Yesterday, Guoan Club arranged for the new head coach Menzo to hold a media meeting. At the meeting, a media reporter specifically raised questions about the use of goalkeepers to Menzo. Menzo's answer is: Zou Dehai's 's technology is very good, and others still need to wait for opportunities.
I believe that when I saw Menzo's explanation, everyone present would probably laugh. If Zou Dehai's "technology is very good", then this is either a slander or a blind eye.
At the meeting, Menzo also analyzed the conceded goals of the team to the media reporters. What's interesting is that when analyzing the first goal conceded, the video did not intercept the outrageous scene of Zou Dehai's kick-off goal , but instead rescued Zou Dehai's close and biased goal from Nabijiang , and then cut it off by the opponent.
I don’t know whether this is a deliberate editing of the great "technology department" of Guoan or the instruction of Li Ming , so Menzo’s analysis started with Nobijiang’s "mistake", and disappeared how bad Zou Dehai’s technology was.
In fact, if Zou Dehai's goal was not so outrageous, then there would not be such a goal. Because in the entire offensive and defensive link, the goalkeeper is easier to drive the ball than any other player's skills and awareness.
The mistake against Zou Dehai was chosen by Guoan to "ignor" it, which is definitely "there are people above to enjoy the cool air."
Even though Zou Dehai was already embarrassed, Guoan chose to ignore it, and some fans also chose to ignore it. To this day, some people say, "Zou Dehai is much better than Hou Sen..."
Which of the goalkeepers of Guoan is better? In fact, this matter is not difficult to judge at all. Just look at the data.
The data mentioned in Beijing's home court "ID: bjzhuchang" is not a simple data like losing a few goals, but a measure of the role of goalkeepers in the entire team.
This data combines all competitions from 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2202 to the present, including all competitions including the Chinese Super League, Asian Championships, FA Cup, Super Cup , and counts the number of shots by Guoan, the number of shots, and the number of goals conceded by the opponent.
First thing to be explained is that the number of goals conceded by a goalkeeper does not fully reflect the pros and cons of a goalkeeper, and the number of saves by a goalkeeper cannot judge the pros and cons of a goalkeeper. For example, if the team is weak, the opponent will be shot relatively more and conced more goals, but the goalkeeper may not save less. Therefore, every year, the top players in the Chinese Super League save list are all goalkeepers of the weak team.
Therefore, before we look at the data, we should first look at the team's overall defensive ability, especially the amount of pressure the opponent's forward encounters when defending. Generally speaking, at the professional player level, when the defensive pressure is low, the shooting rate will definitely be high, and when the defensive pressure is high, the shooting rate will be reduced. The goalkeeper's save is also related to the team's overall defensive pressure. For example, the forward's shot with guard interference will definitely have a higher success rate than the shot without guard interference.
So, let’s first look at what the rate of Guoan’s shooting is being shot by his opponent in the past four years, and we will know how strong Guoan’s defense back then.
In 2019, Guoan was shot 458 times by his opponents in various competitions throughout the year, of which 132 were shot directly, with a shooting positive rate of 28.82%.
In 2020, Guoan was shot 352 times in various competitions throughout the year, including 101 shots, with a positive rate of 28.69%.
In 2021, Guoan was shot 381 times by opponents in various competitions throughout the year, of which 141 were shot directly, with a positive rate of 37.01%.
In 2022, Guoan was shot 191 times by his opponents in various competitions throughout the year, of which 69 were shot directly, with a positive rate of 36.13%.
From the above data, it can be seen that in 2019 and 2020, the team's overall defensive ability was much better than in 2021 and 2022, and the shooting rate was 8-9 percentage points lower.
This data also conforms to our intuitive experience of watching the competition in the past three or four years, so the conclusion of this data is relatively reliable. That is: in the past two years, Guoan's overall defensive ability has declined significantly. If the opponent is shot directly by the target, the chance of being shot directly by the opponent is higher, which will test the goalkeeper's ability even more.
In 2019, Guoan used three goalkeepers, namely Zou Dehai, Guo Quanbo and Hou Sen. Among them, Hou Sen only played one game due to injury, Guo Quanbo played three games, and Zou Dehai was the other game.
According to the data, Hou Sen only played a game with Henan Jianye. The opponent shot 5 and 2 straight shots and scored 1 goal. The opponent's forward shot rate was 40%, and the opponent's forward shot rate was 50%.
Guo Quanbo's three games, the opponent's shooting rate was 42.85, and the opponent's shooting rate was 25%.
In all the games left where Zou Dehai was guarding the goal, the opponent's shooting rate was 27.76%, and the opponent's shooting rate was 27.12%.
Obviously, in 2019, Zou Dehai's data was better.
However, it should be pointed out that because the data sample size of Hou Sen and Guo Quanbo is too low, it has no reference value.
However, we can summarize the overall shooting rate, shooting rate, and the two data of different goalkeepers over the past four years, so that we can put it in a longer time dimension to test the advantages and disadvantages between several goalkeepers.
From the table, it can be seen that in the past four years, Hou Sen has the lowest rate of conceding shots, with only 26.23%, followed by Zou Dehai, with 28.66%, and finally Guo Quanbo, with 43.95%. If he shoots with two shots close to his opponent, he will score 1 goal.
Overall, Hou Sen's performance has been better than Zou Dehai in the past four years.
And this table will be more interesting if you look at it in detail.
In 2019, the national security team had strong defensive ability, and the rate of being shot was only 28.82%, and the rate of being shot was 27.12%. In 2020, Guoan's defense was also excellent, with a shooting-oriented rate of 28.69%, while the main goalkeeper Hou Sen's shooting-oriented rate of vacancies was lower than that of Zou Dehai the previous year, at 25%.
From this data, it can be seen that when the team's defensive abilities are not much different, the probability of Hou Sen being scored by the opponent is 3.69 percentage points lower than Zou Dehai.
. What Hou Sen really cheated was in 2021. This year, Guoan's defensive ability declined, and the opponent's shot was 37.01%, an increase of nearly 9 percentage points from the previous two years. But the probability of Hou Sen being scored by his opponent dropped to 21.51%.
Therefore, Hou Sen deserves to be on the national team roster in 2020 and 2021.
It can also be seen from this that no matter how Guoan's overall defensive ability is, Hou Sen's performance is relatively stable. He can keep his shot-to-be-confiscation rate at a low and stable level as much as possible.
includes this year. Although we also admit that as we grow older, Hou Sen's condition has declined, Hou Sen's shot-on-handed conceding rate is also lower than that of Zou Dehai.
In other words, Zou Dehai's 28.66% shot conceding rate in the past four years mainly relies on Guoan's excellent defense in 2019. Hou Sen has experienced 2020, and also experienced 2021, so his goalkeeping skills are more stable and have a higher level, and the confidence of this conclusion is very high.
If you segment the data in detail, you will find some more interesting things.
For example, some people will say, is Guo Quanbo really that bad? Can the opponent score a goal with two shots? Then Guo Quanbo is really "shot and die".
is not exactly the case.
Because don’t forget, in 2021, Guo Quanbo participated in the AFC Champions League with the reserve team. Facing the attacks of Kawasaki forward and Daegu FC, Guo Quanbo was in a state of abuse. After 6 AFC Champions League games, Guo Quanbo's goal conceded as high as 47.92%, which is the real "shooting on the right".
But there is no way, this is mainly because the opponent is too strong, and Guoan's shot-oriented rate has reached 39.67%. To put it bluntly, the opponent scored 10 shots and scored 2 goals.
so Guo Quanbo's data was dragged down by these six games.
Of course, Guo Quanbo's performance was not good in 2020. In 11 games, his shots were shot and conceded as high as 45.16%, which is also one of the reasons why Genesio did not need him to play the main player later.
Then this leads to a question: when Guoan faces a team that is stronger than itself or similar to it, which goalkeeper is better?
Zou Dehai’s fans may be disappointed because the answer is still - Hou Sen.
In 2021, Hou Sen played 8 championship games, and the rate of conceding was 18.18%, which can be said to be a performance of the opening level. In 2020, Hou Sen's shots and conceded goals in the AFC Champions League were 29.41%, and in the championship group, the rate of shots and conceded goals was 20.83%.
And in the two years since the Chinese Super League competition, Zou De Seafood rarely appeared and could not calculate the data of his championship group. However, in 2019, Guoan's strong conversation with the three companies of Shanghai SIPG, Evergrande, , and Luneng, , in which Zou Dehai's shot was on the right and conceding a goal was as high as 64.71%. Zou Dehai's shot at the AFC Champions League field was 33.33%.
Of course, there are some objective factors in this data. For example, in 2019, foreign players from Evergrande, Shanghai SIPG, and Luneng were all forwards like Paulinho , Hulk , and Pelle, and their abilities were indeed stronger.
However, in 2020, these foreign players did not all leave, but Hou Sen was able to hand in the championship group that was much better than Zou Dehai.
From this point of view, Zou Dehai seemed very powerless when facing teams that are stronger than Guoan or similar to Guoan, especially when facing those big-name foreign players, Zou Dehai's rate of shots with a maximum of 64.71% is basically the same as the feeling of "snatching the gun and not killing".
1 overall data, in the past three or four years, the gap between Zou Dehai and Hou Sen was not big, but from the perspective of stability and performance against stronger opponents, Hou Sen instantly defeated Zou Dehai. Zou Dehai is too dependent on Guoan's defense capabilities.
Hou Sen is the kind of goalkeeper who "he is strong, he is strong, he is strong, he is arrogant, and I am full of my true energy." No matter whether the opponent is strong or weak, or whether the teammates perform well or badly, Hou Sen can still play at his level as always.
. Zou Dehai, if the opponent is too strong, he will "snatch the gun and not kill". If his teammates perform very well, he will "successfully ascend to heaven." It tastes like Mr. Nan Guo who is "simplified" and "simplified".
This is why, Hou Sen's condition declined this year. After changing to Zou Dehai, he found that the gate of Guoan has not improved, and he was even worse than when Hou Sen was there.
The reason is very simple, it is not capable. Without Kim Min-jae , Li Lei , Wang Gang, Li Ke , Chi Zhongguo , and Schmidt's high-pressure pressing and ball control tactics, Zou Dehai was exposed.
Objectively speaking, Hou Sen's condition has indeed declined since the beginning of this year, but judging from his performance on the court, Hou Sen is still better and more stable in defense than Zou Dehai. Although the gap between the two is not too big, at least so far, Hou Sen is still the better one.
As for the offensive end that Menzo emphasized, there is no need to say anything more. A goalkeeper can create 2-3 offensive opportunities for the opponent in a game. If you say that he is good at skill, Menzo's heart is either "black" or "forced".
Anyway, he was lying, and he couldn't tell that he was blushing.
