(Report Producer/Analyst: Oriental Fortune Securities Zhou Xuhui )
1. Development History of Humanoid Robots
The history of humanoid robots can be traced back to the design of Italian scientist Leonardo da Vinci in 1495. The first humanoid robot uses wind energy and water power as the driving force, and uses gears as the driving device, allowing the robot to wave its arms or stand.
The representative definition of modern humanoid robot was first proposed by Japanese scientists Masahiro Mori and Shuhei Ada in 1967, that is, a robot with mobility, individuality, intelligence, versatility, semi-mechanical semi-humanity, automation, slaveness, etc. 7 Flexible machine with unique characteristics.
In 1972, Waseda University Professor Kato Ichiro released the world's first full-size humanoid robot Wabot-1 with dynamic balancing capabilities. At the same time, Kato Ichiro proposed that a humanoid robot should have three elements: brain, hands, and feet; non-contact sensors (using Eyes and ears receive distant information) and contact sensors; balance and inherent sense sensors. Since then, various types of humanoid robots have sprung up.
Wabot-1 is considered the originator of humanoid robots. It was built by Waseda University professor Kato Ichiro in 1972 and is the world's first life-size humanoid robot.
Wabot-1 is able to walk on its legs, grip with its arms, and see using two cameras as eyes. This humanoid robot can communicate with people in Japanese and can judge the distance and direction of objects in its field of view while working. Some experts estimate that the machine has the mental capabilities of a one-and-a-half-year-old child. The promotion of
Wabot-1 was very limited at the time, and it took 45s to take one step. Then scientists created Wabot-2, which can engage in artistic activities. It can play the piano, read music scores, and even accompany people.
Atlas Atlas is a humanoid robot developed by Boston Dynamics assigned by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Institute. The main purpose of its initial development was for rescue and reconstruction in major disasters.
After nearly 10 years of updates and iterations, Atlas has become one of the most advanced humanoid robots in the world. It is 1.5m tall and weighs 89kg. It uses 3D printed parts to provide the power required for jumping and somersaults.
Atlas has an extremely compact mobile hydraulic system , capable of providing high output power to any of its 28 hydraulic joints for movement, and through an advanced control system for movement, Atlas can reach speeds of 9km/h.
At present, Atlas can skillfully complete vertical jumps, cross obstacles, and back flips, and gradually activate the parkour function that involves both hands and feet.
Boston Dynamics’ expectation for Atlas is to become the world’s most dynamic humanoid robot. Considering that the current price of Boston Dynamics’ low-end robots has reached US$75,000, the price of Atlas may be higher in the future.
Optimus In August 2021, Musk released concept drawings and videos of the humanoid robot Optimus at Tesla 's first AI Open Day, and it is expected to be completed in 2022, the first The version could go into production in 2023.
In June 2022, Musk stated on Twitter that Tesla would release the prototype of Optimus at the second AI Open Day.
According to the parameters officially released by Tesla, the humanoid robot Optimus is about 1.72m tall, weighs about 57kg, has a movement speed of 8km/h, can carry a load of 20kg, and can lift a weight of 4.5kg with its arms. It is mainly used for Tackle dangerous, repetitive and boring tasks.
Looking at the more detailed parameters, this robot uses lightweight materials, has a screen on the head to scan external information, has human-level hands and 2 axis feet for balance, and is equipped with a total of 40 electromechanical components throughout the body. Drivers: Arms (12 pcs), Neck (2 pcs), Torso (2 pcs), Hands (12 pcs), Legs (12 pcs).
In addition, it shares related products and technologies with Tesla electric vehicles in the chip and vision fields.
Musk mentioned in his April 2022 TED talk that the unit price of Optimus may be lower than the price of a car. Referring to the lowest price of model 3 in China at 291,000, we speculate that the price of Optimus will most likely fall in the 200,000-300,000 range, which may be much cheaper than Boston Dynamics’ Atlas.
Tesla electric cars, as a "catfish" in the automotive field, promote the electrification and intelligence process of the automotive industry. Tesla is launching the humanoid robot Optimus at this time. We believe that Optimus is likely to promote the global popularity of humanoid robots. The rapid application of humanoid robots has changed the entire ecology and market space of humanoid robots.
2. The basis for the development of humanoid robots
Robot technology is a representative of high-end intelligent equipment and high technology. Currently, many countries have used it as an important indicator to measure their own technological manufacturing capabilities. Therefore, the development of the robot industry chain is mostly supported by the state, and some major economies have even upgraded it to At a national strategic level, Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries have introduced corresponding policies to support the development of the robot industry chain.
Judging from the current industry structure, Europe, the United States and Japan are global leaders in the field of robots. Core components such as reducers and servo motors can be produced completely independently. China and South Korea follow closely behind, and the related supporting industry chains are also developing rapidly. stage.
With the support of policies and regulations in various countries and the "catfish effect" of Tesla's humanoid robots, the global humanoid robot industry chain is expected to usher in a period of vigorous development.
The world is currently facing many difficulties, and population issues are also an important part.
According to WHO survey, more than 6 million people have died due to new crown related issues in 2022, and millions more are still suffering from the long-term negative impact of the new coronavirus. At the same time, the problem of population aging is becoming more and more serious. It is expected that by 2030, one in every six people in the world will be 65 or above.
According to research by Korn Ferry and the PMI Association, in 2020, there has been a 3% gap in the global labor force, causing an output loss of 2.1 trillion; it is expected that by 2030, the gap will expand to 11%, causing a loss of 8.5 trillion. of output losses, a global GDP loss of US$345.5 billion.
We predict that in the near future, the labor gap is likely to become one of the key factors affecting global economic development, and the emergence of intelligent humanoid robots is expected to alleviate this situation.
According to a McKinsey report, it is estimated that the labor gaps in China, Indonesia and the EU will be 21.5 million people, 18 million people and 16.5 million people respectively in 2030. The global labor gap will be around 100 million people.
If we consider that 50% of the gap will be replaced by humanoid robots in 2030, there will be 50 million humanoid robots. Combined with the selling price of Tesla humanoid robots at 200,000-300,000 yuan, the market for humanoid robots will only be labor-type. The space is just over 10 trillion yuan. And as the intelligence of humanoid robots increases, the application scenarios will become more extensive, which may far exceed the market space we expected.
3. Looking for opportunities in the humanoid robot industry
It is currently difficult to obtain the costs of various parts of humanoid robots. We refer to the cost of industrial robots to find related industry opportunities.
industrial robot consists of three parts and six subsystems. The three parts are mechanical part, sensing part and control part. The six subsystems are drive system, mechanical structure system, control system, human-computer interaction system and feeling system. , robot-environment interaction system.
Judging from the cost breakdown of industrial robots, the cost proportions of reducer/servo motor/controller/body/others are 35%/20%/15%/15%/15% respectively.The three most core and most costly components of
industrial robots are reducers, servo motors, and controllers. We believe that these three blocks may also be the parts with the greatest opportunities in the humanoid robot industry chain.
In terms of body structural parts, Tesla humanoid robots advocate lightweighting, and companies that have made automotive aluminum alloy die-casting parts in the past may also have more opportunities.
In the battery section, industrial robots mostly use lead-acid batteries or nickel-metal hydride batteries. Humanoid robots will use lithium batteries due to mobility considerations. We believe that the thermal management part of lithium batteries will also have great opportunities.
Reducer refers to the intermediate mechanism that connects the power source and the actuator, and has the function of matching the speed and transmitting the torque .
can be divided into general transmission reducers and precision reducers according to accuracy. Precision reducers are widely used in high-end robots, CNC machine tools and other high-end applications due to their small return clearance, high precision, long service life, strong stability and other advantages. field.
precision reducer can be subdivided into harmonic reducer, RV reducer , cycloidal pinwheel planetary reducer , precision planetary reducer , etc. Among them, harmonic reducer and RV reducer are used in the field of industrial robots There are many applications.
Comparing the performance differences between harmonic reducers and RV reducers, we can find that harmonic reducers have a large single-stage transmission ratio, small size, small mass, high motion accuracy, and can operate normally in confined spaces and medium radiation conditions. The advantages of working are mainly used in parts with small force such as robot forearms, wrists, hands, etc.; while RV The reducer has the excellent characteristics of a large transmission ratio range, relatively stable accuracy, and high fatigue strength. Compared with the harmonic reducer, it has higher rigidity and torque carrying capacity, so it is used in heavy-load parts such as robot arms and machine bases.
Humanoid robots have more parts that need to transmit force than industrial robots, so the demand will be greater.
At present, foreign brands still occupy the leading position in domestic harmonic reducers and RV reducers.
Judging from the situation of harmonic reducers in 2021, Japanese companies Hamonoko and Xinbao occupy the first and third shares, 35.5% and 7.4% respectively. The second place is the domestic independent brand Green Harmonic , occupying 24.7% of the market share, which is 10.8pct behind Harmonica. Judging from the situation of RV reducers in 2021, Japanese companies Nabtesco and Sumitomo occupy the first and third shares, 51.8% and 4.3% respectively. The second place is the domestic independent brand double ring transmission . Occupying 15.1% of the market share, there is still a big gap with the first Nabtesco. However, with the rise of the humanoid robot market in the future, domestic independent brands are expected to seize more market shares by virtue of their industrial and technological advantages.
Domestic harmonic reducer leader Green's harmonic and RV reducer leader double-ring transmission. At the same time, at the A-share listed company level, we also recommend paying attention to Guomao Co., Ltd., Haozhi Electromechanical, Ningbo Dongli, etc., which have precision reducer production capabilities. CNTIC and other companies.
servo system is an automated control system that is composed of servo driver and servo motor. It uses the displacement, angle, and speed of the object as control variables and can dynamically track changes in the target position. It can achieve accurate, fast, and stable position control. , speed control and torque control, mainly used in industrial automation control fields that require high positioning accuracy and operating speed.
The servo motor refers to the engine that controls the operation of mechanical components in the servo system. It is a device that assists the indirect speed change of the motor and plays a key role in the servo system.
Judging from the competitive landscape of China's servo systems in 2020, foreign brands have an absolute advantage. Japan's Yaskawa , Mitsubishi , and Panasonic occupy the top three positions, with market shares of 11.3%, 10.5%, and 9.9% respectively. . Among the top ten companies, the only mainland companies on the list are Huichuan Technology and Hechuan Technology, with market shares of 9.8% and 3.0% respectively.
With the improvement of domestic industrial automation level and the arrival of humanoid robots, Inovance Technology and Hechuan Technology are expected to further increase their share in the field of servo systems.
The finger joint part of humanoid robots needs to respond quickly and carry a small load. We believe that coreless cup motors There will be strong application scenarios in this part. Coreless motors are DC permanent magnet servo and control motors, and can also be classified as micro motors . The structure of the
hollow cup motor breaks through the rotor structure of the traditional motor. It adopts an iron-core rotor. This rotor structure completely eliminates the power loss caused by the eddy current formed by the iron core . At the same time, its weight and rotational inertia Significantly reduced, thereby reducing the mechanical energy loss of the rotor itself.
Therefore, coreless motors also have three obvious characteristics:
(1) High energy conversion efficiency, its maximum efficiency is generally above 70%, and some products can reach more than 90%, while iron core motors are generally 70%.
(2) response speed is extremely fast, the mechanical time constant is less than 28 milliseconds, some products can reach within 10 milliseconds, and iron core motors are generally more than 100 milliseconds.
(3) has strong operation stability, small motor speed fluctuation, and the fluctuation can be easily controlled within 2%. At present, the high-end market of micro motors such as coreless cups is mainly dominated by Nidec. Domestic leading companies include MOONS Electric and Jiangsu Leili
Robot controllers are based on instructions and sensors A device for information-controlled robots to complete certain actions or tasks. The controller of the
robot is equivalent to the human brain. The controller of the industrial robot mainly consists of two parts. The first is the control cabinet . The control cabinet contains multiple PLC control modules, which are used to control the six-axis or N axis of the robot. axis movement. The second is the teach pendant. The teach pendant is a connector for human-machine control. It can be used for programming and sending control commands to the control cabinet to command the robot to move. As one of the core components of industrial robots, the controller is mainly controlled by foreign capital.
Judging from the competitive landscape of global controllers in 2020, the top ten suppliers account for 82% of the share, and they are all foreign brands, while domestic brands are waiting to develop.
In the robot body part, the technical barriers to structural parts are relatively low, and scale effects and cost control capabilities are more considered. Therefore, domestic casting manufacturers are expected to fully benefit.
The structural parts materials of industrial robots are mainly related to the load capacity. For robots with medium and large loads, their strength and fatigue are mainly considered, and the structural parts are mainly cast iron; small six-axis robots are more about pursuing speed, and are made of cast aluminum Mainly aluminum alloy.
humanoid robots consider flexibility more, and Tesla humanoid robots also put forward lightweight requirements, so we believe that humanoid robots will have a lot of demand for cast aluminum structural parts in the future.
Domestic Tesla has a close relationship with Xusheng Co., Ltd. in terms of aluminum die-casting. At the same time, Tuopu Group, Wencan Co., Ltd., Guangdong Hongtu , Aikedi , etc. have obvious advantages in lightweight automotive aluminum alloys. There may be very big opportunities.
4. Key companies in the industry
domestic harmonic reducer leader, with obvious R&D and technical advantages. The company was established in 2003 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2020. It is mainly engaged in the research and development, design and production of precision transmission devices.
company's business focuses on harmonic reducers, mechatronics products, rotary actuators, CNC indexing turntables, frameless motors, electro-hydraulic servo controllers, industrial automation services and other products. In 2021, the company's market share of harmonic reducers, core spare parts for industrial robots, reached 25%, ranking first among domestic companies.
has been deeply involved in harmonic transmission for 20 years and has obvious R&D and technical advantages. Under the wave of domestic substitution, the company's market share of harmonic reducers is expected to further increase.
The company's products are widely used in downstream applications and there is still room for further growth.
The company's products are widely used in high-end manufacturing fields such as industrial robots, service robots , CNC machine tools, medical equipment, semiconductor production equipment, and new energy equipment. Although downstream demand has been affected by the epidemic in the past two years, the company has continued to increase its market share through its own technological advantages.
Between 2017 and 2021, operating income increased from 170 million yuan to 443 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.05%; net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 49 million yuan to 189 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 40.14%.
company's 2022Q1 operating income and net profit attributable to the parent company were 94 million yuan and 37 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 22.08% and 2.78% respectively. The company's IPO-funded project to produce 500,000 units of harmonic reducers per year is about to be put into production. We believe that the company's size is expected to reach a higher level.
The world's leading supplier of gears, with the highest share of domestic RV reducers.
was founded in 1980 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in September 2010. The company has always focused on the R&D, manufacturing and sales of gears and their components, the core components of mechanical transmission. It is currently the world's largest professional gear product manufacturer and service provider one.
company's business is spread all over the world, and its customers include well-known domestic and foreign companies such as EF, Cummins , Caterpillar , and SAIC, FAW , BYD , etc. The world's top 500 customers account for more than 60% of sales and market share. high.
company began to develop RV reducers in 2013. After nearly 10 years of development, the company has become the supplier of RV reducers with the highest domestic share. In April 2020, the company invested 20 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary of robot reducers. , promote the industrialized development of harmonic reducers to form full-chain industrialization capabilities.
Domestic substitution and new energy are the major trends, and the company's revenue and profits are growing rapidly.
The company's products are mainly used downstream in the automotive field. The domestic automobile market experienced a downward cycle from 2017 to 2020. The company sacrificed a certain gross profit margin in the process of maintaining revenue growth, so the revenue side increased from 2.639 billion yuan to 3.664 billion yuan. Yuan, the profit side continued to decline from 243 million yuan to 51 million yuan.
In 2021, under the multiple backgrounds of accelerated domestic substitution of gears, rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, and improvement in the comprehensive strength of the company's products, it achieved operating income of 5.391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.13%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 326 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 539.22%.
will still maintain rapid growth in 2022. According to the company's 2022 semi-annual performance forecast, net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2022H1 will be 236 million yuan-256 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.15%-99.76%.
Domestic industrial control leader, in 2021, the domestic market share of servo systems will surpass foreign investment for the first time.
company was founded in 2003 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in September 2010. It mainly focuses on the research and development, production and sales of industrial automation control products. Its main businesses include general automation, elevators, new energy vehicles, industrial robots, rail transit, etc., among which General automation business revenue in 2021 was 8.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.99%, accounting for 50.06% of the company's total revenue, which is at a very high level in history. As an important part of the company's general automation business, the
servo system achieved operating income of 3.769 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 104.50%. The domestic market share reached 16.3%, ranking first in domestic share for the first time. We believe that in the stage of rapid development of robots, the company's servo systems and other products still have considerable room for growth,
performance is steadily improving, and the new energy vehicle business is expected to become a new growth engine.
The company's general automation, elevators and new energy vehicles account for more than 80% of the company's total revenue, contributing to the main revenue growth. From 2017 to 2021, the company's operating income continued to grow steadily, from 4.777 billion yuan to 17.943 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 39.21%; the net profit attributable to the parent company also performed well, growing from 1.060 billion yuan to 3.573 billion yuan. The annual compound growth rate is 35.50%.
2022Q1 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent were 4.778 billion yuan and 717 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 40.01% and 11.00% respectively. The company's new energy vehicle business mainly includes electric drive systems and power systems. In 2021, it achieved operating income of 2.992 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 171.51%.
has a solid industry position and production capacity will increase rapidly.
company was established in November 2011 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in April 2022. It is an enterprise focusing on the research and development, manufacturing, sales and application integration of industrial automation products. In 2021, the company's servo system achieved revenue of 659 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.03%, accounting for 89.72% of the company's total revenue, a year-on-year increase of 4.09pct. The servo system of
company has been deeply involved in the OEM market for many years, serving the majority of OEM customers, and has gained an excellent reputation. In 2020, the general servo market share was approximately 3%, ranking second among mainland manufacturers.
's current servo system and PLC production capacity totals 1.42 million units/set. As the IPO-raised investment projects are gradually put into production, an additional 1.49 million units/set will be added, more than doubling the production capacity.
The revenue side has grown steadily, while the profit side has been disturbed by external factors such as rising prices of raw materials and chips.
company is in good operating condition from 2018 to 2021, with operating income growing steadily upward, from 283 million yuan to 751 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 38.45%; net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 50 million yuan to 110 million yuan , the annual compound growth rate is 30.06%. Due to rising prices of raw materials and chips, net profit attributable to parent companies in 2021 will only increase by 2.80% year-on-year.
2022Q1 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 191 million yuan and 20 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +15.06% and -16.67% respectively. Currently, raw materials and chips are on a downward trend, and it is expected that the profit side may perform better in the later period.
The world's leading system-level motion control solution provider. The company was established in February 1994 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in May 2017. Its main business is controlling motors and their drive systems. In 2021, this business achieved operating income of 2.098 billion yuan, accounting for 77.30% of the total revenue.
company started from controlling motors and is customer-oriented, focusing on the development of system-level drive control systems.
company has successively acquired two internationally renowned professional motor drive controller manufacturers, AMP in the United States and T Motion in Switzerland. After more than ten years of experience accumulation, it now has multiple series and models of stepper systems, stepper servo systems, and servo systems. , universal brushless drive system and motion controller and other five major categories of platform products, which are widely used in 3C non-standard automation, battery equipment, mobile service robots, solar photovoltaic equipment and other automation application fields.
revenue and profits grew simultaneously.
During 2017-2021, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company both grew steadily.
's revenue increased from 1.628 billion yuan to 2.714 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.63%; net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 166 million yuan to 280 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.96%. Revenue and net profit attributable to parent companies in 2022Q1 were 679 million yuan and 39 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year changes of +96.44% and -31.58% respectively.
's net profit attributable to its parent company fell sharply, mainly due to the increase in anti-epidemic expenditures and the increase in the cost of newly recruited workers. The company has a wide range of downstream applications. With the improvement of downstream automation and the improvement of the company's own production capacity, the revenue and profit are expected to reach a higher level.
is the global leader in micromotors, and its business has developed in multiple dimensions.
was founded in early 1993 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2017. It is a global leader in the field of micromotors and the largest supplier of micromotors modular solutions in China, with annual motor shipments exceeding 200 million units. The company started with the household appliance business and has gradually formed comprehensive business capabilities led by a variety of motor products, supporting related precision structures, drive control design and manufacturing solutions.
Since 2019, the company has continued to promote its layout in auto parts, medical and other fields, and has developed and manufactured electronic water pumps for automotive energy storage, electronic oil pumps and parking motors for new energy vehicles and commercial vehicles. and passenger cars. Its main customers include Dongfeng Motor , CATL , Xiaokang Motors, Chongqing Jinkang, Yutong Bus , etc.
The company’s revenue is growing steadily, and its diversified layout has good prospects.
During 2017-2021, the company's revenue grew steadily, from 2.023 billion yuan to 2.919 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.60%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is relatively stable, always maintaining a level of more than 200 million yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 244 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.53%, mainly affected by equity incentive expenses and raw material prices.
2022Q1 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 721 million yuan and 69 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.42% and -16.87% respectively. With the recovery of industry demand in the second half of the year and the commissioning of the Lu'an factory, the company's business is expected to perform well in the home appliances, medical, automotive and other sectors.
The domestic leader in automotive thermal management, with steady growth in the proportion of auto parts revenue.
company was formerly known as Sanhua Fuji Machinery Co., Ltd., which was established in 1994. In 2001, the share capital was changed to Sanhua Co., Ltd., and it was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2005.
company focuses on the research and application of heat pump technology and thermal management system products. Its business is mainly divided into refrigeration and air-conditioning electrical components business and automotive thermal management business.
In 2021, automotive thermal management business revenue reached 4.802 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.49%, accounting for 29.97% of the company's total revenue, an increase of 9.58pct compared with 2020. As the leader in domestic automotive thermal management, the company ranks first in the world in terms of market share of electronic expansion valve , four-way reversing valve, new energy vehicle thermal management integrated components and other product segments.
Considering the company's leading position in the field of thermal management, we believe that once the humanoid robot market opens, the demand for thermal management is also expected to grow rapidly, and the company will fully benefit.
has stable profitability and continuous growth in performance.
During 2017-2021, the company's revenue and profits continued to grow steadily, with revenue increasing from 9.581 billion yuan to 16.021 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.72%; net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 1.236 billion yuan to 1.684 billion yuan, The compound annual growth rate reached 8.04%.
Since 2021, domestic new energy vehicle sales have grown rapidly, and demand for automotive thermal management systems has increased both in volume and price. The company's performance in 2022Q1 is still very strong, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.804 billion yuan and 453 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase. 40.96% and 25.83%. Against the background of the escalating demand for thermal management of new energy vehicles, the company's business is expected to continue to grow.
5. Risk warning
◆ The release of Tesla humanoid robot is delayed; ◆ The future production and sales of Tesla humanoid robot are lower than expected; ◆ The core technology breakthrough is lower than expected; ◆ The economic cycle continues to decline.
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