Recently, BMW Group Chairman Oliver Zipze said in an interview: "After electric vehicle has developed for about 10 years and rapidly expanded its scale, the next trend will be hydrogen energy vehicles. When hydrogen refueling station becomes more large, hydrogen energy vehicles will be the most avant-garde way of driving. ”
Previously, BMW Hydrogen Energy Technology Center announced that the start of small-scale mass production of hydrogen energy batteries, and the coating workshop located at BMW's Leipzig factory in Germany is testing engine equipment that uses both hydrogen and natural gas . BMW iX5 Hydrogen hydrogen energy vehicle will be put into use by the end of this year.
. What is a hydrogen energy vehicle?
Compared with electric vehicles, hydrogen energy vehicles may not be well-known to the public. In fact, hydrogen energy vehicles are no longer cutting-edge science and technology, and have been put into testing and mass production in various countries. Taking Shanghai, my country as an example, the number of hydrogen-energy vehicles has exceeded 1,500.
When it comes to hydrogen energy vehicles, we have to mention Japanese Toyota .
In the 1990s, the oil crisis of broke out repeatedly. Japanese cars, known for their fuel efficiency, were unwilling to control Japan's important automobile industry. Japan is scarce in land and resources, and there is almost no stock of oil, lithium ore, cobalt ore, and nickel ore, and more than 90% of coal, oil and natural gas are imported.
In order to get rid of resource dependence and achieve overtaking, Japan's Toyota chose hydrogen, the most common element in the universe, as the direction of technological progress in the next hundred years.
In 1994, Toyota launched its first hydrogen energy concept model.
In 2014, Toyota launched the world's first mass-produced hydrogen energy vehicle MIRAI. In 2021, MIRAI sold more than 5,000 units. In 2022, Toyota announced the import of 111 MIRAIs in China, with a market-suggested starting price of 748,000 yuan.
After nearly 30 years of research and development, Toyota has held more than 5,000 hydrogen fuel cell patents, ranking first in the world.
Why did Toyota choose hydrogen, a new energy source? In addition to abundant reserves, hydrogen energy has three major advantages: primary energy, high energy density and strong cold resistance.
As we all know, electrical energy is a process energy source. As an energy storage device, the lithium battery itself cannot generate electricity. It relies on the external voltage to make lithium ion move back and forth at the positive and negative electrodes of the battery to charge and discharge. In short, it takes a while for an electric car to run.
. The hydrogen fuel cell does not need to be charged, and only hydrogen is needed to ensure sufficient power. is similar to current fuel vehicles. Hydrogen energy vehicles only need to wait 5 minutes at the hydrogen refueling station to fill.
In addition, hydrogen energy has high energy density. "At present, the energy density of lithium ions in ternary lithium batteries is about 1.08MJ/Kg (theory). If you want to improve it, you can only rely on all-solid-state lithium batteries. The energy density of hydrogen is 143MJ/Kg, which is 130 times that of existing lithium batteries (electrolytes)."
Therefore, the range of hydrogen energy vehicles is extremely excellent, even exceeding that of most fuel vehicles. In 2021, Toyota MIRAI drove 1,359.89 kilometers in a single time, setting a Guinness World Record and becoming the world's longest-lived hydrogen energy vehicle.
not only that, hydrogen fuel cell has strong cold resistance . Even if it drives under meteorological conditions of minus 20 to 30 degrees Celsius, the range will not be significantly reduced. Current electric vehicles are driving under low temperature conditions and their battery life will be greatly reduced.
. Why has hydrogen energy vehicles not become mainstream?
Single-view of the advantages, hydrogen energy vehicles are indeed much better than the popular fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.
However, why did hydrogen energy vehicles not become the mainstream, but electric vehicles became the future development direction of various countries and car companies?
In May 2022, Musk, founder of Tesla , said in an interview: "I have been asked about hydrogen energy more than 100 times, maybe 200 times. Everyone needs to know that if humans are looking for a new way to store energy, hydrogen is the worst choice."
At present, there is only one biggest difficulty encountered by hydrogen energy vehicles - the cost.
first is the production cost.
At this stage, hydrogen production mainly relies on electrolytic water to produce hydrogen. Dongwu Securities research report data shows that the cost of hydrogen production in my country is 30-40 yuan/kg.
converted into electric energy, and hydrogen fuel cell cost is relatively high, basically reaching 2 yuan/Wh. And in 2021, the industry average cost of lithium iron phosphate battery It is 0.65 yuan/Wh, and the cost of ternary lithium batteries is 0.9 yuan/Wh.
Compared with the already large-scale lithium battery industry, the cost of hydrogen fuel cells is relatively expensive.
followed by consumption costs. The expensive production cost of
will inevitably be transmitted to downstream consumers.
At present, even if the national subsidies are included, the current hydrogenation price of hydrogen refueling stations has reached 50-100 yuan per kilometer of hydrogen, and the cost of ordinary hydrogen energy vehicles is about 50-100 yuan per kilometer of 100 kilometers for ordinary electric vehicles is 7.8 yuan to 26 yuan.
finally is the infrastructure cost. In terms of transportation, considering the safety and cost of liquid hydrogen , hydrogen compression bottles are still used for transportation. , an ultra-large truck with a capacity of 40 tons, can only transport 400 kilograms of hydrogen in one trip. data shows that the domestic hydrogen transportation pressure is 20MPa, and when the transportation distance is 100km, the transportation cost is 8.66 yuan/kg; when the distance is 500km, the transportation cost soars to 22 yuan/kg. The pipeline transportation cost is only 1.2 yuan/kg, but the investment per kilometer of pipeline is about 5.84 million yuan. Yuan. In terms of
construction, the investment of a hydrogen refueling station in is in the tens of millions. A hydrogen refueling station with a gas refueling level of 500KG per day has a construction cost of about 12 million to 18 million, more than three times that of gas stations for fuel vehicles.
, BMW Group Chairman Oliver Zipze also emphasized in an interview that "when hydrogen refueling stations become more large", hydrogen energy vehicles will be the most avant-garde driving method.
At the moment when the hydrogen energy network has not been completed, my country's choice of electric vehicles based on National Grid is adapting to the national conditions .
. Is there a future for hydrogen energy vehicles?
With the vigorous development of my country's electric vehicle industry, a huge and vibrant industrial chain has quietly formed. A large number of upstream and downstream electric vehicle upstream and downstream enterprises have gained a foothold in the market with mature products, and many enterprises have even gone overseas to expand the market with unique advantages.
A few days ago, many upstream and downstream enterprises of electric vehicle announced their third quarter financial reports.
CATL 2022 third quarter financial report showed that revenue in the first three quarters was 2103. 400 million yuan, increased by 186.72% year-on-year, of which the revenue in the third quarter was 97.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232.47%; the net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters was 17.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.95%, of which the net profit attributable to shareholders in the third quarter was 9.424 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 188.42%.
Great Wall Motors 2022 third quarter financial report shows that the net profit in the third quarter was 2.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.74%; the revenue was 37.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.36%.
Tianli Lithium Energy 202 The third quarter financial report of the second year showed that the operating income in the first three quarters was 1.939 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.93%; the net profit attributable to shareholders was 158 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 290.34%.
fuel cell membrane electrode supplier "Hongji Chuangneng" completed a round B financing with a scale of about 300 million yuan and a pre-investment valuation of about 3 billion yuan, doubled from the previous round of valuation.
BYD Yuan PLUS pre-sale price in Germany was 38,000 euros (about 270,000 yuan), and the pre-sale price of Han and Tang models in Germany was 72,000 euros (about 500,000 yuan), which is twice the domestic price. The price of the model is even higher than the price of luxury traditional fuel vehicles such as Mercedes-Benz GLC and E-class.
Is there any future for the rising electric vehicles, hydrogen energy vehicles with clear advantages and disadvantages?
In 2020, my country became the world's largest hydrogen producer, and the hydrogen production in 2021 has exceeded 33 million tons.
As of October 2022, 29 provinces, cities and autonomous regions have announced hydrogen-related policies in hydrogen energy . There are more than 3,900 related enterprises in hydrogen energy . policy support from various places may help hydrogen-energy vehicles become the next trend.
