2022 The summer of 2022 was an unprecedented year, with the United States experiencing five "one in a thousand" floods: St. Louis and Kentucky eastern in July, southeast in Illinois southeast in August, death valley and Dallas. "The heavy rain combined with favorable surface conditions, i.e., impermeable surfaces, have caused flash torrents and large areas of flooding in the city," said Dr. Hong Yang, professor of hydrology and remote sensing at the School of Civil Engineering and Environment. "The Gallory School of Engineering Sciences, University of Oklahoma. "Continuous warming and aging of water infrastructure will exacerbate flood risk."
Hong led a research team composed of research from the National Strong Storm Laboratory of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA) hydrological and meteorological scientists Dr. Li Zhi and Dr. Jonathan Gourley. Their new study published in the journal Earth's Future shows that the future of the United States will become more frequent and broader, but less seasonal.
In a previous study, the team demonstrated that the extremes of flash floods are increasing by 7.9%, including higher peak traffic and faster arrival times nationwide.
In their new study, “Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Floods in the United States: Current Situation and Prediction of Warm Climate in the Future,” the researchers used computer models to simulate changes in continuous rainfall and flooding in the United States, as well as changes in rainfall and flood frequency, spatial scale and seasonality in key climate departments.
"Our model shows that seasonal abatement of rainfall and flooding may lead to more random and more unpredictable extreme events throughout the year," Gourley said. "The specific impacts shown by our flood season model will begin earlier in areas dominated by snow in the west, while flooding in the east may be delayed. We also found that the correlation between extreme rainfall and flood outbreaks in the west becomes strong. Strong, but the future of the East is weaker."
Overall, their study predicts that flood frequency will increase overall by 101.7% and flood range will increase by 44.9%, mainly due to future extreme rainfall and variability.
"Predicting future floods has become more challenging due to changes in surface conditions," Li said. “Our past experience and knowledge may not be applicable to preparing for future floods.”
Hong added: “It is urgent to develop knowledge about floods dynamically to design flood infrastructure, especially given that many flood infrastructures such as dams, flood dams, drainage systems and waterways were built 50 to 100 years ago. We need to take more resilient flood control measures in cities to deal with flood risks.”
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-