the automobile industry have been prospected from all angles and angles.
2021 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan". What new characteristics will China's auto industry present? Which favorable policies will be implemented to promote the stable and healthy development of the automotive industry? Under the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, what experience will the auto market reverse in 2020 provide for the future development of the auto industry? Under the "New Four Modernizations" of automobiles and the great changes in the world's automobile landscape, where will Chinese automobiles go?
To this end, the heads of the 13 organizations used rigorous data and analysis to analyze passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, automobile exports, automobile imports, second-hand car circulation, new energy vehicles, intelligent connected vehicles, parts, chips, Different sub-fields such as talents have made authoritative forecasts for the 2021 automobile industry and automobile market. (This article is the first part, including 6 auto market predictions in 2021)
01
2021 China's auto market will resume positive growth and reach 30 million in 2025
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Executive Vice President Fu Bingfeng, Chairman and Secretary-General and Chairman of the World Automobile Organization (OICA)
In 2020, under the unremitting efforts of the company itself and the strong recovery of market consumer demand, the automotive industry will achieve Encouraging performance. The annual sales growth rate has narrowed to less than 2%, and the sales of commercial vehicles and new energy vehicles have reached record highs.
2021 is the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan". Although there are still many uncertainties in the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the external environment, downward pressure on the economy still exists, but with the steady recovery of the national economy and the accelerated recovery of consumer demand, China Auto The market is still expected to achieve recovery and positive growth. At the same time, the auto market will show a slow growth trend, and the auto market will remain stable in the next five years. It is expected to reach 30 million vehicles in 2025. However, in a stable situation, market competition is still fierce, which will inevitably accelerate the transformation of auto companies and provide consumers with better products and services. The huge market space and strong product strength will help the Chinese auto market maintain a steady and positive development.
In order to realize the dream of a powerful automobile nation, I think the industry should pay full attention to the following four points: first, both ends of production and sales must fully understand the changes brought by the industrial Internet to the automotive industry; second, the entire industry must continue to optimize and improve China The automobile industry innovates the industrial chain system; third, companies must recognize the rapidly and continuously changing industrial ecology and rationally adjust their strategic layout; fourth, they must persist in expanding a higher level of opening up and deepening market reforms to promote mutual progress.
It is necessary to grasp the opportunity of the gradual formation of a new pattern of economic development with domestic and international double cycles as the main body, and fully realize that the automobile industry is an important carrier for expanding domestic cycles and realizing domestic and international double cycles. The dual cycle will surely promote further growth in the automotive market.
It is worth noting that electrification, intelligence, and networking will accelerate the transformation and upgrading of China’s auto industry; new energy vehicles will accelerate the transition from policy-driven to market-driven, usher in sustained and rapid growth, and accelerate China’s transformation The automobile power is striding forward to the goal of automobile power.
02
The “new four modernizations” of automobiles will change from an abstract trend to a visible large-scale industrial action
Zhang Jinhua, Executive Vice President and Secretary-General of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China
"Anxiety and panic, dawn and joy" is the common mental journey of Chinese Autobots in 2020."The mountains and rivers are nowhere to be seen, and there is another village in the shadows of the sky" is the most true portrayal of China's auto industry in 2020. The extraordinary year of 2020 will eternally carry the history of industrial development and strengthen the confidence in building a powerful automobile nation.
2021 A new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation will comprehensively reshape the technological and ecological pattern of the global automotive industry. Electricity, intelligence, connectivity and sharing will change from abstract trends to visible large-scale Industry action.
Electricity promotes the low-carbon transformation of energy and power systems. The total carbon emissions of the automobile industry is ahead of the national carbon emission reduction commitments, and will reach the peak in advance around 2028. By 2035, the total carbon emissions will be reduced by 20% from the peak. We have a very important goal. Among them, the most obvious trend is the increase in sales of new energy vehicles. According to current forecasts, new energy vehicles will continue to usher in high growth, and sales are expected to reach 1.8 million in 2021. Many mainstream multinational auto companies have stepped up their plans for electrification. As the world's largest new energy vehicle market, China will also lead the development of global electrification to a certain extent.
Intelligentization has profoundly changed the structure and functions of automobiles. In the past, automobiles were often attributed to the attributes of transportation. With the deepening of intelligence, people have given them more attributes, and automobiles have become the carriers of life for people to travel. With the advent of the 5G era, the intelligent nature of cars will become more apparent, and even force car companies and the upstream and downstream ecological chains to produce a series of changes. For example, automotive chip research and development will become more and more important.
Networking transforms cars into the core node of the Internet of Everything. The C2X era has become a real life scenario, and the path of autonomous driving will become clearer. The further establishment of a smart car travel system to form a deep integration of automotive transportation, energy, and city ecology is that our smart connected cars will be committed to creating an ecological environment of smart cities, smart transportation, smart energy, and smart cars, rather than Separately emphasize cycling intelligence. And sharing is reconstructing the new ecology of the auto industry, and even changing consumers' car buying habits.
03
Price war is the focus Smart war is the highlight Brand war is the focus The situation can be summarized from four aspects: First,The automobile industry will play a newer role in the development of the national economy. In the past, the automobile industry has become a pillar industry for the development of the national economy due to the length of the chain. Now the automobile industry has become a new pillar for stimulating domestic demand and promoting growth with the width of the chain, especially for the growth of new industries other than traditional automobiles. In the future, automobiles will play a more important role in the development of the national economy based on the length and breadth of the industrial chain.
Second, the auto industry will enter a new stage of competition. For new energy and smart cars, 2021 is a particularly critical year for competition, and three important changes will occur: the era of high prices for new energy will gradually go away; the smart battle will become a new bright spot; the industry will enter new Brand war.
Third, the rise of new forces. In the course of the development of China's automobile industry, the earliest new force is foreign investment, and then the growth of independent brands. Entering the development stage of new energy vehicles, new cross-border forces have become a non-negligible role in driving the rapid growth of the industry. In 2021, another group of new forces will enter the industry. They are born in harder technology, either from information technology companies, semiconductor companies, or total solutions companies, or digital technology companies. These new forces are fundamentally different from the past new forces in terms of technology, innovation, and development and growth genes. These new auto forces from across the border will become a beautiful landscape for the development of China's auto industry in 2021. Their growth will to a large extent further change the development pattern of the global automotive industry.
Fourth, the development policy of the automobile industry, especially new energy vehicles, will show the characteristics of the policy chain. New energy vehicle subsidy policy + "dual points" policy + carbon policy will become an important policy combination for accelerating the transformation of China's auto industry to electrification and low carbon. The framework effect of the policy mix in 2021 will be further highlighted.
In 2020, the world will be in an uncertain environment of the epidemic. China's auto industry can take the lead to recover and achieve growth against the trend. We are likely to become the leader of the global auto industry in 2021.
04
Passenger cars will achieve 10% growth, commercial vehicles will grow slightly
National Information Center Xu Changming, deputy director
Comprehensive judgment,The auto market should be able to achieve a 10% growth in 2021, and the overall commercial vehicle growth will be slightly higher than in 2020. The development trend of my country's auto market depends on two factors: one is the law of long-term development, and the other is short-term factors in 2021. The long-term development law is the change process of the automobile penetration rate. From the development law, in the next few years, the automobile market will generally be a moderately slow development trend.
The reason for this basic judgment is mainly because the leading countries in the global auto market are significantly different before 150 per 1,000 people and after 150 per 1,000 people. Before 150 vehicles per 1,000 people, all leading countries developed relatively fast, and the overall speed after 150 vehicles per 1,000 people was slower than before 150 vehicles per 1,000 people. However, the situation in each country is different. Countries with an equal income distribution will develop relatively quickly after 150 vehicles per 1,000 people, and countries with large income gaps will be popularized relatively slowly after 150 vehicles per 1,000 people.
From the perspective of 150 cars per thousand people, it means that if one family of 4 people is a family, 150 cars per thousand people means that there are 150 cars in 250 families, which means that if there are 100 families, it is 60. Cars. From the perspective of most countries, after 150 cars per thousand people, the latter half of a country’s households begin to popularize cars. If the income gap is large, a lot of the income will be taken by high-income families, and the latter half of families will be relatively slow to popularize cars. In our country, the income gap is relatively large. In the future, our automobile popularization process should be slower than the leading countries.
my country reached 150 cars per 1,000 people in 2019, but there are many special factors in 2021 that make the development of the auto market much higher than normal. In fact, there are two favorable factors in 2021. One is that everyone’s consideration of travel safety may continue for some time due to the epidemic, and everyone’s enthusiasm for buying cars will be relatively high; the second is that as the economy continues to recover this year, some people are in trouble. Workers in the service industry, their income will increase. People in these industries generally buy a car at a relatively low price. Therefore, in 2021, the recovery of low-priced models brought about by this part is a positive factor for 2021.
05
second-hand car transaction volume will increase by 15% to 17 million
Shen Jinjun, president of China Automobile Dealers Association
With the support of a series of preferential policies,Efforts to resume work and production. Entering the third quarter, the market's vitality continued to increase, starting from August to maintain double-digit growth for four consecutive months, closing the annual decline to less than 4%.
It is worth noting that, according to statistics released by the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, the number of motor vehicles in the country in 2020 will reach 372 million, of which 281 million are cars. From surpassing the United States in 2009 to become the world's largest country in terms of production and sales, to 2021 again surpassing the United States to become the world's largest country in terms of reserves, and will continue to be maintained in the future. The world's largest stock market has positively changed the Chinese auto market. Among them, second-hand cars will become direct beneficiaries.
In 2021, China's second-hand car industry will usher in new development opportunities. In terms of policies, the relevant departments of the State Council will continue to carry out the reform of "delegation, regulation and service" in the field of second-hand car circulation. Revise the laws and regulations including the "Measures for the Administration of the Circulation of Second-hand Cars," improve the management of the circulation of second-hand cars, standardize the order of second-hand car operations, promote the free circulation of second-hand cars, facilitate second-hand car transactions, and flourish the second-hand car market. Including, the state will introduce a series of policies that confirm the attributes of second-hand car products, the value-added tax rate of 2% is reduced to 0.5%, and the transaction procedures for second-hand cars can be processed in the naturalization place, which will inject new impetus into the structural adjustment and healthy development of the second-hand car market. Further smooth the domestic circulation of used cars.
With the successive introduction of relevant policies and the continuous release of benefits, when the second-hand car transaction becomes active, it will form a strong driving force for the development of the entire automobile market. The second-hand car market will become the endogenous driving force for the development of the auto market, and will effectively promote the healthy development of my country's auto market.
From the data point of view, the demand in the used car market will also pick up in the new year. It is expected that the second-hand car's annual transaction will steadily pick up on the basis of 14.34 million in 2020, and it is expected to reach it in 2021. 17 million vehicles. I believe that the market environment has improved and normal growth is in place. Coupled with the low base last year due to the epidemic, the second-hand car market will grow by about 15% next year.
06
car exports will exceed 1.15 million vehicles and set a new record
China Council for the Promotion of International Trade Automobile Industry Branch Chairman, China International Chamber of Commerce Automobile Industry Chamber of Commerce Chairman Wang Xia
In 2020,Facing the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic, China's auto exports are facing severe challenges. However, the majority of auto companies did not wait and stepped up to resume order production. The export volume of automobiles increased from 49,000 in May to 145,000 in December, a record single month high, and their comprehensive competitiveness in the international market has been rapidly improved. . Under the epidemic situation, exports from July to December 2020 tended to be relatively strong relative to the domestic market, forming a feature that foreign markets are picking up more slowly than domestic markets.
From a structural point of view, new energy vehicles will perform well in 2020, and plug-in hybrid models will also increase. This should be a remarketing product of the joint venture. The export volume of new energy buses has improved. In the first quarter of 2020, the monthly average level is 40 units. In the second quarter, the export of new energy buses increased slightly. The new energy in the third quarter was relatively large, and the fourth quarter was average.
In 2021, I believe that China's auto exports will continue to maintain this good momentum. In the context of the gradual recovery of global energy and the gradual recovery of the market, with the signing of the RCEP regional comprehensive partnership agreement, the completion of the China-EU investment agreement negotiations, and the deepening of the "Belt and Road", the external environment for China's auto exports will get better and better , The annual auto export volume is expected to make strides forward on the basis of 995,000 vehicles last year, breaking through the highest point of 1.15 million vehicles in 2018 and setting a new historical record.
It is worth noting that we have to recognize the situation of China's auto export. At present, my country's exports are still concentrated in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Chile, while exports from Iran, Mexico, and Bangladesh have suffered greater losses under the influence of the epidemic.
Compared with the previous export of Chinese brands that pay more attention to the local market and technology competition, under the current trend of anti-globalization, the exporting area’s industrial protection policies, currency exchange rate issues, and potential geopolitical crises will be elevated to More important location.
Therefore, it must be noted that under the current international situation, automobile export must have a strategy, and in-depth study of the laws of overseas markets, and at the same time, attention must be paid to the laws, policies and regulatory mechanisms of overseas markets. This is also the most important prerequisite for us to do a good job in auto export.
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