Is this year the coolest year in the next 10 years?
In response to this statement that appeared on the Internet, recently, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences issued a special explanation, saying that the reference to the Weibo official account was a misinterpretation of the original meaning of the paper.
Explanation on the misinterpretation of research conclusions by Weibo public accounts
Scholars from our institute published an academic paper titled "Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific Subtropical High" published in "Nature Communications" in 2020, focusing on Possible changes in the northwest Pacific subtropical high pressure by 2100 under the extremely high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5). This thesis work is not in any way related to the occurrence and prediction of recent extreme heat events.
To predict long-term climate change at the end of this century, climate models must be used. However, due to the level of scientific and technological development, there are still uncertainties in current model results. In terms of climate projections, this is reflected in the differences in the responses of different models to the same greenhouse gas forcing. For example, the response of the 35 climate models participating in the "Fifth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project" (CMIP5) to the northwest Pacific subtropical high The estimates vary widely from each other. In order to reduce this uncertainty and provide more accurate long-term change prediction results, this paper adopts a method known internationally as "Emergent Constraint". The basic principle is based on Reliable physical connections between current climate states and future states, using abundant current observational data to correct deviations in original projections from climate models.
In summary, this paper does not involve the issue of temperature prediction in the next 10 years, nor does it propose or support the conclusion that "this year will be the coolest year in the next 10 years." The reference to the Weibo official account is a misinterpretation of the original meaning of the paper, and it is hereby explained.
popular science blogger @中国 Meteorological Enthusiast also said that the rumors originated from mistranslation and over-interpretation of the paper title.
The team of researcher Zhou Tianjun from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics used the "emergent constraint method" to correct the deviation of the subtropical high prediction and correct the "overheating" problem of the climate model. However, recent studies have pointed out that global warming will lead to an increase in strong western Pacific subtropical high events. This year may not necessarily be the coldest year in the next ten years, but the frequency of extreme high temperatures and floods is likely to increase in the future.
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