Remember a front-page news in 2018? According to a report in the British "Daily Mail", scientists have warned that the sun will enter a "dormant period" in 2030. Since the energy on the earth comes from the sun, but according to the British scientist's model, solar activity around 2030 will be reduced by about 60%, so this is likely to cause the earth to enter the "little ice age".
Ice Age Hypothetical Picture
At that time, when the study came out, people suddenly entered panic. You should know that the "Little Ice Age" in Chinese history brought years of natural and man-made disasters, which indirectly led to the demise of the Yin and Shang, Eastern Han, Tang and Ming dynasties.
Today, 2020 has passed halfway, and it has been less than 10 years since the "climate disaster year" predicted by scientists. So, will the earth really enter the "little ice age" in 10 years? Where should humanity go? In this article, we will explain the profound things in a simple way, and tell us about the Earth 10 years from now from two levels of history and scientific principles.
The prediction of the Earth’s entry into the Little Ice Age in 2030
The reason why this issue will cause widespread concern is due to the “outstanding contributions” of two scientists, both of whom speculate that the Earth will enter around 2030 The "Little Ice River" era. Now, let’s take a look at their predictions!
霍金
First of all, Mr. 霍金, a famous physicist from Cambridge University in England and one of the greatest physicists in modern times. He once predicted the future development of the earth There will be 5 stages, the 5 stages are:
In 2032, the earth will enter the little ice stage, and the temperature will drop sharply;
In 2060, humans will be forced to leave the earth;
2160 In 2004, new humans in outer space will be produced;
In 2215, the earth will gradually go towards destruction, and living things will usher in mass extinction;
In 2600, the earth will become a flaming fireball, completely "death" .
It can be seen that Hawking is pessimistic about the future of the earth. In his opinion, mankind will have to leave the earth in less than 40 years and find another home.
Of course, although Hawking’s academic achievements during his lifetime are remarkable, it does not mean that his predictions of "insufficient scientific evidence" will eventually come true. After all, who can predict what happens hundreds of years later?
However, is only for the fact that the Earth will enter the Little Ice Age in 2032, scientists have successively found some scientific arguments, which proves that this great man’s prediction will come true in the future.
The hypothetical picture of the destruction of the earth
After Hawking, he clearly stated that "the earth will enter the Little Ice Age around 2030" and the scientist who gave the evidence was British scientist Valentina ·Professor Zarkov, the professor established a new model of solar activity cycle including solar convection zone and solar surface , and concluded through simulation calculation on this model:
in the sun In the 25th cycle of activity, the electromagnetic waves on the two levels of the sun (that is, the sun’s surface and the sun’s internal convection zone) that are listed as the object of observation begin to cancel each other out. After entering the 26th cycle (2030 to 2040), these two levels The electromagnetic waves of the world became completely asynchronous, leading to a drastic reduction in solar activity, which is expected to drop by as much as 60%.
The position of the solar troposphere
In history, 1645 to 1715 was the Mond minimum. The solar activity here was very weak and brought about 70 years of Little ice age. Therefore, Professor Zarkov believes that the weakening of solar activity after 2030 will also bring about the same effect.
According to the inferences of two academic experts, there is a possibility that the "Little Ice Age" will occur after 2030.
Let's get to know the Little Ice Age
Next, we will start from the formation principle of the Little Ice Age to understand the formation process of the Little Ice Age.
We can understand the Little Ice Age as a weakened version of the Ice Age. We know that the ice age is a period of extremely cold climate and large-scale glacier activity that has appeared in geological history. This period has only occurred 3 times in the geological history of the earth, namely the late Cambrian (about 600 million years ago), the Carboniferous-Permian (200 to 300 million years ago), and the Quaternary Great Ice Age. (About 2 million years ago). The following figure shows the timeline of the 3 Great Ice Ages in geological history:
Ice Age Timeline
As you can see from the above figure, every ice age has come Take the Quaternary Great Ice Age which is the closest to us as an example. When the Quaternary Ice Age occurred, the annual average temperature of the earth at that time was 10℃～15℃ lower than it is now. More than 1/3 of the world's continents were covered by ice and snow. The glacier area reached 52 million square kilometers, and the ice thickness reached More than 1000 meters. The temperature change curve of the Quaternary Great Ice Age is shown in the figure below:
Quaternary Great Ice Age
Obviously, the climate environment of the Ice Age is completely unsuitable for the survival of animals, let alone It is a pampered human being. Once the earth enters the Great Ice Age again, whether humans can continue to multiply is a question.
Fortunately, studies have shown that the period of the Great Ice Age is about 150 million years, and the most recent one is only 2 million years ago, so humans still have 148 million years to usher in. A great ice age. Because the time of the next Great Ice Age is too long, we won't discuss the results by then.
The Little Ice Age is a weakened version of the Great Ice Age. As the name suggests, it refers to a period that is colder than it is now, but warmer than the Great Ice Age that destroyed a lot of animal and plant life. The formation period of the Little Ice Age is about 1500 years.
Streets of the Little Ice Age
Regarding the cause of the formation of the Little Ice Age, scientists have not yet given a clear answer, but most scientists attribute it to the earth The swing of the orbit, but unfortunately no recognized astronomical data can give a comprehensive explanation.
NASA (NASA) found through observations of the sun that the number of sunspots is closely related to global temperature. When the number of sunspots on the sun's surface continued to decrease, the global temperature also produced a significant drop in temperature.
And the number of sunspots has a periodic law. This cycle is about 11 years. When the number of sunspots changes periodically, it shows the periodic change of the amount of radiation received by the earth. In addition to the 11-year cycle, the number of sunspots also shows a large fluctuation cycle, which lasts for hundreds of years. When the number of sunspots is at the bottom of periodic fluctuations, the frequency of solar activity is much lower than normal.
The figure below shows the change curve of the number of sunspots in the past 400 years:
Change in the number of sunspots
It can be clearly seen from the above figure that between 1645 and 1645 In the decades of 1715, the number of sunspots observed was about 1.7, which was far below the average (normally the number of sunspots exceeded 1500), and the solar activity was greatly reduced. At this time, the number of sunspots was extremely small. period.
According to Chinese historical records, China was experiencing the Little Ice Age from 1645 to 1715, and the average temperature was much lower than normal years. This shows that: The formation of the Little Ice Age and the number of sunspots have not changed. relationship!
According to the above picture, we can see that the Dalton Minima also occurred at the end of the 18th century. That year was a large-scale eruption of Mount Tambora. A large amount of dust entered the atmosphere to block the sun, causing the temperature to drop further, resulting in 1816 became a year without summer, and abnormal low temperature appeared in the summer of that year.
History "The Little Ice Age"
The number of sunspots changes
According to the meteorological data of England, the United Kingdom experienced severe low temperature from 1664 to 1665 and from 1813 to 1814. Disasters. According to records, the Thames in London has been frozen about 20-22 times during this period (thanks to the influence of the warm current of the Western Pacific, the Thames never freezes in normal years), and London citizens even held the event on the frozen river. Dance parties and other activities, these "dancing parties on the ice river" were recorded one by one by the painters at the time.
冰上舞蹈
Records about China’s Little Ice Age, from China by Zhu Kezhen One or two can be seen in the history of meteorology:
The 1st Little Ice Age: the end of the Yin and Shang Dynasty to the beginning of the Western Zhou Dynasty;
The 2nd Little Ice Age: the end of the Eastern Han Dynasty-Three Kingdoms-Western Jin Dynasty;
第The 3rd Little Ice Age: Late Tang-Five Dynasties-Early Northern Song Dynasty;
The 4th Little Ice Age: Late Ming and Early Qing.
Each Little Ice Age will cause a sudden drop in temperature, which will trigger the north Drought, a large reduction in food production, the formation of decades of violent social unrest and wars, which led to a sharp decline in the population.
For example, the registered population in the late Eastern Han Dynasty was about 60 million, and experienced the second Little Glacier During the period and after successive years of wars, the population of the Western Jin Dynasty was only 7.7 million.
The population in the late Tang Dynasty was 60 million, and after the third Little Ice Age, only the remaining population was left in the early Northern Song Dynasty. About 20 million people.
Similarly, the Han population reached 120 million in the late Ming Dynasty, but after the 4th Little Ice Age, the population in the early Qing Dynasty was only 50 million.
中国历代 Population Number Change Curve
There are few records of the first 3 Little Ice Ages in Chinese history. Let’s take the Ming Dynasty that experienced the 4th Little Ice Age as an example, and tell us about the Little Ice Age. The influence of the rise and fall of the dynasty.
"Harvard History of China" has made detailed statistics on the disasters in the Ming Dynasty. Among them, rare disasters broke out in the world during the Jiajing, Wanli and Chongzhen years. According to historical records:
万历 Forty-three years, Shandong Great drought;
Forty-six years of Wanli, heavy snow in Guangdong;
First year of Taichang, great hunger in Huaibei;
Four years of Tianqi, Guangzhou civil change;
Tianqi five years, heavy snowstorms in Yan'an;
Tianqi six years, Suzhou and Wuxi often wind and flood...
4da 1a# In the seventh year of Tianqi, there was a severe drought in northern Shaanxi, and then the arid areas gradually spread to all parts of the country;Chongzhen three years, Shaanxi province was severe;
Chongzhen four years, Henan drought;
In the five years of Chongzhen, there was a severe drought in Shanxi;
In the ten years of Chongzhen, Hebei and Shandong were severely drought...
The number of natural disasters that occurred during the Chongzhen period also reached the peak of all dynasties, and only historical records have recorded more. There are eight, including severe cold, drought, famine, locust plague, earthquake, pandemic, and sandstorm. The severe cold is the lowest point in China's history in the past 1,000 years. The average temperature during this period has dropped by about 2°C compared to normal periods.
The Ming Dynasty’s Little Ice Age
As the saying goes, people rely on food as their heaven, which is especially important in an agricultural society with underdeveloped productivity. For the feudal dynasty, as long as there is sufficient food, the people have food to eat, and the army has rations, there will be peace in the world, and there will even be a flourishing age such as the rule of Wenjing. On the contrary, if the people cannot eat enough food, they will rise up and overthrow the rulers.
The locust plague in the Ming Dynasty
The ancient farmland had no irrigation technology and could only rely on the sky for food. The lower temperature will directly lead to a reduction in grain production. Moreover, it is often accompanied by lower temperaturesIt is a drought, which makes the farmers of Shandong, Henan and other major grain-producing provinces become victims. If the displaced victims cannot get relief, a peasant uprising caused by hunger is inevitable.
Except for the Central Plains, lower temperatures will also cause the death of the pastures of the nomads in the Northwest. The hungry nomads have to rely on looting grain from the Central Plains to survive. This led to the end of the Ming Dynasty and the Northeast People go south to enter.
Therefore, the demise of the Ming Dynasty is not necessarily the mediocrity of Emperor Chongzhen, and there is an influencing factor that is far more terrifying than politics, economy and the military-extreme climate.
Chongzhen Emperor Zhu Youjian
Will the Little Ice Age really appear in 2030?
After reading the above article, are you thinking that the Little Ice Age had such a great influence in history. So, will the Earth really enter the Little Ice Age in 2030? There may be many pessimists shouting that humanity’s "bitter days" are coming, but I think that the "5th Little Ice Age" on the earth is far from coming.
Reason 1: Solar radiation has not been significantly reduced due to the decrease in solar activity
According to the research results of Professor Valentina Zharkova, solar activity will drop by 60% in 2030. However, solar activity and solar radiation that gives the earth light and heat are not a concept. A significant decrease in solar activity does not mean that solar radiation is also greatly reduced. Observations from the
spacecraft show that the amount of solar radiation received outside the earth’s atmosphere is almost a constant value, about 1366W per square meter. When the solar activity changes, the total radiation received by the earth changes slightly, but it is less than 0.1% higher than in normal years. For example, even during the "Little Ice Age" from 1646 to 1715, the total solar radiation was only reduced to 1360.0W per square meter, only 0.4% lower than the average.
Sunspot
Many people have seen this and asked: Why has the solar activity decreased drastically, but the solar radiation has not decreased significantly?
This is because the energy given to us by the sun is mainly concentrated in the longer wavelength visible light and infrared bands. When the solar activity increases, the radiation enhancement is mainly the shorter-wavelength X-ray, extreme ultraviolet and ultraviolet bands, and their proportion in the energy of solar radiation is originally very low, so it cannot cause a large change in the total amount.
Solar radiation spectrum
So, if it is only because of the decrease in solar activity, it is inferred that the earth has reached the conclusion that the solar radiation has decreased, it would be a big mistake!
Reason 2: Human behavior offsets the natural changes
The scientist’s model does not consider the impact of human society. Nowadays, the impact of human beings on the earth exceeds any period in history. The time for the Earth to enter the Little Ice Age may be greatly extended by humans.
First of all, since the industrial society has been arbitrarily emitted by humans such as carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the strong greenhouse effect has caused the global temperature to rise sharply. According to data from the World Meteorological Organization, this year’s northern hemisphere’s summer will be the hottest since temperature records were recorded.
Because of the greenhouse effect, it offsets the cooling effect on the earth due to the weakening of solar activity.
The factory emits CO2
Secondly, due to global warming, the polar glaciers and the glaciers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are rapidly melting. We know that because the crystal clear glaciers can reflect sunlight, the temperature in the north and south poles can be maintained at a low value.
Once these glaciers melt, the sun radiated by the sun will be absorbed by the exposed land, which will accelerate the temperature rise.
Glacier under the sun
The figure below shows the temperature change curve in the past 2000 years. It can be seen that the temperature has been on a downward trend before 1800.
Since mankind entered the industrial society, it can be seen from the temperature curve after 1880 in the figure below that the global temperature is accelerating at an unprecedented rate.
The temperature change after 1880
Although the global temperature has been soaring since 1880, the solar activity observed by humans has been in a declining stage during this period, as shown in the figure below The yellow curve is shown.
Obviously, the weakening of solar activity since 1880 has not led to a decrease in temperature. The carbon dioxide emitted by human industrial society has dominated the global climate.
Solar activity and global temperature changes
So in my opinion, instead of worrying about the Earth entering the Little Ice Age in 2030, it is better to worry about whether the global climate will warmer further!
Do you think the earth will enter the Little Ice Age after 2030?
Which one do you think is "global cold" or "global warming" as the earth's destination in the coming decades?
Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss!
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