In fact, like Tesla, Milton’s dream is to rewrite the automotive industry with electricity to solve environmental problems, but what he wants to build is not cars but trucks.
transcript
▲ Trevor Milton (Trevor Milton)
In 2014, a 32-year-old American young man, Trevor Milton (Trevor Milton) founded a company: NIKOLA. When
hears the name of the company, many people may think of Tesla first, because the combination of the names of these two companies happens to be a pioneer in electrical engineering-an important promoter of electric power commercialization, Nicolas Tes The full name of Nikola Tesla.
In fact, like Tesla, Milton’s dream is to rewrite the auto industry with electricity to solve environmental problems, but what he wants to build is not cars but trucks.
Milton dropped out of high school and started a continuous business. With big dreams, Milton has the standard personality of Silicon Valley bosses in the minds of the public, and has a halo when he debuts.
Milton even claims that his own Nikola Company has mastered the hydrogen energy battery technology that the industry is difficult to overcome.
In 2018, Nikola unveiled its zero-emission, hydrogen energy concept electric truck. The most important thing is that they also released a video of dozens of seconds of driving in the mountains. As soon as the video of
came out, the entire industry exploded and pre-orders flooded in. At that time, Nikola Company claimed that the final pre-sale reached 12 billion US dollars .
At the same time, they have also brought in partners such as Bosch and GM, so Nikola has also received a 20 billion investment, including 9 billion in cash.
In June of this year, Nikola went public with a high profile. Since then, the stock price has soared. Soon the market value exceeded 35 billion US dollars , and it surpassed the century-old American car company Ford.
However, just 3 months later, Nicholas's stock price plummeted due to suspected fraud, CEO Milton announced his resignation and a series of incidents, which led to a full investigation of the company.
In this way, this investor’s once-popular hot chicken, the Tesla of the truck industry, instantly became the Luckin of the truck industry.
So the problem is coming. Anyway, you have also drunk Luckin’s coffee and enjoyed his discount. Nicholas has never delivered a car. Why is the investor so stupid that he has produced more than 2.4 million vehicles per year. Ford's valuation of the car?
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Innovative electric vehicle companies frequently produce
. The dark horse in the industry
If you compare Nicholas with traditional car companies, you will think its entrepreneurial story is crazy. But if you put it in an electric car company, it is at best a regular case. For example, the familiar domestic electric car company: Weilai Automobile . From its listing two years ago to the end of October this year, the share price of
Weilai Automobile has doubled five times. Just entering November, the stock market is going up again. Now, the market value of NIO's not only surpasses Ford, but also surpasses BMW and General Motors.
, for example, the Xiaopeng car , which went on the market just a few months ago, has a market value of that is close to the Ford .
and the American electric truck company Hyllion, since its listing at the beginning of last month, the stock price of has gone from 10 US dollars per share to more than 40 US dollars.
The entire trolley field is so smooth in terms of capital, and it is all related to one company, that is, the leader of the trolley industry: Tesla.
In 2004, Musk, who had not yet succeeded in launching a rocket, decided to invest in an electric car company that was "quickly" with funds-Tesla. It took a year for Tesla to finally build the first test car. Until 2007, Tesla built a total of 26 prototype cars.
Tesla only started mass production of cars in 2008. The model of at the time was to book first without a car and then manufacture it.. This has also become the classic mode of operation of electric vehicles, including the previous Nikolai model.
However, Tesla was not well received back then. In the years after the first mass production of cars, Tesla has been struggling on the verge of bankruptcy, relying on crazy layoffs, borrowing money and debt financing to survive the difficult period. Time. In 2010, when Tesla conducted an IPO, the price per share was only $17.
In the past few years, Tesla has started to turn around. Especially this year, the stock price has been less than US$100 per share, and has been above US$400 now, and even challenged US$500 at one time. The market value of
not only lags behind Ford, General Motors and other American car companies, but also surpasses Toyota and Volkswagen.
Today's Tesla is not only the world's highest market value electric car, but also the highest market value of car manufacturer , with a market value of more than $400 billion .
Investors who were ignorant of Tesla back then, I don’t know if they regret it now...
However, according to the current Tesla stock price and valuation so high, it is no longer a good investment target, many Investors who want to seize the trend of electric cars have set their sights on rising stars. In their minds, will Nikola, who has no products, be the next Tesla?
Because of the large amount of capital sought after, the stock prices of all electric car companies have gone up.
Then the question comes again. If Nicolas's valuation is normal in electric vehicles, is the valuation of the entire emerging electric vehicle industry reasonable? Is there a bubble?
Here is a special note. We are talking about the new automakers that have been innovative in recent years and only produce electric vehicles.
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7zSoaring market valuation:
electric vehicle development takes off or landed
According to our previous analysis, the market’s valuation of the rising electric vehicle is actually benchmarking the industry leader, Tesla. Therefore, we will focus on to look at Tesla's valuation of .
just said that Ford’s annual output is 2.4 million vehicles, GM’s is nearly 2.9 million, and Tesla’s goal this year is 500,000. The gap between
is very obvious, but the valuation on the stock market is more fancy potential , is the future car-making ability, or the ability to make money.
So the key lies in Tesla's future growth. We consider this growth in a 10-year timeline, and it is still long enough.
First of all, let’s take a look at the future market potential of electric vehicles. The Boston Consulting Group has a report at the beginning of this year. The report predicts that in 2030, the proportion of electric vehicles in the global automotive market will reach 51%, which means it will become mainstream. .
This is still quite a positive and bold forecast for the electric vehicle market, because last year, according to a report by the International Energy Agency, the global sales of electric vehicles in the entire automobile market accounted for only 2.6%. Looking at the next 10 years, there is a chance that nearly 20 times. There are three main reasons why
is so optimistic:
first is that many countries now have subsidies and other related support policies for electric vehicles, and second is that more and more countries have emission reduction requirements, which will restrict the sales of traditional gasoline vehicles. , Z6z and the third is that the technology of electric vehicles is constantly improving, the performance of limited flight time will be strengthened, the cost will be reduced, and the experience will be better and better.
According to the data of the rating company Fitch, referring to the new car sales data for the whole year of 2019, a total of 77.5 million units were sold. In other words, in 2030, the global sales of electric vehicles can reach nearly 39 million units. Is this number still More optimistic.
Although there has been a downward trend in car sales in the past two years, we can still judge that electric vehicles are indeed a huge potential stock.
In addition, there is another question, which is whether the innovative electric car factory represented by Tesla will eat up the dividends of this wave of growth?
First of all, TeslaIt has been maintaining a very high growth rate. Five years ago, its annual production capacity was only 50,000 units, but last year it climbed to 368,000 units. The production volume this year is expected to be 500,000 units. The is equivalent to a full increase in 5 years. 10 times .
Secondly, Tesla has increased by 36% compared with last year. The output has always been very amazing, but can this number be maintained? Can it drive the entire electric vehicle industry to "take off" together?
Last year, among the 2.1 million electric vehicles sold worldwide, 368,000 units were from Tesla, which accounted for 17.5% of the market.
So in 2030, if Tesla maintains the same growth rate as the electric vehicle industry, it means that Tesla's annual output will reach 6825 million units. The number of
is twice the annual output of GM and Ford, but it is still lower than Toyota, which is now only half of Tesla's valuation, and Toyota's annual output exceeds 10 million units.
Of course, judging from the latest quarterly data, Tesla’s operating margin (Operating Margin) is indeed higher than that of Toyota. It can now reach 9.2%, while Toyota only has less than 6%. At the same time, Toyota sells an average of The price of a car is also much lower than Tesla.
If this is the case, we can say that Tesla's valuation is still within a reliable range.
So, can Tesla reach 6.825 million units?
In fact, Tesla’s annual output this year is 500,000. This is mainly due to the fact that the Shanghai factory has been put into production, which can now produce 250,000 units per year.
If Tesla wants to increase from 500,000 units to the 6.825 million units we just calculated in the next 10 years, then in the next 10 years, Tesla needs to open about 25 factories of the same size.
Judging from the current speed of Tesla's factory opening, the first factory was opened in 2010, the second in 2013, and the third was opened in Shanghai last year. Next year, one will be opened in Berlin, Germany and one in Austin, USA. The factory in Berlin, Germany, has been under construction since 2015. It seems that the process is not so smooth and simple. So everyone can feel the feasibility of Tesla's growth to 6.825 million units in 2030, so Inference is almost impossible.
If it is difficult for Tesla to keep up with the demand of the entire electric vehicle market, can other electric vehicle innovation companies that follow the trend meet the demand or growth goals of the electric vehicle industry?
This has to enter our next question: Are traditional car companies really completely inactive? Is there really no opportunity for the development of the electric vehicle market at all? In other words, is it so easy for an electric vehicle innovation company to overtake a corner?
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The key to survival of innovative car companies:
The balance between production and technology
First, let’s take a look at Tesla’s supply chain structure. The battery link is dominated by Japanese manufacturers. The core hardware such as chips and millimeter wave radars are European and American manufacturers. Support-oriented, the most critical BMS (battery management system), motor control and other control technologies are independently developed by Tesla.
That is to say, in the development of electric vehicles, Tesla is responsible for how to make Japanese batteries support European and American chips to achieve the purpose of running longer.
From this point of view, building a car is really not an easy task. This is why Apple and Dyson and other big companies have tried to build cars and finally gave up.
In fact, the car manufacturing process is very complicated, involving thousands of parts, and the suppliers who provide the parts are not the same, which means that integration ability and 's ability to control the entire supply chain is the car manufacturing process The most challenging. The advantages of traditional car companies are mainly that they already have a ready-made production industry and have a mature supply chain. These advantages are difficult for electric vehicle innovation companies to quickly establish.
I have a friend of a certain electric car in China. He mentioned: The thorny problem they often encounter with parts is the best car zero in The products of each supplier are basically monopolized by a few big brands, and even signed all orders to them a few years ago. With , the first problem is that they do not have the extra productivity to provide you with new products. The second problem is that they have very large requirements on the scale of the order, which the new factory cannot meet.
In the tram market, every manufacturer has a layout. In the past, it may not be so ambitious. First, the market "plate" is not that big. The traditional big car companies have not yet reached the best time to enter. In terms of overall industry development, the technology of trams is far from mature.
However, with the development of the electric vehicle market, traditional car companies will certainly enter on a large scale. The technology part, whether it is self-developed or realized through the acquisition of innovative technologies, is very maneuverable.
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7zElectric Vehicle Company:
"Leek Harvester" during the epidemic period
Of course, any market, especially when there is a new market, will give newcomers opportunities, but under the enthusiasm of electric vehicles, the possible growth dividend is very difficult and has been innovated. The electric car company in China took it, , and there is still a high probability that a large part of the opportunity is in the hands of traditional car companies.
Of course, there are some voices who believe that the high valuation of Tesla and other electric vehicles is for unmanned driving .
To put it simply, the technology of unmanned driving has not been verified, just as we have not seen Nicholas’s car, the risk itself is great; in addition, the key to the development of unmanned vehicles or the popularization of is not yet It lies in the technological development of private companies, but the formulation of future policies. This part of the uncertainty is very, very large, and it is difficult to serve as a rational support for current valuation.
So, why is there such a surge in prices, are investors all that stupid? One point that everyone needs to pay attention to is that the time of this wave of price increases was after the outbreak of the new crown in the United States. It was concentrated in the US capital market, which happened to be the period when a series of new loose monetary policies were introduced in the United States.
After various "releases", coupled with the fact that gambling was suspended before, most people are isolated at home and there is no place to spend money and other practical reasons, this has led to a large number of retail investors starting to trade in stocks.
Both institutions and individuals have a lot of funds flocking to the stock market. There is always room for this money to be invested, so it is necessary to find growth points .
Affected by the epidemic, whether it is traditional industries, or many industries including aviation, tourism, and service industries, the performance is sluggish, and the data of traditional car companies has been declining in the past two years. Therefore, is right now. Providing a good growth stock market for Tesla and other electric car brands, it has naturally become the most attractive force for capital.
Of course, there are many investors who think Tesla’s stock price is not so reliable. For example, I have bought its stocks, but I think that in this trend, follows the trend to do short-term trading , long-term Valuation is not important, there are still many opportunities in the short term. The last category of
is FOMO (fear of missing out) and , especially for many retail investors. Seeing that the stock price rises well, they will chase after buying, worrying about "missing 100 million".
I think the tide will rise and fall. The short-term capital market is passionate and emotional, but in the long run, we can still see the return of real value.
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