Just a few days ago, Volkswagen Group’s 68th round of group planning was officially released.
In the plan, Volkswagen Group has vowed to determine a new round of five-year investment plan from 2020 to 2024 — Volkswagen hopes to invest nearly 60 billion euros in hybrid and electric vehicles in the next five years And digital R&D. Of the 60 billion, about 33 billion euros were spent on "pure electric" alone.
In the last five-year plan recently, Volkswagen has announced that the investment amount in electric vehicles, autonomous driving, network and mobile services is 44 billion euros. This new plan is all at once. It rose by about 40%...
What is the concept of 600 billion? This is equivalent to more than 40% of all real estate, plant and equipment investment and total research and development costs of the Volkswagen Group in the next 5 years.
In the context of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Bosch, and Continental are announcing their respective layoffs and spending reduction plans, all of the above gives people a sense of "not bad money". .
Where does this money come from? Volkswagen is unclear...
Figure: The specific distribution of Volkswagen Group’s 60 billion euro investment by 2024
4da1a1a#04a#Can the Volkswagen Group and the boss Diss really go against the market and make the country rich? The real mystery was revealed before a week.
壹
The overall crisis in the automotive industry, Volkswagen can not escape the curse
大0 The management headed by Group Chief Executive Herbert Diess and CFO Frank Witter admitted in a conference call with analysts on Monday that the Group will be more cautious about the prospects for next year. Sales and profit growth will be lower than the original plan .
Volkswagen Chief Financial Officer, Frank Witter (Frank Witter) predicts that next year (2020) revenue and profit will be lower than previous expectations, Therefore, Volkswagen Group will reduce 2020 Sales and profit targets.
This means that the high-profile all-weather business of Volkswagen, the world's largest automaker, cannot escape the curse of weakness in the industry. Earlier this week, the market value of Wolfsburg's stock dropped significantly, and it has already begun to show its signs.
Diss said that there will be no major growth in the market next year, and some markets may even continue to fall. CFO Witte said that the economic conditions of the auto market have changed and the good days are over. The mid-term business plan will be updated annually for Volkswagen based on the results of the five-year investment plan decided by the group last Friday. Volkswagen hopes to publish its regular outlook for 2020 in its annual report in March next year.
Volkswagen’s adjustment this time is in response to the joke: the operation is as fierce as a tiger, and it is still in place. Will the always strong masses really fall down and compromise with reality?
Picture: Frank Witter (Frank Witter) Volkswagen CFO has set new goals for 2020
贰
Heaven’s Pride Come to the last challenge?
The weak situation is in stark contrast to the previous performance of the Volkswagen that has been attacking cities and looting.
On the day of the conference call, Volkswagen’s preferred stock fell in the late afternoon, a decline of about 2.7%, to 178.54 euros, and in early October, Volkswagen’s share price was not yet 150 Euros-The price of this stock has risen a lot in the past few weeks. In the past year, the stock price has increased by nearly 30%.
To be fair, Volkswagen’s outstanding performance has surpassed most automakers and suppliers in the industry.
One of the goals announced by President Diss when he took office was to increase the value of the stock market. Obviously, he said he did it without breaking his promise. Compared with before the Dieselgate Incident that caused the stock crash in September 2015, Volkswagen's stock value is even higher.
In terms of sales volume, according to the latest plan, Volkswagen will increase 20% in 2020 compared with 2016. In 2016, Volkswagen’s sales reached 217 billion euros, and it is estimated that the total revenue of the Volkswagen Group will reach 261 billion euros next year. (Previously, Volkswagen had expected an increase of at least 25% next year, which is about 10 billion more than the current estimate.)
Through the past few waves of god operations, people see that the president of Volkswagen Diss, like Tesla boss Iron Man Musk, is very good at using the media to help his company propagate. In addition to the high-profile tactics, the tactics such as Ming Xiu plank roads and secret crossing Chen Cang are also used in perfection. Volkswagen is becoming more and more like Tesla, more and more American.
Event review 1: In 2019, the Volkswagen Group officially entered the Diss era. In the first two weeks of March, Volkswagen President Herbert Deiss screamed in the media to promote the pure electric route, which made people confused. For a while, everyone was asking: Dess and Volkswagen’s desperate road to electrification transformation, Was it a well-thought-out Jedi counterattack or a chaos after being stimulated by the celestial dynasty? Diss even pressed on step by step, threatening to withdraw from the German Automobile Industry Association (VDA) on behalf of Volkswagen Group. The reason was unexpected. The public felt that VDA did not truly represent itself.
But in just a few days after the incident, the plot reversed. Diss made concessions and compromises. After the three major German automobile giants argued, they reached a consensus: pure electric hybrids, keeping pace with each other, and hydrogen fuel suspension (jump link).
Review 2: Anyone familiar with Volkswagen knows that the boss Diess has so far declared that he has no cold on hydrogen cars (jump link), and Volkswagen has The research report of the consulting company on the comparison of hydrogen and electricity and the obvious disadvantages of hydrogen fuel cells has been put on its official website (https://www.volkswagenag.com/de/news/stories/2019/08/hydrogen-or). -battery--that-is-the-question.html). The outside world has always simply believed that Volkswagen will only focus on battery electric vehicles (BEV) within 10 years. One stone stirred up waves, and Volkswagen’s strategic decision to fully switch to electrification in the Diss era began to arouse all parties in the German automotive industry.His verbal criticism and penalization.
But some time ago, the Volkswagen Group calmly announced to the outside world that Volkswagen is developing a third brand-new MPE platform. On this platform, fuel cell components have been directly expanded. The focus is on luxury cars and commercial vehicles.
Volkswagen hopes to meet stricter carbon dioxide emission regulations.
The maverick and gorgeous dance steps of the public are dazzling.
While many car companies are raising the downturn in the environment, Volkswagen is still starting from its own reform and trying not to be the one who destroys the environment.
Volkswagen used fraudulent software to deal with diesel engine exhaust valve incidents. So far, it has caused a total of more than 30 billion euros in losses to the group, especially the resulting remedial costs and unnecessary Devotion, but these are past tense.
Due to the stricter CO2 emission regulations of the European Union, Herbert Dis hopes to give Volkswagen a new green image and even replace the brand new car logo for Volkswagen. Diss said that in the past two years, we have been confident that we will achieve our CO2 target.
The rise of electric vehicles has generally caused automakers to greatly reduce their investment in research and development of fuel vehicles. Volkswagen has stated that the last generation of the brand using internal combustion engine technology will be released in 2026. This means that the Volkswagen brand has to set an end point in advance for its own fuel vehicle era and fully shift to electric.
From the perspective of national strategy, the Netherlands, Norway, India and other countries have announced the ban on the sale of traditional fossil fuel vehicles before 2025, and countries such as the United Kingdom and France have completely banned the sale of gasoline from 2040. Japan has set the end of pure fuel vehicles in 2050. Although China has not announced a timetable for the ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has stated that it has initiated a plan.
As the industry trends change, electric vehicles are gradually replacing the lost share of fuel vehicles, and the future market for electric vehicles will become bigger and bigger. The wind direction has changed. When the Germans get serious and believe that the next ten years will be a small era of rapid development of electric vehicles, it may further affect the development direction of the entire global industry. The forecast of the trend has been clear, but on the issue of timing, everyone has disputes about the framework goal of electrification.
The public management staff gave their own answers in the latest plan for the next ten years, The group hopes to have up to 75 pure electric models and about 60 hybrids by 2029 Power cars are put on the market, and about 26 million electric cars are manufactured and sold. In addition, Volkswagen hopes to sell nearly 6 million hybrid vehicles by 2029.
The desperate public with electrification strategy seems to have no intention of stopping.
In the first wave of offensive, the group hopes to manufacture 20 million electric vehicles based on the modular electrical construction kit platform (MEB). The second wave of offensive came from Audi and Porsche. In order to meet the needs of more powerful vehicles (above 306 horsepower), the Premium Platform Electric (PPE) platform for luxury electric vehicles was born. Most of the other 6 million vehicles are based on high Performance PPE platform.
In just a few years, Volkswagen has stepped out of the scandal and launched a new round of assault on the next strategic basis.
Picture: FirstExecutive Officer Herbert Diess (Herbert Diess) launched the Volkswagen ID.3 series at a celebration ceremony at the Zwickau plant in Saxony, Germany. Volkswagen plans to sell 26 million electric vehicles by 2029.
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The proud son of heaven ushered in the final challenge?
众 In the face of multiple challenges, resolutely promote transformation
Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Dis said:
"In the next few years, we will accelerate the pace of investment again." The boss of Volkswagen said that the hybrid power, electrification and digitalization of the fleet have become "more and more important points"
They want to take advantage of economies of scale and maximize synergy.
However, the transformation of the new four modernizations of car companies requires real money to smash in, which is why other car companies have tightened their belts for the winter. In order to prepare for the tens of billions of dollars required for transformation and new technologies, Volkswagen must inevitably cut down on food and clothing in all aspects and plan carefully. Of course, the most effective means is to reduce working hours and moderate layoffs.
The reality that can be seen is sluggish sales growth, and the expected sales profit next year will also decrease. Although the return target for pre-tax and income not included in special items is still 6.5% to 7.5%, operating profit due to weak sales growth is now only a quarter of 2016, so Volkswagen expects next year’s The profit was 18.2 billion euros-according to the old plan, it should be at least 19 billion euros.
In order to realize the transformation, the investment in a number of factories in the short term also dragged down Volkswagen’s performance:
The military action was heavily influenced by criticism from the international community, and Volkswagen’s plan to set up a new factory near Izmir, Turkey was shelved.
In addition, Passat (Passat) and Skoda Superb (Skoda Superb) produced in Emden will be transferred to the planned new plant. From 2022, Emden will begin production of the electric A-SUV (ID.Next) that will be mysteriously unveiled at the IAA in Frankfurt.
In Germany, electric vehicles will be produced in Zwickau, Emden, Hanover, Zuffenhausen and Dresden.
Among them, the Volkswagen plant in Zwickau has taken the lead in the "electric offensive". In early November, it started to produce the first model ID.3 of the all-electric ID series. The entire site will be converted from a traditional internal combustion engine to a purely electric drive. The entire conversion cost is estimated to be approximately 1.2 billion euros. The factories in Emden and Hanover will be "renovated" at a cost of more than 1 billion euros (approximately 1.5 billion euros).
Of course, there is also a lot of investment in China.
Foshan and Anting are preparing for electric production together with Chinese joint venture partners FAW and SAIC.
In the future, Mlada Boleslav’s Skoda plant in the Czech Republic will also produce electric vehicles. In addition, an American plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, U.S.A. will also build a plant worth about 800 million yuan. US dollar (about 726.7 million euros) electric vehicle assembly line.
Investment spurs transformation, and Volkswagen’s road to electrification is on the line, and there is no way out.
Looking at the world, the total investment in the field of electric vehicles has been announced by global car companies at about 91 billion US dollars (about 617.38 billion yuan). Among them, one third comes from Volkswagen Group. And Volkswagen invested nearly half of its funds into the Chinese market.
Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess (Herbert Diess) The future will depend on the Chinese market. This seems to represent the voice of the whole world.
In 2018, the German automobile industry produced 16.4 million passenger cars worldwide, of which 11.2 million were sold overseas. Generally speaking, nearly one-fifth of the cars produced in the world each year have "German descent".
Also in 2018, Germany’s largest Volkswagen Group sold 10.83 million new cars worldwide, of which 4.2 million were delivered to Chinese consumers, accounting for its global sales 38.9%. Volkswagen also has an ultra-high market share of 17% in the Chinese market.
But now, regarding China's profit prospects, Volkswagen is now becoming more cautious. For more than a year, China, the most important single market, has been weak, and Volkswagen has naturally taken the brunt as the market leader of German-based China.
For a long time, Volkswagen has only included the proportional profits of Chinese joint ventures in its financial performance, and not in sales and operating profits. Although Volkswagen is richer than many competitors, as Witter admitted, the Wolfsburg headquarters had high hopes for the Chinese market next year, because it is well known that the Chinese market accounts for the core of Volkswagen passenger cars. About half of the brand's total delivery volume, accounting for about 40% of the group's total delivery volume, but all of this now seems to be illusory.
In addition, the revenue plan of the Audi brand, a premium subsidiary of the group, is also confusing. CTO Witte said that to achieve the current goals next year will be even more difficult, and may not be enough to make the final sales return rate of 9% to 11%. Audi has also suffered from declining sales this year and is currently behind rivals Mercedes-Benz and BMW. These factories are not fully utilized, which makes Ingolstadt's cost increasingly higher. In April 2020, former BMW executive Markus Duesmann will be the new CEO of Audi.
Although Volkswagen’s capital investment seems to be progressing well so far, it seems to be becoming more and more efficient. But what cannot be ignored is the high R&D costs required for transformation-the "hope" rests on bringing more innovations, not just the intricate administrative expenditures as always.
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The proud son of heaven ushered in the final challenge?
大 The fatal blow of the crowd, the old and new forces of the car meet in Germany
Last Tuesday, Tesla Chief Executive Officer Official Elon Musk announced at the highly anticipated "Golden Steering Wheel" award ceremony in Germany that Tesla plans to build a new factory and an engineering and design center near the German capital Berlin to improve Tesla's globalManufacturing network.
Tesla opened a new super factory in Europe.
This news is like a shot of excitement, making the German government and the people cheer for it, but more like one The bowl of ecstasy soup made the German car bosses at a loss and trembling.
Volkswagen’s comprehensive electrification strategy is now about to face the frontal sniper of Musk’s hope star Tesla Model Y and Model 3.
Tesla's plant construction this time is the first large-scale industrial company to settle in the former East German state of Brandenburg near Berlin since 1990.
Why did Tesla choose Germany?
Why choose Brandenburg, which is close to the capital Berlin?
to explain in Musk’s original words at the event is:
" Everyone knows that German engineering technology must be outstanding. This is part of the reason why we established Gigafactory Europe in Germany.”
This sentence shows that Musk has always recognized the outstanding achievements and leadership of the Germans in the automotive industry and engineering technology. But Iron Man Musk has always been the kind of madman who likes to challenge and prove himself. His decision sounds a bit like "knowing that there are tigers in the mountains, he is inclined to go to the mountains".
But if we calm down and analyze for ourselves, we will find that this is not a hot impulse and engineer's feelings in the forehead. In fact, this is Musk’s deliberate decision. We can take Musk’s The move is regarded as an excellent move to enter the territory of its main competitor.
The interesting thing about Musk’s various grand plans is that if there is no traditional automobile industry, no classic engineering technology, these plans are like high-rise buildings without a well-founded foundation, which cannot be perfectly realized. . In order to achieve his goals, Musk needs qualified mechanics to help him transform his futuristic ideas into mass market products.
Obviously, Berlin and its surrounding areas are not the best place for the automotive industry to operate. Although BMW produces motorcycles in Berlin, Daimler has production bases both inside and outside the city, and Volkswagen has a design center in Potsdam, most of the production, engineering and design of German cars are carried out elsewhere.
Berlin has never been the “city of cars”, but it does have a thriving technology industry, and Tesla is not so much a car company as a technology company. From this point of view, Berlin is a good match for Tesla. In addition, good economic promotion and investment subsidy incentive policies also ensure the efficiency and credibility of the negotiation.
If the German industrial giant Siemens (Siemens) promised to open an innovation park in Berlin to obtain the amount of subsidies to estimate, Tesla's subsidies may exceed 1 billion euros (11 One hundred million U.S. dollars).
Tesla's march into Berlin also has some symbolic significance.
First of all, the capital Berlin is the first production base of Ford Motors in Germany in the United States. Ford Motors began to assemble Model T cars in this factory in 1926, and Americans put the assembly line Technology is brought back to the birthplace of the car.
In addition, on June 26, 1963, in front of the Schönberg City Hall in Berlin, the young American President John F. Kennedy made his famous confession: "Two thousand years ago, The most proud sentence is: &39;I am a Roman citizen&39;. Today, in this free world, the most proud sentence is: I am a Berliner." In the last sentence, Kennedy said it in German. (German: Ich bin ein Berliner). This is the emotional climax of German-American relations in the 1960s.
Berlin’s advantage is its thriving entrepreneurial culture. According to data from Deutscher Startup Monitor, 16% of German startups are located in Berlin. Only the most populous state in the country, North Rhine-Westphalia, ranks ahead of Berlin.
Regarding the number of skilled workers, Berlin has more people per 100,000 inhabitants than any German state other than Hamburg and Hesse.
It can be said that The core of the German automobile industry is shifting to the north and east, and in the near future, it A new car base will be rebuilt with Berlin as the center.
Tesla’s proposed factory will be located within the commuting distance of Poland, where labor costs are lower.
The place where Volkswagen started producing ID3 pure electric vehicles is Zwickau in Saxony near Berlin, a 3-hour drive from the capital Berlin. Saxony is a new hub for the automotive industry, and there are also BMW and Porsche factories here.
In other words, Musk regards Germany as Tesla’s next production and development base. Although facing the challenges of labor costs and other factors, it can be expected that Tesla will be A charge on the ground against a strong German challenger will do more with less. Musk seems to have made a wise and symbolic choice.
For those German car tycoons, especially the Volkswagen Group, which is undergoing a difficult transition, it is urgent to adjust the car driving and software technology and introduce new technologies. Time does not wait. At the same time, we must face up to those newcomers like Tesla, Weilai and Byton from China — Although they are not currently able to fully control the technology of mass-produced cars with stable quality, they are also not affected. Obsolete ideas and obsolete technology are bound to make innovation and change easier.
结
Deficiency , The future of the Volkswagen Group is still variable.
The revolution has not yet succeeded, comrades still need to work hard.
Volkswagen and Diss are becoming more and more American, and they are conducting high-profile pure electric transformation. Tesla and Musk are doing low-key site selection research. Taking the opportunity of the awards ceremony to calmly announce the decision and slowly move closer to the German tradition, Germany’s reaction to Tesla was very contradictory. Excitement and mania were mixed with deep anxiety.
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