In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 1.7 million or more.
Wen丨Think Tank Jun
After China's auto industry has experienced the ups and downs of the V-shaped reversal in 2020, 2021 will be unstoppable. It is worth noting that 2021 coincides with the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan for China's auto industry in the post-epidemic era. After the start of January, can the overall auto market get out of the slump and achieve positive growth this year? How will the prospects and competitive landscape of the new energy automobile industry change? In the era of smart electric vehicles, where will the competition and cooperation between Internet companies and car companies in cross-border cooperation go?
Time does not wait. Based on the above questions, starting from today, the China Automotive Thirty Think Tank officially launched the "Foreseeing 2021 | Ten Questions about Chinese Automobiles" series of interviews, inviting experts from the China Automotive Thirty Think Tanks to discuss the future pattern of Chinese cars in 2021 Pre-judge the trend. The think tank expert in this dialogue is An Qingheng, the director of the China Automotive Industry Advisory Committee and the former chairman of BAIC Group.
"China's new energy vehicles have come out of the most difficult stage." An Qingheng said.
He believes that although electric vehicles still have driving range and other issues that need to be improved to solve, the views on new energy vehicles are not very unified, and the charging infrastructure construction and other issues need to be strengthened, more and more consumers are beginning to recognize new energy vehicles.
"China's new energy vehicle level has improved rapidly, and leading companies such as Weilai and Xiaopeng have performed better and better. The electric vehicles developed and produced by state-owned enterprises such as Guangzhou Automobile and Changan have also achieved initial success. Large companies such as Horizon and Changan have also achieved initial success. The intelligent transformation of automobiles represented by successful cooperation has become an excellent opportunity for Chinese automobile brands to advance. Under this situation, rapid development of new energy vehicles is inevitable." An Qingheng said.
The first question-the big market
Think Tank: In the past three years, my country’s automobile sales were 28.08 million, 25.77 million, and 25.31 million.What is your forecast for 2021?
An Qingheng: It is normal for the Chinese auto market to pick up in 2021. China's overall economy is rising, the epidemic is under control, new energy vehicles are developing, and the level of autonomous vehicles is improving, which will inevitably promote the recovery of China's auto market.
I think: 2021 will increase production and sales compared to 2020, but the increase will not be too much, some difficulties still have to be estimated. New energy vehicles will have a large growth in 2021, and the production and sales may reach 1.7 million or more. Car sales will increase by about 4-5%, which is about 1 million more than in 2020.
Second question-new energy
Think tank Jun: In 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in my country will reach 1.3 million. What do you think of the market trend of new energy vehicles in 2021? In the specific market segment of new energy vehicles, what are the development prospects of pure electric, plug-in hybrid, extended range, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?
An Qingheng: China's new energy vehicles have come out of the most difficult stage. Although electric vehicles still have mileage and other issues that need to be improved, their views on new energy vehicles are not very unified, and the construction of charging infrastructure, etc. The problem needs to be strengthened, but more and more consumers are beginning to recognize new energy vehicles.
The level of new energy vehicles in China has improved rapidly. Leading companies such as Weilai and Xiaopeng are getting better and better. The electric vehicles developed and produced by state-owned enterprises such as Guangzhou Automobile and Changan have also achieved initial success. Large companies such as Horizon and Changan have also succeeded. The intelligent transformation of automobiles represented by cooperation has become an excellent opportunity for Chinese automobile brands to advance. In this situation, rapid development of new energy vehicles is inevitable. In particular, pure electric, plug-in hybrid and extended range will achieve greater growth.
Question 3——Tesla
Think Tank: Can Tesla still be the best in China in 2021? How will the competitive landscape of China's new energy vehicle market change?
An Qingheng: can solve Tesla's quality problems, service problems and network security problems is the key to Tesla's continued rapid development.
Fourth question-new car-building forces
Think Tank: In 2021, are there any chances for the new entrants of the new car-building forces, such as Evergrande, Byton, and FF? What challenges do leading companies such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal, and Weimar face?
An Qingheng: There are always opportunities for new entrants, but there are many uncertainties. How the development results of the above three companies may not be concluded in 2021, and it will take a longer time to test. Will it be tested for 5 years? !
The challenges faced by several leading companies are severe. Tesla, BMW, Volkswagen, domestic Guangzhou Automobile, Changan, etc. are actually challenging them, with price, intelligence level, service, safety, etc. are all challenging. But as long as you make long-term plans, make better products, stabilize your position, give play to your own advantages, and maintain the current momentum, you will surely win. I am optimistic about these companies.
Fifth question-market value and bubble What is the investment prospect of the new energy automobile industry? Is there a bubble? How much room is there for growth?
An Qingheng: Investment is not easy to control, but there are already so many companies that have started, and there are also Evergrande, Baoneng, and many newly joined Internet companies and foreign companies. It should be said that there is a lot of capital investment However, the competition is very fierce. If you want to invest in the new energy vehicle industry, you must be very cautious. In my opinion, do not say that this is a bubble lightly. The room for growth is still not small, but the survival of the fittest is an inevitable law, and the majority are eliminated in the end.
Sixth question-local capital
Think tank gentleman: Weilai and Hefei, Xiaopeng settled in Guangzhou, Zhuhai invested FF,Although there will be thunderstorms in Bo County and Sailin in 2020, local governments will continue to invest in enthusiasm. How long can the boom last?
An Qingheng: As long as the country strengthens management, the craze will soon fade away. Whoever decides who will be responsible for the end will do.
The seventh question-the battery battle
Think tank: South Korean battery companies are rapidly expanding globally, the market dominance of CATL is threatened, BYD blade battery external supply progress is slow, and China Power How does the battery industry compete with Japan and South Korea in the global competition?
An Qingheng: has its own methods.
The eighth question-Sino-foreign controversy
Think tank gentleman: The Chinese auto market is still in a period of adjustment. What do you think of the competition between Chinese brands and foreign brands? How do Chinese independent brands need to improve their strength?
An Qingheng: The strength of China's independent brands has actually been improving, but don't rush. As I said, new car-making forces have begun to participate in global competition on behalf of Chinese new energy automobile companies. Among the 30 auto companies with the highest market value in the world, 9 are Chinese companies, including NIO, Xiaopeng, and Ideal. China's new energy vehicles, represented by new car-making forces, have gradually had the opportunity to compete directly with international auto giants, and as networked and intelligent competition enters a deep stage, these companies may show stronger competitiveness.
The ninth question-stock ratio liberalization
Think tank gentleman: China expands its opening up,The joint venture share ratio will be fully liberalized in 2022. What do you think of the equity game between China and foreign countries? What does China need to do?
An Qingheng: The game of stock ratio is a game of strength between the two parties and a competition for interests. Take Beijing Jeep Automobile Co., Ltd., the first Chinese-foreign vehicle joint venture established in 1983, as an example. At that time, the Chinese side accounted for 68.65% of the shares and the US side accounted for 31.25%. Approved by the Chinese government in May 1990, the company's registered capital increased to 56.73 million U.S. dollars, with the US accounting for 38.25% and the Chinese accounting for 61.75%. At that time, China's majority shareholding ratio was not regulated by industrial policy, but was the result of negotiation between the two parties. Although the United States also wants to become a major shareholder, one is that it does not have that great strength. The other is that a major shareholder means that while gaining more benefits, it has to take on greater risks. As China's first joint venture car company, the US does not want to take too high a risk, and in order to avoid risks, the US also handed over the sales rights to the Chinese at the beginning of the joint venture. Later, the American shareholder changed to Chrysler. Due to development needs, the joint venture company’s share ratio was adjusted to 50:50 after consultation and agreement between the two parties.
In order for the Chinese to gain an advantage in the game, they must do their own thing first. Only with strength has the right to speak. Some negotiations should be entrusted to enterprises to negotiate. Negotiations must be prepared and government leaders must be cautious.
The tenth question-cross-border car building
Think tank: Geely and Foxconn have launched the foundry model. What do you think of the "foundry" of traditional car companies? In addition, Baidu teamed up with Geely to build the car in person, Ali teamed up to launch Zhiji Auto, and Huawei teamed up with BAIC Changan. The boundary of cooperation between Internet companies and car companies is becoming more and more blurred. What do you think of this cooperation model, how Internet and cars Competition and cooperation between enterprises?
An Qingheng: New things still need to be observed. Since these companies and Internet companies dare to do it, it must make sense.The market will make the final evaluation on how fast the progress is and what the result is.
Attached: China Automotive 30 think tank expert members (listed in no particular order)
Fu Yuwu Honorary Chairman of the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers
Wang Binggang Director of the Technical Committee of the National Electric Passenger Vehicle Technology Innovation Alliance
An Qingheng Director of China Automotive Industry Advisory Committee and former Chairman of BAIC Group
Zuo Yan'an Former Chairman of Jianghuai Automobile
Zhao Fuquan Dean of Tsinghua University Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy Research Institute
Shen Jinjun President of China Automobile Dealers Association_ p1p
Zhao Ying Researcher, Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Lin Lei, Partner and Managing Director of Dazheng Capital
Mei Songlin Vice President of Strategic Operations of Weimar Automobile
He Lun, China Netcom Automotive Research Institute Long
Zhong Teacher Senior automotive media person
Zhang Junyi Deputy General Manager and CSO of Smart Enterprise of Ping An Group
Liu Xiaozhi Founder and CEO of Asia Dragon Technology Co., Ltd.
Xu Xiangyang Professor of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, National Passenger Car Auto Executive Deputy Director of Transmission Engineering Technology Research Center
Cai Wei Chief Scientist, Automotive Electronic Drive Control and System Integration Engineering Research Center, Ministry of Education, Professor Tou Yan, Harbin University of Science and Technology, Founder of Jingjin Electric
Wu Songquan Senior Chief of China Automotive Technology Research Center Expert
Shi Xuesong Vice President of Tencent Car Federation and CEO of Nanjing Falcon Electronic Technology Co., Ltd.
Gu Jianmin CTO of Valeo Group China
Cui Dongshu Secretary General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee
Zheng Luo Lanbei Global Senior Partner of Grid Management Consulting Company
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