Many netizens said that the first thing they say when meeting someone now is "are you positive?" and the second thing is "have you bought the antipyretic medicine?"
Obviously, these two common phrases contain netizens’ concern about the shortage of antipyretics.
So, at this moment, should we reflect a little on what is causing the shortage of antipyretics? The editor is not a professional, but I have summarized these three points based on experience:
1. From centralized isolation and silence to sudden release, sharp turns, fast speed, and resolute action. Before the sudden turn, many cities may not have had time to consider stocking up on medicines.
In fact, due to the isolation and medication use in the cabins, each city has data. How many people will be infected, how many people will have fever, and how many antipyretics each person will use on average after having a fever. These can all be counted and estimated. With a little conscientiousness, you can be prepared. Why is there no
? Why do we only focus on nucleic acid detection and ? This is where we need to summarize and reflect.
With common sense, we all know that letting go is just a matter of sooner or later, and a matter of timing.
Since liberalization will happen sooner or later, medicines will be needed sooner or later, and the explosive growth after liberalization requires preparation in advance.
2. Sudden outbreak of demand for antipyretics.
With Omicron's high transmissibility, infection is inevitable after it is released. Taking a city with a population of 20 million as an example, the peak number of infections is about 370,000 people per day. Even in the steady period, about 70,000 people will be infected every day.
Based on this estimate, the number of daily infections across the country may exceed 5 million during the peak period. Compared with the previous centralized isolation stage, the data of
has increased by several orders of magnitude.
3. The production and supply of antipyretics will take time to recover.
Antipyretic drugs go through at least four links from raw materials to patients, including raw material production, pharmaceutical company production, logistics and transportation, and distribution channel procurement and sales. Each of these four links takes time to complete.
Due to the centralized purchasing and epidemic management implemented the year before last, the market demand for cold and fever product preparations has been on a downward trend. The drop in demand has naturally led to a reduction in the supply of APIs. At the same time, pharmaceutical companies need two conditions for production. One is whether the original approval document is still within the specified time. If it exceeds the time limit, the procedures need to be re-applied, which takes time. Second, there is an approval document but the production line needs to be adjusted, which also takes time. In the past two years, demand was low and production was low. Pharmaceutical companies were not prepared for the sudden demand. Although
is produced and distributed at the same time, it takes about two months from shortage to fully meeting demand. It takes about a month from preparation to meeting demand for raw materials. After the pharmaceutical factory produces the medicine, it takes about a month to distribute it to the sales stores.
The summary of the above three reasons is neither adequate nor comprehensive. It is just a little bit of personal thinking and does not represent an evaluation of epidemic prevention measures. It is just a personal analysis and summary. Please don't take it personally, and don't misunderstand it, otherwise the editor will not be able to bear it.
